Posts Tagged ‘Two Little Girls’
Monday, December 29th, 2008
Jim Rogers speaks candidly with Bloomberg (December 23, 2008) about his outlook for 2009.
- The American economy will likely be the worst since World War II.
- Policy mistakes could precipitate a depression, as in 1929, when policy makers made horrendous mistakes. Politicians are getting in on the action today as they did then, so its possible to have a depression in this period.
- “I’m negatively impressed by what I see this time. Its unfathomable what they’re (central bankers and politicians) doing. You would think that some of them had read history, or interpreted history properly.”
- Pres. Obama has made his platform to (1) tax capital and (2) protect America.
- “This is a world that is short of capital…what a genius.”
- “Protectionism led to the Great Depression.”
- “If that happens (taxing capital and protectionism) its all over.”
- In 1918, The UK was the richest country in the world; by 1939, it was a shambles; Exchange controls, the economy was a wreck; it was a horrible period.
- “The same thing is in the process of happening in America and if America continues to make mistakes, you’re going to see that quick a transition.”
- I moved to Asia because I see enormous opportunities there, and I’ve got my two little girls who I want to grow up speaking Chinese and grow up knowing Asia as well as they know America.
- I’m convinced that China is going to be the great country of the 21st century.
- I want to prepare my little girls for that; I don’t see how America is going to become the great country of the 21st century again.
- The (biggest issue) right now is that “the American government is printing gigantic amounts of money right now and that in the end is going to be the worst problem.
- They’re propping everyone up everybody in sight; throughout history, when you’ve printed that much money its led to inflation, and in some cases runaway inflation.
- I think in the end, the credit problem is not going to be the serious problem.
- Its too bad the American government would not let people fail.
- The big problem is (a) that they have not let people fail, and (b) they’re printing money to try to solve the problem.
- The facts are, during this period in time the only thing to have its fundamentals unimpaired is commodities.
- Farmers can’t even get loans for fertilizer now.
- The supply of things is going to be in even worse shape coming out of this.
- The IEA recently came out with a study showing that the worlds reserves of oil are declining at the rate of 7% per year.
- you can do the arithmetic, the supply of everything is going down; oil and everything else;
- we’re going to have serious supply problems before too much longer.
- The fundamentals for General Motors are impaired, the fundamentals for Bank of America are impaired.
- The fundamentals for Zinc are improving, the fundamentals for cotton are improved
- Commodities will be the place to be if and when we come out of this crisis, but even if we don’t come out of it
- In the 1970′s the economies were bad, but commodities went through the roof.
- In the 1930′s commodities were a much better place to be than stocks, because there was no supply.
- I own some Gold, if gold goes down I’ll buy some more, if gold goes up, I’ll buy some more.
- Gold will probably go much higher
- I think I’ll make more money in Agriculture for a while, but I own some gold.
- Platinum is more industrial, and certainly tied closely to the Auto industry; I own some, but not a lot, but when its time to buy Automobiles again, Platinum will be a spectacular play.
- There are shortages, and then demand will suddenly come racing back, and there won’t be any inventories left; this is how economies have always evolved.
- I’m the worlds worst market timer so don’t ask me for the timing of all of this – but we do know that people are closing mines; we do know that the cost of producing Zinc is below the cost of production now,
- Things can stay below the cost of production for a while, because often it costs more to close a mine than to keep it running at a loss, but eventually, you will have less supply of everything, and you’re certainly not going to have any new mines opened in the next several years because the economics of opening a mine are out the window now, and it takes ten years to bring a mine on stream,
- The supply and reserves are going down so you’re not going to have nay new mines coming on stream
- I have not sold any of my metals since the commodities bull market began.
- I was short Fannie Mae, short Citibank, still am short the investment banks.
- My way of investing is: I try to be long the good things where the fundamentals are improving, and short the things where the fundamentals are deteriorating. That’s the way I invest and always have.
- Rogers is not buying any specific metals
- Buys his own indices to avoid conflicts
- The best way for investors to invest in commodities is through ETFs or ETNs or indexes. These are the best ways to invest in anything else.
- I amass things for as long as like them and would own them forever if possible, so long as the fundamentals are there.
- Covered many of his short positions in the US stock market in October.
- Has recently been buying more commodities (which he started buying ten years ago), China, Taiwan, and the Yen. For metals, he’s been buying the Rogers Metals Index, and gold coins.
- Oil is crushed, its below the cost of production in many places, its below the cost of alternate sources of energy, so oil is going to make a huge comeback when it does. The IEA conducted a massive study of the world’s oil fields and concluded that oil reserves are declining by 7% per year.
- You can do the arithmetic. In 15 years there isn’t going to be any oil left unless somebody discovers a lot of oil quickly in accessible areas, and the price of energy has to go through the roof again.
To Watch the entire interview, click on the image:
Tags: 1918, 21st Century, American Economy, American Government, Bloomberg, ETF, Genius, Great Depression, Jim Rogers, Knowing Asia, Obama, Politicians, Precipitate, Prob, Protectionism, Richest Country In The World, Runaway Inflation, Shambles, Taxing Capital, Transition, Two Little Girls, World War Ii
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