Canada: Untangling Pipeline Projects to Realize Energy Export Potential

Thursday, May 31st, 2012

Canada: Untangling Pipeline Projects to Realize Energy Export Potential

by Thomas White

May 25, 2012

For a country richly endowed in natural resources, and with growing energy production, Canada has been facing a perplexing problem in recent years. While its producers are supplying oil and gas to U.S. refineries at prices below the international market, Canadian refineries on the east coast are paying higher international prices for the oil they import. It may seem odd that a major energy producer like Canada imports oil at all. But for Canada, it’s unavoidable. Truth be told, the Maple Leaf lacks the necessary infrastructure to transport oil from its domestic fields in the central part of the country to markets on the east coast.

With more than 175 billion barrels of proven deposits, in oil and oil equivalents, Canada has the third largest energy reserves in the world. Most of the reserves are in the Alberta province, which has traditionally shipped most of its oil exports to the Midwest U.S. Oil output in Alberta has steadily increased in recent years, the result of large investments to extract crude from oil sands. At the same time, oil and gas output in American Midwestern states such as North Dakota has also gone up substantially as improvements in fracking technology have allowed for increased energy production from shale deposits. This has led to a supply glut to refineries in the area, with average prices realized by oil producers dropping. For instance, when the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil benchmark was trading well above $100 a barrel, Canadian oil fetched an average of $75 a barrel in the U.S. By some estimates, Canadian oil producers who export 1.55 million barrels of oil and equivalents a day to the U.S. Midwestern states lose nearly $15 billion annually because of this price differential.

Until recently, Canadian oil producers were banking on the expansion of a major pipeline project that would eventually stretch from Alberta all the way to the Gulf Coast of Texas, where prices are set by the WTI benchmark. The first phase of this project, completed in 2010, currently brings Canadian oil to the U.S. Midwest. The second leg of the pipeline connects to Cushing, Oklahoma, where the world’s largest oil storage facility is located. The final stretch of the pipeline, which is expected to be completed by the end of next year, will drain the excess supplies from Cushing to the Gulf Coast. To accommodate the increasing oil output in Canada, a second pipeline from Alberta to Nebraska, which will join the existing pipeline, has also been planned. When completed, this project will potentially reduce the oversupply in the Midwest, and lift average prices for Canadian producers.

However, the pipeline expansion project from Alberta to Nebraska is now on hold after the U.S. government delayed permission on environmental concerns. The project will be reviewed again next year, only after a comprehensive environmental impact study is completed and alternate routes are evaluated. Nevertheless, the Cushing to Texas stretch of the pipeline was approved by the U.S. government earlier this year and is expected to be completed by the second half of 2013. In addition, an existing pipeline that now brings oil from the Gulf Coast to Cushing is being reconfigured and expanded to carry oil in the opposite direction.

Stung by the delays in the Alberta-Texas pipeline expansion, the Canadian government has been trying to speed up approvals for the $5.5 billion Northern Gateway Pipelines project connecting Alberta to British Colombia on the Pacific coast. The new transport project will seek to open new international markets for Canadian oil and thereby reduce the dependency on the U.S. market. What’s more, from the port of Kitimat in British Colombia, where the pipeline will end, the oil can then be easily transported to markets in Asia where demand remains high. Still, this project too has also been delayed on concerns over its impact on the environment and on the Native Indian population along the pipeline’s proposed route.

Another project to significantly expand the capacity of the existing Trans Mountain Pipeline System, which connects Alberta to refineries in the Vancouver area, has so far not faced much opposition. And the proposal to build a pipeline from Alberta to Montreal in the east, called the East Coast Pipeline Project, is at a very early stage and may take several years for the necessary approvals.

Nevertheless, lower energy export price realizations have become a drag on the country’s economic growth, as acknowledged by the Bank of Canada in its recent Monetary Policy Report. The central bank said ‘the price of oil that Canada exports has declined’ and the ‘deterioration in the oil-related terms of trade reduces Canada’s real gross domestic income’. Earlier studies by the central bank estimated that for every 10% increase in crude oil prices, real GDP growth gains by up to 0.3%.

The significance of the energy sector to the Canadian economy should only increase in the future as oil output expands, making it all the more important that these pipeline projects are completed without further delay. It is estimated that oil production in Canada will increase from the current 3.6 million barrels a day to more than 6 million barrels by the end of this decade. The Canadian Energy Research Institute expects that this increase in oil output will generate 700,000 jobs and add $3.3 trillion to economic output over a period of 25 years. The only apparent bottleneck that may prevent Canada from achieving this potential growth is the insufficient pipeline capacity. Promoting major infrastructure projects without ignoring environmental concerns demands a fine balance that most governments and policy makers find extremely difficult to manage. But it appears that Canada must find a way to untangle its energy pipeline projects and expand its export markets for energy. The alternative is living with the economically painful paradox of exporting cheap oil and importing the same commodity at higher prices.

Copyright © Thomas White

Tags: Canada Imports, Canadian Oil, energy, Energy Producer, Energy Production, Energy Reserves, fracking, India, Midwestern States, Necessary Infrastructure, Oil Exports, Oil Output, Oil Producers, Oil Refineries, Oil Sands, Perplexing Problem, Pipeline Project, Pipeline Projects, Shale, Shale Deposits, Shale Oil, Supply Glut, Thomas White, Time Oil, West Texas Intermediate, Wti Crude Oil
Posted in Brazil, Markets | Comments Off

Weighing the Evidence of Oil and Gold Stocks

Sunday, April 22nd, 2012

Weighing the Evidence of Oil and Gold Stocks

By Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer, U.S. Global Investors

The MSCI Emerging Markets and the S&P 500 indices have increased double digits since the beginning of the year. Investors should be thrilled, but instead of cheers, the only sounds the markets are hearing are crickets. Many have been asking, where are the investors?

Since January 1, another $12 billion left U.S. stock mutual funds while about $100 billion went into bond funds. This continued the mutual fund flow trend that has been ongoing for several months now.

After leading markets since the rebound began in 2009, natural resources and gold took a break while severely punished stocks saw a big bounce in the first quarter of 2012. Taking a look at the returns below, the S&P Global Natural Resources Index rose only 4 percent and the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index lost 9 percent.

As investment managers, we continuously weigh the evidence, dissecting macro factors in the market and comparing historical data. We believe this is the best way to find the next opportunity for our shareholders. Using history as our guide, we compared the performance of oil and gold companies against the results of the underlying commodities over the past three years.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has seen a tremendous rise over the past three years. In April 2009, the price of oil was $46; today, it’s $104. The SIG Oil Exploration & Productions Index closely followed the rise of Texas tea from April 2009 until August 2011. That’s when the disparity between oil and oil stocks began to gradually increase.

Over the past three years, the price of oil and the index have had an average ratio of 0.21. Currently, it’s 0.26. That may not seem like a big difference but today’s ratio represents a three-year high and is a 3.13 standard deviation event. This means the divergence between oil and oil stocks is in “extreme territory” and, under normal assumptions, there is a 99 percent probability that the gap will close. Either the price of oil should come down or oil stocks go up, or a combination of both.

Gold and gold stocks are also experiencing extraordinary circumstances.

As we mentioned last week, gold equities continue to lag the price of gold, with the trend accelerating recently. Below, you can see that for most of the last three years, gold stocks have outperformed gold. Recently, though, bullion has surpassed gold stocks while gold companies have significantly declined.

The price of bullion and the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDM) have had a three-year average ratio of 0.94. Similar to oil and oil stocks, the ratio is now 1.28, a 3.06 standard deviation event.

CIBC commented earlier this week on the extreme disparity, saying the minor drop in bullion compared with the huge drop in gold stocks suggests that “a massive oversold position for the equities has occurred in the last month.” This is an “unprecedented” period for gold stocks, says CIBC.

Case Study: Newmont vs. Treasuries

Many Americans probably own gold producer Newmont Mining, one of the world’s largest gold producers. The shares were most likely acquired not through individual purchase, but rather through a fund that tracks the broad index, the S&P 500, as it is the only gold company included in the index.

The company also boasts the highest dividend yield in the industry. Newmont pays an annualized dividend yield of nearly 3 percent, which is at least a percent higher than the 5- and 10-year Treasuries.

Through dividends, gold companies including Newmont make a commitment to return capital to shareholders. While gold stocks remain at depressed levels, dividends are especially attractive, as investors get “paid to wait” for shares to appreciate.

We believe in thinking contrarian and keeping a close eye on historical trends to discover inflection points, as stocks tend to eventually revert to their means. For example, in March 2009, we noted significant changes signaling the market had hit rock bottom; following that time through the end of the first quarter, the S&P 500 Index rose more than 100 percent.

Today’s extreme divergence in oil and gold stocks and their underlying commodities presents a rare opportunity: what these stocks need now are investors to take advantage of it.

Tags: Bond Funds, Chief Investment Officer, Double Digits, Extreme Territory, Frank Holmes, Gold Companies, Gold Miners, gold stocks, Macro Factors, Msci Emerging Markets, Mutual Fund Flow, Nyse Arca, Nyse Index, Oil Exploration, oil stocks, Price Of Oil, Texas Tea, U S Global Investors, West Texas Intermediate, Wti Crude Oil
Posted in Markets | Comments Off

Oil and Natural Gas Ratio Explodes to 52:1

Thursday, April 12th, 2012

By EconMatters

The ink on our last article is barely dry when its dire prediction actually came true 48 hours later–natural gas price dropping below $2, a level not seen in over a decade. Henry Hub natural gas front month futures declined to $1.982 per 1,000 cubic feet (mcf) on Wed. April 11, its lowest level since January 28, 2002, when the price hit $1.91. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil rose by $1.68 to finish at $102.70 per barrel; Brent rude increased by 30 cents to finish at $120.18.

The confluence of these price movements also brought the ratio between WTI and Henry Hub to a historical record high of 52:1 (see chart below) while the ratio of Brent to Henry Hub is a jaw-dropping 60:1 ! (And we thought the 25:1 ratio reached back in August 2009, also a historical high at the time, was parabolic.)

Chart Source: ICIS.com

Crude oil and natural gas are both energy commodities and should logically have a high degree of correlation. Theoretically, based on an energy equivalent basis, crude oil and natural gas prices should have a 6 to 1 ratio. However, due to various market characteristics, the price of oil typically had traded 8-12x that of natural gas in the past 25 years or so (see chart above). That historical pattern has started to deteriorate since 2009 primarily due to the combination of rising domestic production from unconventional shale gas depressing price levels, while geopolitical events in the MENA region (Middle East & North Africa) adding fear premium to the global crude oil prices.

Natural gas lacks the global market structure like crude oil, and tends to be regionally based thus less impacted by external sources. Oil, on the other hand, is a commodity with global demand drivers; and along with gold, trades as an inflation hedge against a weakening US Dollar.

In most of Europe and Asia, the price of natural gas/LNG is typically linked to crude oil under multiyear contracts. So while the spike in Brent helped to boost natural gas markers elsewhere, with practically zero LNG export capacity in the U.S., not even Fed’s two rounds of quantitative easing could lift the languishing Henry Hub.

The chart below illustrates just how disconnected U.S. natural gas price is vs. price levels in Asia, Europe and Brent crude oil.

Chart Source: Valero Corp. conference presentation, March 2012

LNG (liquefied natural gas) is a relatively new technology that some believe has the potential to transform natural gas into a true global commodity. Unfortunately, as discussed before:

Realistically, U.S. gas cargos may have a hard time competing with other exporters such as Russia, Qatar and the up-and-comer—Australia–in the Asian and European markets due to logistic disadvantage.

For U.S. LNG exports to make economic sense, domestic gas price would need to stay low, with high enough international LNG prices, and if the LNG prices are still tied to crude oil (which could change depending on market development), then crude oil prices would have to remain elevated.

While low prices are killing some of the natural gas producers, consumers will get a break via lower electricity costs. Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas trading at an 87% discount to Brent crude oil price is something even the oil industry appreciates. Valero (VLO), the world’s largest independent refiner, said in a presentation this January that its refinery operations use up to 600,000 mmBtus/day of natural gas at full utilization. Betting on “low U.S. natural Gas prices for many years to come”, Valero has several hydrogen and hydrocraker projects scheduled to complete by the end of 2012 to take full advantage of the low natural gas prices.

With the prospect of domestic natural gas prices remaining low and disconnected from global oil and gas prices for foreseeable future, U.S-based manufacturers of plastics, fertilizers and other products that use natural gas as a feedstock such as Dow Chemicals (DOW), Westlake Chemical Corp. (WLK), Potash (POT) and CF Industries (CF) are set to benefit from cheap U.S. natural gas as opposed to European and Asian competitors who do not.

©EconMattersAll Rights Reserved

Tags: Chart Source, Crude Oil Prices, Demand Drivers, Energy Commodities, Energy Equivalent, External Sources, Gas Lng, Geopolitical Events, Global Demand, Henry Hub, Inflation Hedge, Market Characteristics, Market Structure, Mena Region, Multiyear Contracts, Natural Gas Price, Natural Gas Prices, Price Of Natural Gas, Price Of Oil, Wti Crude Oil
Posted in Markets | Comments Off

Historical Trends Favoring Commodities, Stocks

Sunday, March 4th, 2012

Historical Trends Favoring Commodities, Stocks

By Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer, U.S. Global Investors

In January, we felt winds had shifted among global markets, anticipating that easing actions taken by many central banks around the world might provide welcome relief to investors. Two months later, we are seeing the positive results from their actions.
For the third month in a row, a leading indicator for global manufacturing activity, the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), remained above its three-month moving average as of February 29.

Going back to the 1998 inception of JP Morgan’s index through the end of 2011, there have been only 20 occurrences of “cross-above.” When this happened, there was a strong probability that copper, oil, and materials and energy stocks would head higher the following three months. Take a look at the historical data which charts the probability of a positive return, as well as the three-month median return after the “cross-above” happened:

So far in 2012, the historical pattern has been holding up. Over January and February, copper increased 13 percent; the S&P 500 Energy Index added 7 percent and the S&P 500 Materials Index went up 10 percent. WTI crude oil, while rising a significant 8 percent in the last two months, has not quite hit its historical median return. Read further to see why we believe oil should continue to increase.

As the global easing cycle continues, the trend of higher prices for these commodities and energy and materials should continue. “Global central banks are in full-on expansion mode,” says BCA. Early last year, many countries around the world were much more concerned about stemming inflation. This time around, ISI Group says that 99 stimulative policy initiatives have been announced from countries around the world since late August. Most recently, central banks from China, Hungary, Ireland, Japan and Sweden, announced initiatives such as boosting lending, easing bank rules, plans to create jobs and cutting reserve rates. This monetary easing should provide a boost to equities, especially commodity-related stocks and natural resources funds, such as the Global Resources Fund (PSPFX).

This is only one trend advisors can use with clients to counteract the hangover of apathy many investors are feeling. I recently talked about other positive trends that we are seeing, such as the fact that nearly 70 percent of the S&P 500 companies are paying dividends at an annualized rate greater than the yield on a 5-year Treasury. Considering that the latest CPI number for the U.S. is 2.9 percent year-over-year and the 5-Year Treasury is less than one percent, fixed-income investors are most likely earning a negative real interest rate on their money. Dividend payers appear to be attractive in today’s low-yield environment.

Read Cures for the Apathetic Investor now to help your clients use history and probability to their advantage.

Tags: Central Banks, Chief Investment Officer, Countries Around The World, Energy Index, energy stocks, Expansion Mode, Frank Holmes, Global Markets, Isi Group, Jp Morgan, Last Two Months, Leading Indicator, Moving Average, Occurrences, Pmi, Policy Initiatives, Purchasing Managers Index, U S Global Investors, Welcome Relief, Wti Crude Oil
Posted in Markets | Comments Off

Energy and Natural Resources Market Radar (December 28, 2011)

Tuesday, December 27th, 2011

Energy and Natural Resources Market Radar (December 28, 2011)

Strengths

• A weak dollar and a new lending program from the European Central Bank helped drive prices for commodities and commodities-related stocks higher this week. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude oil finished the week near $100 per barrel, up about 7 percent. Copper closed near $3.46 per pound, up 4 percent for the week.
• A record level of deals in the coal industry this year has slashed the number of potential takeout targets in Australia, the world’s largest coal-exporting country. Rising demand in China and India has pushed mergers and acquisitions globally to a record high total of $34.5 billion in deals this year. This compares to $30.3 billion in deals last year. Overall, 192 companies have been acquired. Australian deals reached an all-time high this month with the $5.1 billion Whitehaven–Aston deal and the $2.1 billion Gloucester Coal–Yanzhou Coal deal.
• China’s oil refiners boosted daily processing to a record 9.25 million barrels a day in November and increased net diesel imports to the highest level this year in October in order to alleviate a local shortage partially caused by seasonal maintenance.
• The latest Chinese import data shows a major jump in refined copper imports. Despite ongoing concern about a slowing Chinese economy, Macquarie Research highlighted that net imports of refined copper will be 700,000-750,000 tons higher in the second half of 2011 compared to the first six months of the year. Additionally, it was reported this week that refined-copper imports by China, the world’s largest user, climbed to the highest level since June 2009 as lower prices in London prompted an arbitrage trade.

Weaknesses

• Barclays recently analyzed commodity price performance for 2011. It noted that at the end of 2010, only seven out of 48 commodities showed negative price performance. This year, however, only 11 show a positive price performance. In addition, this year’s best performer, which is feeder cattle up 18 percent, is showing a dismal performance compared to last year when cotton led the way with a 93 percent increase. Only seven commodities have posted double-digit price gains for the year, while 37 did in 2010. Barclays said, “This year’s Christmas tree looks like it has been ravaged by the storm of European sovereign debt.”
• Data published by Worldsteel this week showed a 4 percent month-over-month decline in global steel production during November. Global production now totals 1,405 million tons on an annualized basis, marking the fifth-consecutive month below 1,500 million tons annualized.
• Bloomberg News reported that speculators have reduced bets on commodities to a 31-month low on concern that global economic growth is slowing. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data shows that money managers cut net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 9.6 percent during the week ended December 13.

Opportunities

• After growing almost 24 percent in 2011, Komatsu, the world’s second-largest mining equipment maker, expects growth of at least 10 percent next year. President of the Mining Equipment Division, Kazuhiko Iwata, said that demand for equipment in Indonesia, Australia and Chile remains strong despite turbulence in financial markets and a slowing global economy. With mined ore grade degradation set to be a persistent theme in the coming years, analysts at Macquarie see the mining equipment industry as the main beneficiaries.
• It is reported that in its first-ever report about thermal coal, the International Energy Agency (IEA) paints a fairly rosy outlook for the next five years. The report forecast strong demand for thermal coal from China and India until 2016. The IEA said that consumption would continue to expand over the next several years despite calls from environmentalists to cut reliance on this carbon-intensive fuel as a primary energy source. The IEA projects average thermal coal demand to grow by 600,000 tons per day over the next five years. This is a remarkable pace but is actually slower than the growth experienced from 2000 to 2010 when demand growth averaged 720,000 tons per day, according to Nomura Securities.
• Reuters reported that Monsanto won approval to sell a genetically engineered variety of drought-resistant corn in the United States, raising hopes for increased production of the grain. The U.S. Department of Agriculture approved the use of the modified corn after reviewing environmental and risk assessments, public comments, and research data from the seed giant. The company has been developing the product for years in collaboration with German chemical firm BASF.

Threats

• Rising costs to develop natural resources projects remain a common theme many companies are grappling with. For instance, Anglo American announced a 15 percent increase in the capital cost of its Minas-Rio iron ore project in Brazil. This is in addition to more than $5 billion the company had previously projected. The company said the increase in cost is due to general inflation in the mining industry coupled with the need to manage construction of the project around newly discovered caves of special scientific interest. Also, CAP, Chile’s largest steel producer and iron ore miner, has said that the cost of developing its Cerro Negro Norte project has increased nearly 40 percent to $800 million. The increase has pushed the anticipated start-up of the 4 million tons-per-year mine to fourth quarter of 2013 instead of the first quarter.
• Metal demand in China may grow at a slower pace in 2012 and prices may be lower than this year, Wang Huajun, deputy secretary-general of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association said at a forum in Shanghai. “It is unlikely to see metals demand to grow at more than 10 percent next year, given the macroeconomic environment,” Wang said. Refined copper demand may increase 6 percent, while primary aluminum consumption may grow 8 percent, he said. Lead and zinc consumption may rise by 7 percent and 5 percent, respectively, Wang said.

Tags: Agriculture, Chinese Economy, Chinese Import, Coal Industry, Commodity Price, day in november, Diesel Imports, Gloucester Coal, Import Data, Market Radar, Mergers Acquisitions, Mergers And Acquisitions, Months Of The Year, Oil Refiners, Price Performance, Refined Copper, Seasonal Maintenance, Weak Dollar, West Texas Intermediate, Wti Crude Oil, Yanzhou Coal
Posted in Markets | Comments Off

The Many Factors Fueling a Return to $100 Oil (Holmes)

Sunday, November 13th, 2011

The Many Factors Fueling a Return to $100 Oil

By Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer
U.S. Global Investors

Oil prices rose about 5 percent this week to finish only a dollar short of regaining triple-digit status. Since dipping below $80 per barrel on October 3, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices have increased almost 28 percent. This increase is nearly twice that of the S&P 500 Index, up 15 percent since October 3, but reinforces a recent trend for oil prices—as equities go, so goes oil.

This chart put together by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), illustrates how WTI crude oil prices and equities have moved nearly in tandem over the past few months.

The EIA says “the recent strong relationship between oil and equity prices resembles that seen during the economic downturn and recovery in 2008-2010.” According to EIA data, crude oil and the S&P 500 Index have had a positive correlation in 12 of the past 13 quarters. A positive correlation had not occurred once in the previous 35 quarters. In fact, crude oil and equities experienced a negative correlation during five quarters over that time period.

This recent strong correlation implies that equities have the potential to move higher if oil prices continue along their current trajectory. Given oil’s current supply/demand fundamentals, there’s a good chance of that happening.

Demand Holds Strong Despite Global Uncertainty

One of the key drivers for rising oil prices is demand, which has held steady despite the turmoil in Europe, sluggish economic growth in the United States and a slowdown in China. In fact, Citigroup says there is “no indication of a demand collapse unfolding as in 2008.”

While year-over-year comparisons show global demand growth is slowing, Citigroup points out that this year’s data compares with a 2010 period propped up by government policies encouraging consumption, such as the Fed’s QE2 program. Citigroup says these comparisons are “obscuring the fact that demand continues to grow and, barring a sharp derailment of the global economy, is on course to make a record high in 4Q11 and on an annual basis in 2012.”

By the end of 2012, the EIA forecasts world crude oil and liquid fuel consumption will total nearly 90 million barrels per day. This chart from PIRA carries the demand curve further into the future, forecasting demand to surpass 110 million barrels per day by 2025.

What is driving this increase? The emerging market transportation sector.

In its World Energy Outlook released this week, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) says crude oil consumption will be driven by developing countries over the next 20 years. These countries will account for 90 percent of the world’s population growth, 70 percent of the increase in economic output and 90 percent of global energy demand growth over the period from 2010 to 2035.

The agency predicts global crude oil demand will rise to 99 million barrels per day by 2035 “as the total number of passenger cars doubles to almost 1.7 billion in 2035.” If this prediction holds true, it means that there will roughly be as many cars in the world as there were people 100 years ago.

Long-term, Short-term Constraints Threaten Supply

WTI prices have remained in backwardation since shifting from three years of contango in late October. Contango means that the price of commodity contracts expiring in the near term is lower than the forward, future price of crude contracts. Backwardation is the opposite: The price of a commodity today is higher than the future purchase price.

While everyday investors may get tripped up by the contango/backwardation jargon of oil markets, the most important thing to recognize is that this significant shift signals there are short-term constraints in supply pushing prices higher. In fact, crude oil inventories in the United States are now at the lowest seasonal level in seven years, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. When the shift occurred, BofA analysts wrote this “is a major development for the crude oil market” and “signals $105 oil.”

Backwardation is a short-term signal; a long-term signal is the growing amount of geopolitical unrest bubbling up to the surface in the world’s largest oil-producing region.

This week, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released a detailed report that verified many suspicions of nuclear proliferation in Iran. The IAEA noted it was concerned about Iran’s “activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile.”

This news does not sit well with others in the region, such as Israel, who have threatened military action should the country deem Iran a security threat. A research note from Barclays articulates the combustible situation with a quote from Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, writers for Haaretz: “A few more weeks of tension and one party or another might make a fatal mistake and drag the region into war.”

War and/or unrest in the region have the potential to have a tremendous effect on oil prices because of its proximity to the majority of global oil production. PIRA says that the Middle East accounts for over 70 percent of OPEC oil production and account for over 95 percent of the cartel’s capacity growth along with North Africa.

It’s not only production that is threatened. One of the largest chokepoints along the global oil supply chain is the Strait of Hormuz, which roughly 90 percent of all Persian Gulf oil tankers—some 18 million barrels per day—pass through, according to Barclays. With Iran controlling the entire northern border of the strait, there is a significant chance for disruptions should the country fall into conflict or war.

This is just one example of oil’s geopolitical DNA. With more than 40 percent of the world’s oil controlled under autocratic rule, oil supply in democratic nations likely depends on the state of autocratic nations.

Following the death of Moammar Gaddafi, The Wall Street Journal reports that oil companies are eager to begin pumping oil in Libya again but the new regime is still battling Gaddafi supporters and the country is a long way from being unified. Barclays notes several concerns: oil fields need to be repaired, Interim Transitional National Council has experienced growing factions, and there’s been a proliferation of weapons.

There’s also sanctions and persistent violence in Syria. In Yemen, an oil export pipeline was blown up a couple of weeks ago, making it the fifth attack in just a month. Barclays indicated that “almost half of Yemen’s 260,000 barrels per day of oil output has been offline since March” and it doesn’t look like the situation will improve any time in the near future.

Trends in Demand and Supply Maintain Pressure on Prices

While BofA analysts think that oil prices could be headed toward $105 per barrel in the short term, the IEA offered a longer-term view that should give natural resources investors calm for many years to come.

The IEA says “trends on both the oil demand and supply sides maintain pressure on prices. We assume the average IEA crude oil import price remains high, approaching $120 per barrel (in 2010 dollars) in 2035 (over $210 per barrel in nominal terms).”

That’s a distant projection but it certainly illustrates why you should consider investing a portion of your wealth in oil.

Tags: Chief Investment Officer, Citigroup, Collapse, Crude Oil Prices, Current Supply, Economic Downturn, Eia, Energy Information Administration, Frank Holmes, Global Demand, Government Policies, Negative Correlation, Positive Correlation, Qe2, Rising Oil Prices, U S Energy, U S Global Investors, West Texas Intermediate, Wti Crude Oil, Wti Prices
Posted in Markets | Comments Off

Energy and Natural Resources Market Cheat Sheet (November 14, 2011)

Sunday, November 13th, 2011

Energy and Natural Resources Market Cheat Sheet (November 14, 2011)

Strengths

• The International Energy Agency monthly report indicated that Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) oil inventory data fell by 800,000 barrels per day in September and October which is more than twice the normal rate and implies a fundamentally tight oil market.
• Monthly data released by the Chinese government showed copper imports rose to the highest level in 17 months in October.
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has been among the best-performing commodities over the past week and month, up 4 percent and 19 percent respectively. Analysts at Deutsche Bank observed that unlike industrial metals, the energy sector, and specifically crude oil, WTI has been resilient to heightened levels of equity market volatility and disruption risk and instead focused on physical fundamentals which have been tightening.  This has seen U.S. inventories decline in Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) 2, which has encouraged the forward curve to move into backwardation and contributed to a narrowing in the WTI-Brent spread.  Brent is likely being constrained somewhat by a better-than-expected recovery in Libyan oil production.
• The Global Resources Fund has had good relative performance versus its peer group median over the trailing month.

Weaknesses

• The Global Resources Fund underperformed its benchmark this week mostly attributable to stock selection within the energy sector.
• In spite of some supportive supply side news and positive Chinese import data, copper prices have continued to slide since the end of October and fell 3 percent this week to $3.46 per pound on the COMEX.
• A leading indicator for Chinese steel demand, October data for residential floor space under construction fell 6.1 percent year-over-year and sales fell 9.9 percent year-over-year, while starts also slowed sharply.

Opportunities

• In its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its forecast for U.S. corn and soybean yield, with the decline in corn production larger than anticipated by the market.  Low inventories and lower production should support higher corn prices and, by extension, higher fertilizer prices.
• According to IEA, Libya’s crude oil production is expected to rise to 700,000 barrels per day by the end of 2011.
• China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has announced its expectation that China’s annual crude steel consumption will be on the order of 750 million tons per year by 2015, as part of the five-year plan for the sector.

Threats

• Downside volatility could refocus if an agreement is not reached regarding Congress’ efforts to pass the budget next week, and later concerning the U.S. super-committee deadline on November 23.

Tags: Agriculture, Backwardation, Chinese Import, Copper Prices, Crude Oil Wti, Day In September, Development Oecd, Forward Curve, Industrial Metals, International Energy Agency, Leading Indicator, Market Volatility, Petroleum Administration, Physical Fundamentals, Residential Floor, Resources Fund, Steel Demand, Stock Selection, West Texas Intermediate, Wti Brent, Wti Crude Oil
Posted in Markets | Comments Off

Energy and Natural Resources Market Cheat Sheet (October 31, 2011)

Monday, October 31st, 2011

Energy and Natural Resources Market Cheat Sheet (October 31, 2011)

Strengths

• The commodities complex, including industrial metals and crude oil, gained across the board as markets welcomed a deal by the eurozone leaders this week. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil gained nearly 7 percent and copper jumped more than 14 percent this week as investors’ risk appetite exploded. Commodity-related equities also rallied which drove gains in the Global Resources Fund (PSPFX).
• Macquarie Research highlighted that U.S. durable goods orders, excluding transportation equipment, rose 1.7 percent in September. This was greater than the consensus expectation and is the strongest reading in the last six months.
• Scotiabank noted that copper inventories in Asia are falling at a rate of 50,000 tonnes per week, creating upward pressure on the copper price. The rapid decline means there’s potential for zero inventories by Christmas.
• Rising oil prices have led to a rise in corporate earnings for energy companies. Major producers including Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell and France’s Total reported strong earnings results for the third quarter this week. Both Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell reported earnings 40 percent greater than a year ago, while Total’s profit rose 13 percent over the same time period, according to Resource Investing News.

Weaknesses

• Despite positive numbers across the board for the week, the Alerian MLP Index and the Baltic Dry Ships Index were laggards in the sector. However, each saw positive gains, up 3.1 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively.
• A Macquarie report this week noted that the latest SteelBenchmarker assessment by World Steel Dynamics has again highlighted the pressures facing the steel industry. The benchmark World Export hot rolled coil (HRC) price fell 4.2 percent over the past 14 days to $656 per tonne, the lowest since December 2010.
• Non-OPEC oil supply outages have been running twice the level seen in 2010. Further evidence of the supply-side deterioration was seen in the extremely poor set of August numbers for U.K. domestic production. At 808,000 barrels per day, total production is at its lowest levels since 1978.

Opportunities

• Data compiled by Bloomberg this month shows that traders have rising bullish expectations for the agriculture sector. Options traders are snatching up protection against declines in agricultural stocks at the fastest rate in four years. Puts to sell the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF outnumber calls by more than 2-to-1, the largest discrepancy in almost a year. Over the past month, $2.7 million has been invested in the agribusiness ETF, second-most among all U.S.-listed global equity ETFs.
• China will be reporting its October HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Monday, October 31. The flash PMI announced this past Monday showed expansion in the Chinese manufacturing sector for the first time since mid-summer and the country contributed more than half of global incremental oil demand for the month of September, according to the Financial Express. An accelerated PMI could have a meaningful effect on commodities.
• A shortfall in diesel fuel supply is spreading across China. The Xinhau news agency is reporting that private gas stations are scouring the country for diesel supplies and lines are growing longer at filling stations in major cities. Diesel fuel shortages are common in the winter but longer and heavier-than-usual refinery maintenance mixed with a reduction in retail prices could create the perfect recipe for a squeeze once again this year. PetroChina imported 120,000 tonnes of diesel fuel in October to meet the increasing demand while China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) is running its refineries at full capacity. Refinery runs have increased 5.7 percent on a year-over-year basis and the company has encouraged refineries to reduce naphtha output to allow for higher diesel production. Further, CNPC has said that it will raise refinery runs to the second-highest level on record next month in order to maximize diesel output.
• Resource Investing News says rising production costs are putting downward pressure on fertilizer profits. Fertilizer production is very energy intensive, with production requiring significant amounts of sulfur, ammonia and natural gas. Analysts worry that rising input costs and shrinking margin profits may negatively impact the entire industry. However, Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan anticipates improving margins over the near future due to “economy of scale” in terms of potash production. According to Potash, “with demand expected to rise, we believe our expanding potash capability provides a unique growth opportunity. The powerful levers of selling more volumes at higher prices, with the potential for lower per tonne operating costs, offer significant gross margin potential in the years ahead. Beyond the opportunity for margin expansion, the potential for lower per-tonne mining taxes and improved earnings from our equity investments provides significant growth potential.”

Threats

• September PMI data across Emerging Europe will be released on November 1. Roubini Global Economics (RGE) is forecasting further weakening in manufacturing conditions, reflecting a decline in export orders and weakening growth outlook in the eurozone.
• On Wednesday, Freeport McMoRan declared force majeure on shipments of copper concentrates from its Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia as an increasingly acrimonious labor strike over pay and conditions continued into its fifth week. Mineweb suggested that this would mean that the company is not anticipating a protracted period of disruption at the mine.
• In the midst of earnings reporting season, Resource Investing News reported that many analysts are skeptical about producers being able to reach their production targets. As an example, Exxon Mobil will need to pump out 5 million barrels a day to reach its 4 percent growth target for 2011. For the September quarter, Exxon Mobil reported producing 4.28 million barrels a day. Analysts have speculated that one problem for the producers is that companies must sign production-sharing contracts with local governments in some countries. This means oil producers receive a smaller output when countries cash in on rising crude prices. Such agreements are prevalent in Africa, which accounts for 20 percent of Exxon Mobil’s crude oil supply.

Tags: agricultural, Alerian Mlp Index, Commodities, Copper Price, Corporate Earnings, Crude Oil, Durable Goods Orders, Earnings Results, Exxon Mobil, Hot Rolled Coil, Industrial Metals, Laggards, Opec Oil, Outlook, Rapid Decline, Resources Fund, Rising Oil Prices, Risk Appetite, Royal Dutch Shell, Same Time Period, Steel Dynamics, West Texas Intermediate, World Steel Dynamics, Wti Crude Oil
Posted in Commodities, ETFs, Markets, Oil and Gas, Outlook | Comments Off

Eurozone Anxiety Continues to Reign

Wednesday, September 7th, 2011

Eurozone Anxiety Continues to Reign
Heightened worries over the eurozone sovereign debt crisis overshadowed an unexpected gain in US service sector activity, pushing stocks below the flatline in the first day of trading after the holiday weekend. Treasuries moved higher in a flight to safety, and crude oil prices were lower. Meanwhile, the US dollar gained ground as the Swiss franc moved sharply lower after the Swiss National Bank capped the franc’s rise compared to the euro. On the equity front, International Paper inked a deal to acquire Temple-Inland for $4.3 billion, including debt, Walgreen Co saw an increase in August same-store sales, but AutoNation posted a decline in August vehicle sales, and Sunoco announced its departure from the refining business.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 101 points (0.9%) to 11,139, the S&P 500 Index lost 9 points (0.7%) to 1,165, and the Nasdaq Composite declined by 7 points (0.3%) to 2,474. In moderate volume, 1.1 billion shares were traded on the NYSE and 1.7 billion shares changed hands on the Nasdaq. WTI crude oil fell by $0.43 to $86.02 per barrel, wholesale gasoline lost $0.02 to $2.82 per gallon, and the Bloomberg gold spot price was $21.00 lower to $1,879.20 per ounce. Elsewhere, the Dollar Index—a comparison of the US dollar to six major world currencies—was 1.0% higher at 75.93.

In M&A news, International Paper Co. (IP $28) announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Temple-Inland Inc. (TIN $31) for $32 per share in cash, or about $4.3 billion, including the assumption of $600 million in debt. On the heels of the announcement, IP said it will terminate its existing tender offer to acquire all of the outstanding common shares of TIN for $30.60 per share. TIN was sharply higher, while IP also gained solid ground.

Walgreen Co. (WAG $35) reported that its August same-store sales—sales at stores open at least a year—rose 5.6% year-over-year (y/y). The retailer reported that customer traffic increased 2.5% and “basket size” rose 2.3%. Separately, WAG noted that it has begun informing patients that it will not be part of the Express Scripts Inc. (ESRX $45) pharmacy benefits network as of January 1, 2012, as negotiations “remain at an impasse.” Shares were higher after overcoming early weakness.

AutoNation Inc. (AN $39) announced that its retail new vehicle unit sales in August declined 3% y/y to 18,121, as a 10% drop in import vehicle sales offset gains in domestic and premium luxury sales. AN traded lower.

US oil refiner Sunoco Inc. (SUN $38) announced that it will put its two Pennsylvania refiners up for sale and exit the refining business in order to focus on its retail and logistics enterprises. In a conference call, SUN’s CEO said the company’s performance in the refining segment was “unacceptable” and that the move was in the best interest of its shareholders. SUN said it will book a $1.9-2.2 billion impairment charge during the 3Q related to the refineries. SUN traded higher on the news.

Service sector activity surprisingly accelerates

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (chart) unexpectedly improved in August to 53.3 from 52.7 in July—the lowest level for the year—while the forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a decrease to 51.0. A reading of 50 separates expansion from contraction. The report is generally considered a measure of economic strength in the service sector and is the companion to the ISM Manufacturing Index, which last week surprisingly remained in expansion for August. The favorable read on service sector activity came as new orders increased 1.1 points to 51.7, while new export orders rose 7.5 points to 56.5. Elsewhere, although the non-manufacturing employment component declined 0.9 points, the gauge remained in expansion at a level of 51.6. Meanwhile, prices paid gained 7.6 points to 64.2. On inventories, the change component fell from 56.5 to 53.5 and the sentiment component declined 3.5 points to 56.0. Finally, accompanying a 0.5 point decrease in business activity/production to 55.6, the ISM indicated that survey respondent comments were mixed and that “There is a degree of uncertainty concerning business conditions for the balance of the year.”

Schwab’s Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders notes in her article, 1/2 Full: Not Throwing in Towel on Recession Probability, that risks that there will be a recession have risen markedly. A good deal of that risk relates to the breakdown in confidence triggered by the debt ceiling-related political antics, the subsequent downgrade of US debt by Standard & Poor’s, the ongoing debt crisis in the eurozone and a highly volatile stock market. Also, as we’ve noted countless times, the ability of the economy to grow at anything resembling a healthy pace is severely limited by massive debt as a percentage of US gross domestic product (GDP), exacerbated by many structural impediments to jobs growth. However, Liz Ann notes that there are several bright spots complimenting the August reads from the ISM, including a surge in July consumer spending, a tumble in oil prices, a stronger-than-expected report durable goods orders in July, and continued extremely accommodative monetary policy. Read more of Liz Ann’s analysis as well as other timely commentary from Schwab experts at www.schwab.com/marketinsight.

Treasuries were mostly higher despite paring gains on the favorable service-sector data, as eurozone concerns continued to hamper sentiment and foster some flight-to-safety buying. The yields on the 2-year and 10-year notes were down 1 bp to 0.20% and 1.98%, respectively, and the 30-year bond rate fell 5 bps to 3.25%.

Swiss National Bank caps franc

Sentiment was mixed overseas as a move by the Swiss National Bank was tempered by the continued anxiety over the euro-area debt crisis. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced it will institute a ceiling on the Swiss franc against the euro, saying it is “aiming for a substantial and sustained weakening of the franc,” per Bloomberg, and “With immediate effect, it will no longer tolerate a euro-franc exchanged rate below the minimum rate of 1.20 francs.” The SNB added that it is “prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities.” The Swiss franc traded solidly lower in the currency markets following the announcement. However, worries over the sovereign debt contagion grew as Italy held talks about its austerity plans and balancing its budget, while political uncertainty in Germany exacerbated the concerns about the debt crisis across the pond. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party was handed a loss in a regional election over the weekend, and Germany is set to hold a constitutional vote tomorrow regarding the participation of Europe’s largest economy in the recent eurozone bailouts.

Meanwhile, today’s European economic calendar did little to help sentiment, as UK retail sales unexpectedly dropped in August, and German factory orders fell more than expected in July, while eurozone 2Q GDP was left unrevised at a 0.2% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) rate of growth.

The reemergence of the euro-area sovereign debt concerns dampened the mood in Asia as well with Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index closing at a 2-1/2 year low. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.75%. The RBA has kept rates unchanged since November, noting today that conditions in global financial markets “have been very unsettled over recent weeks, as participants have confronted uncertainty about both the resolution of sovereign debt problems and the prospects for economic growth in Europe and the United States.” The central bank added that “the outlook for the global economy is less clear than it was earlier in the year.” Economic releases out of the region were minimal with a report showing South Korea’s 2Q GDP was revised slightly higher, while Australia’s net exports unexpectedly declined in 2Q.

Fed measures state of the States

The main event on tomorrow’s US economic calendar will be the midday release of the Federal Reserve Beige Book, wherein Fed staffers summarize anecdotal economic data from all twelve Federal Reserve districts in preparation for the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for September 20-21. The Beige Book measures what businesses and consumers are saying about actual current conditions, particularly the state of order books, demand for loans, and sales.

Market participants are struggling to discern whether the current slowdown is a temporary factor or a more lasting change in trend. As Schwab’s Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders, Director of Market and Sector Analysis, Brad Sorensen, CFA and Senior Market Analyst, Michelle Gibley, CFA note in their latest Schwab Market Perspective: Confidence Counts that most measures that typically give cues about recessions suggest the US will avoid a renewed recession, but risks are clearly heightened. While the Obama Administration and Congress continue to scramble to be seen as doing something, fiscal policy options are limited amid a drive to lower deficits, driven home by the US credit rating downgrade. Meanwhile, the Fed still has several possible actions, but remains divided, and may need economic data that is more definitive before acting. We remain opposed to a new round of QE and question if any efforts will have the desired impact. As Liz Ann concludes in 1/2 Full: Not Throwing in Towel on Recession Probability, the bottom line is that the ability of the economy to grow at anything resembling a healthy pace is severely limited by massive debt, lack of confidence and structural impediments to job growth. Read more at www.schwab.com/marketinsight.

The only other item on the economic docket is MBA Mortgage Applications.

Tomorrow’s international economic calendar will have more to offer, including: UK industrial and manufacturing production, as well as home prices, and German industrial production, while Australia will report 2Q GDP, Japan will release its Leading Index, and Canada will report its Ivey Purchasing Managers Index. Elsewhere, Sweden’s Central Bank, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan are expected to keep rates steady following the conclusions of their respective monetary policy meetings.

Schwab Center for Financial Research – Market Analysis Group

©2011 Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., Member SIPC. All rights reserved.

Schwab Center for Financial Research (“SCFR”) is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. The information contained herein is obtained from third-party sources and believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. This report is for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation, or a recommendation that any particular investor should purchase or sell any particular security. The investment information mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.

1 – IB1
Schwab or its affiliates has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company in the past 12 months.

2 – SO2
Schwab and/or its officers own options, rights or warrants to purchase the securities of this
company.

Tags: Autonation, Canadian Market, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Prices, Debt Crisis, Dollar Index, Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Gold, Gold Spot Price, International Paper Co, Moderate Volume, Nasdaq Composite, Outlook, Service Sector Activity, Swiss Franc, Swiss National Bank, Temple Inland, Temple Inland Inc, Walgreen Co, Wholesale Gasoline, World Currencies, Wti Crude Oil
Posted in Canadian Market, Gold, Markets, Oil and Gas, Outlook | Comments Off

High Gasoline Prices Are Costing U.S. Consumers $360 Million More A Day At The Pump

Friday, April 15th, 2011

by Bob Van Der Valk, via EconMatters

This year is an instant replay of 2008 with the average price of regular gasoline in the US expected to reach $4 per gallon in the next month. Californians have already surpassed that mark and are heading for $4.50 per gallon by Memorial Day.

On Monday, April 11, Jeffrey Currie, the global head of commodities at Goldman Sachs (GS), told his clients that rising demand from emerging market players earlier this year had been overtaken by a supply shock driven by the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) unrest.

Currie said,

“That has had the effect of introducing more downside risk into the trade, particularly given record levels of speculative longs (trading) in crude,”

In other words, he advised them to sell – sell – sell WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil and investors, like lemmings, followed him off the cliff. The WTI crude oil price reacted by immediately dropping almost $6 a barrel, or 5.8%, in two days.

However, the price of crude oil is not based purely on supply and demand and has a speculative element built into it, which is once again being heavily influenced by money flows from the big hedge funds such as Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS). In other words, Jeffrey Currie pulled a head fake and his investors have been willing to go along with him.

Lloyd Blankfein, the CEO of GS, made his now infamous remark to the Sunday Times of London on November 8, 2009, saying: “Investment bankers are just doing God’s work”.

Today the MENA unrest has caused increases in crude oil prices and investment banks are taking advantage of the opportunity to make huge profits.  In any other times, this would have been called war profiteering, but now it is considered business as usual with Gordon Gekko’s motto “greed is good” back in vogue.

WTI is being used as the short leg of a spread involving funds playing off the MENA unrest. Investors are going long on Brent and shorting WTI then moving in and out of that spread whenever economic data is released in the US.

The chart below indicates we now have a significant disconnect between WTI and Brent futures in recent months. The black line shows the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) WTI and the red line shows the ICE Brent front month futures with the green line showing the basis (difference) between the two:


Chart Source – Mercatus Energy Advisors

Brent has thereby become more indicative of the world crude oil price and the price direction for U.S. gasoline prices.

The following chart produced by Doug Short shows the differential between WTI crude oil and the average price of gasoline for the last 10 years:

There are good reasons for the WTI prices to take a big plunge in the next few weeks with crude oil inventories at Cushing at an all time high. The direct connection to supply and demand was lost after paper traders took over managing those inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub.

On Wednesday, April 13, the benchmark WTI crude oil price closed up 86 cents at $107.11 a barrel on the NYMEX after dropping 3.3% on Tuesday. The Brent crude oil for May delivery also went up to near $123 a barrel on Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in London.

Goldman Sachs (GS) has enough investors following their advice to be able to control the ups and down of crude oil.  Meanwhile, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said higher prices have begun to chip away at fuel consumption, but did not call for an emergency meeting to address the situation.

President Obama could soon make another call for a windfall profits tax on major oil companies, which could bring in nearly a billion dollars a day for the US Treasury. He called for just such a tax during his campaign in 2008 at the height of the last speculative run up in gasoline prices.

In the end, the additional cost of crude oil comes out of the consumers pockets.  The high gasoline prices are costing the U.S. consumers $360 million per day more versus the price paid last year at the pump.

Related Reading – Oil Price Inflated, Time to Take Profits From Resource Related Investments

About The Author – Bob van der Valk lives in Terry, Montana and is a Petroleum Industry Analyst with over 50 years of experience in the petroleum, gasoline and lubricants industry.  He has often been quoted by news media and his opinions are also solicited by government entities in addition to his daily business of managing large scale supply and marketing operations.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of EconMatters.

Tags: BRIC, BRICs, Commodities, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Price, Crude Oil Prices, Downside Risk, Gasoline Prices, Global Head, Gold, Goldman Sachs, Gordon Gekko, Instant Replay, Investment Banks, Money Flows, Morgan Stanley, oil, Price Of Crude Oil, Sachs Gs, Short Leg, Sunday Times Of London, Supply Shock, Times Of London, Van Der Valk, Wti Crude Oil, Wti Crude Oil Price
Posted in Commodities, Emerging Markets, Energy & Natural Resources, Gold, Markets, Oil and Gas | Comments Off