Posts Tagged ‘Ugly’
Big GDP Miss: 2.2% Vs Expectations Of 2.5%, Composition Even Uglier
Friday, April 27th, 2012
So much for the +3.0% GDP whisper number. Instead of printing at the expected number of +2.5%, the first preliminary GDP data point (two more revisions pending) came out at 2.2%, a big disappointment for a quarter which had a substantial boost from the weather. And while of the 2.2%, Personal Consumption came in strong – as expected, as it was precisely the factor most impacted by pulling in demand forward courtesy of “April in February”, 0.59% of the 2.2% was an increase in inventories, something which was not supposed to happen as it means that the quality of the economic growth in Q1 was far worse than expected. Cementing the ugly composition of Q1 GDP was fixed investment which added just a paltry 0.18% – this is the number which is critical for ongoing cashflow generation and unfortunately, the very low print means that growth outlook for Q2 is now even worse than before and we expect economists will promptly trim their already bearish predictions for Q2 GDP. Finally, government “consumption” subtracted just 0.6% from the total number, a decrease from the 0.84% in Q4, which means that once again the government is starting to become less of a detractor to growth – a dagger in the heart to anyone who claims there is “quality” in GDP growth. And the number you have all been waiting for: At March 31, US Debt/GDP was 100.8%.
Full breakdown by category:
Tags: Composition, Dagger, Detractor, Disappointment, Economic Growth, Economists, GDP, Gdp Data, GDP Growth, Government Consumption, Growth Outlook, Heart, Inventories, Personal Consumption, Q2 Gdp, Q4, Revisions, Ugly, Weather, Whisper Number
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Ugly Economic Data (Bespoke)
Friday, September 16th, 2011
If there was ever a day that illustrated how focused the market is on Europe, it is today. Prior to today’s open, we saw a slew of economic data regarding the US economy, and of the six reports that were released, only one was better than expected. In today’s reports, headline and core CPI readings were at their highest levels since 2008. In terms of employment, both initial and continuing claims were higher than expected. Regarding manufacturing, the Empire Manufacturing report was weaker than expected. At 9:15, Capacity Utilization came in slightly weaker than expected, while Industrial Production was the lone better than expected report.
Even in the one supposed bright spot of Industrial Production, the news wasn’t so great. As shown in the bottom chart, on a year over year basis, Industrial Production dropped from 8.3% down to 3.4%. The last time Industrial Production saw this large of a monthly drop in its y/y reading was back in December 1960. So how is the market doing in the face of all this bleak economic data? Fifteen minutes into trading, the DJIA is actually up 75 points. As they would say on the other side of the Atlantic, “C’est la vie.”
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Tags: Bottom Chart, C Est La Vie, Capacity Utilization, Copyright, Core Cpi, DJIA, Economic Data, Economy, Empire, Europe, Fifteen Minutes, Investment Group, Last Time, Slew, Terms Of Employment, Ugly
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Chart of the Day: Stock market rally long in the tooth
Monday, November 2nd, 2009
How does the stock market rally since the March 9 low compare with the 1929-1932 bear market – which also included bank failures, bankruptcies, severe stock market declines, etc.?
For some perspective, Chart of the Day provided the graph below, illustrating the duration (calendar days) and magnitude (percentage gain) of all significant Dow Jones Industrial Index rallies during the 1929-1932 bear market (solid blue dots).
As the chart shows, the duration and magnitude of the March 2009 rally of the Dow (hollow blue dot labeled “you are here”) are longer than any that occurred during the 1929-1932 bear market. Add an ugly technical picture and stretched valuations, and it is not difficult to conclude that it is prudent to be on the sidelines at the moment.
Source: Chart of the Day, October 30, 2009.
Tags: Bank Failures, Bankruptcies, Bear Market, Blue Dot, Blue Dots, Calendar Days, Dow Index, Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial Index, Duration, Graph, Magnitude, Market Rally, Percentage Gain, Perspective, Rallies, Sidelines, Source Chart, Stock Market Declines, Ugly, Valuations
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