Monday, August 9th, 2010
Crude Oil had a breakout this week as the risk trade was put on, it benefitted from the short the dollar, and go long commodities play. Plus equities have been testing the higher levels, and trying to establish a higher trading range.
The problem with market participants today is that they become too bearish when indications appear bad and too bullish when indications appear good. For example on July 5th you couldn`t give crude oil away for $71 a barrel, and one month later, you couldn`t get anybody to sell it for $82.70 a barrel either. And the odd paradox of oil trading is that this is exactly what you should have been doing as a market participant.
The issue with getting too bullish on crude oil right now is that there are weekly inventory reports that give great insight into the fundamentals of the commodity. Unlike other commodities such as wheat or copper whose precise inventory levels are often a mystery at best, the EIA does an excellent job of providing a detailed report each week that comes out on Wednesday. And the current fundamentals do not support a strong bullish case for crude; in fact, they are quite bearish for the near term. Enough so that crude oil most likely will not go above $84 a barrel on this breakout. And if it does, statistically speaking, the odds favor being on the other side of the trade. It only pays to buy at the top of the market if there’s a runaway bull market, and the current dismal fundamentals of crude oil preclude such a scenario. Of course, we are also assuming no disruptive category 5 hurricanes wipe out the Gulf Oil Infrastructure, or Israel doesn`t attack Iran in the middle of the night.
The distillate picture is the most problematic for bulls. The main driver of distillates demand, which tends to track economic output closely, is heavy use by industrial sector, which has been severely lacking in the second quarter, when it was expected to be much stronger. The U.S. actually had a year-on-year increase for distillate demand between 2009 and 2010 as high as 17.1% for the last week in May; but it has cratered to +2.2% year-on-year in two months time.
Tags: Breakout, Bulls, Category 5 Hurricanes, Commodities, Commodity, Crude Oil, Distillate Demand, Economic Output, Eia, Gulf Oil, Industrial Sector, Inventory Levels, Inventory Reports, Market Participant, Market Participants, Odd Paradox, oil, Oil Infrastructure, Oil Trading, Second Quarter, Wheat
Posted in China, Commodities, Energy & Natural Resources, Infrastructure, Markets, Oil and Gas, Outlook | Comments Off
Friday, October 23rd, 2009
Here is a selection of articles culled during the week for your reading pleasure over the weekend on various lifestyle and family related topics.
Mental Illness: The Stigma of Silence, Huffington Post
Even as the medicine and therapy for mental health disorders have made remarkable progress, the ancient social stigma of psychological illness remains largely intact. Families are loath to talk about it and, in movies and the media, stereotypes about the mentally ill still reign.
It is an odd paradox that a society, which can now speak openly and unabashedly about topics that were once unspeakable, still remains largely silent when it comes to mental illness. This month, for example, NFL players are rumbling onto the field in pink cleats and sweatbands to raise awareness about breast cancer. On December 1st, World AIDS Day will engage political and health care leaders from every part of the globe. Illnesses that were once discussed only in hushed tones are now part of healthy conversation and activism.
Yet when it comes to bipolar disorder, post-traumatic stress, schizophrenia or depression, an uncharacteristic coyness takes over. We often say nothing. The mentally ill frighten and embarrass us. And so we marginalize the people who most need our acceptance.
Glenn Close has embarked on an inspiring journey to promote personal and social reform for the mentally ill. Here is the public service spot.
Elizabeth Lesser: On Becoming a Grandmother, Huffington Post
I’ve always looked younger than my age. In grade school I was little and chubby: “baby fat” is the humiliating phrase I recall. In junior high I was the last girl to wear a bra, both because I didn’t need one and because my mother was a feminist. Her mortifying counsel was to enjoy being free from the constraints of female undergarments for as long as possible. I did everything I could to appear older in high school, but gazing at the yearbook today, I look about 12, while the other girls on the page seem to be in their 20′s.
White wines ‘bad for the teeth’, BBC
Enjoying a glass of white wine on a frequent basis can damage the teeth, something many wine makers and tasters will know first-hand, experts say.
Why do teenagers sleep late? – BBC
Tests by Professor Russell Foster, chairman of circadian neuroscience at Brasenose College, Oxford, suggest that students perform better in the afternoon, because their body clock is programmed about two hours later, possibly for hormonal reasons.
The Sex-Housework Link – WSJ.com
A new study shows that for husbands and wives alike, the more housework you do, the more often you are likely to have sex with your spouse.
With the financial crisis, high unemployment, and tight credit, you may be saying to yourself: who is acting rich these days? We’re barely making ends meet.
You would think that our wastrel ways are over, we’re erasing debt, and stocking up on savings. The reality is that not only are we spenders who barely understand the concept of frugality, we are big spenders on expensive elite brands, and we do it in an attempt to emulate the rich people we see on television, in magazines, and down the street. The recession may have caused us to take a breather, but every indication is that we will pick up right where we left off when gentler economic winds blow again.
Before you spend another dime, read this book and understand how to become rich instead of act rich. Stop Acting Rich: …And Start Living Like A Real Millionaire will upend every assumption you have about wealthy people: where they shop, what they buy, and most shockingly, where they live (it’s not where you think).
Did you know that three times more millionaires live in homes valued at under $300,000 than over $1 million? Would it stun you to learn that more millionaires drive Toyotas than BMWs? How about a second home? Not for the millionaire.
Bestselling author of The Millionaire Next Door and The Millionaire Mind and leading authority on the wealthy, Dr. Thomas Stanley uncovers the truth about spending to show you how you can really live rich.
It all starts with where you live. Live in a prestige neighborhood and you will spend more on everything from your car to your watch. Real millionaires understand that living in communities where their neighbors have less net worth than they donaturally leads to spending less. It’s easier to be rich when keeping up with the Joneses hardly costs anything.
Dr. Stanley’s research also uncovers what makes rich people happy. Life satisfaction comes not from cruising down the highway in a chunk of your net worth, but from having the financial resources to choose—to spend time with family and friends, to volunteer, to pursue interests.
Stop Acting Rich . . . And Start Living Like a Real Millionaire rips the lid off just about every assumption we have about what rich looks like. Few people become rich by way of a high income, and even fewer high-income people are truly rich. The good news is that almost anyone can become wealthy—even without a super high income—if you would just stop acting . . . and instead start living like a rich person.
Tags: Advertis, Breast Cancer, Chubby Baby, Commodities, Coyness, Elizabeth Lesser, energy, Female Undergarments, Glenn Close, Health Care Leaders, Hushed Tones, Intact Families, Media Stereotypes, Mental Health Disorders, Natural Resources, Nfl Players, Odd Paradox, Post Traumatic Stress, Psychological Illness, Reading Pleasure, Remarkable Progress, Social Stigma, Sweatbands, White Wines, Wine Makers, World Aids Day
Posted in Markets | Comments Off
“Never confuse brilliance with a bull market.” —
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