Posts Tagged ‘Month Of March’
Energy and Natural Resources Market Cheat Sheet (April 18, 2011)
Saturday, April 16th, 2011
Energy and Natural Resources Market Cheat Sheet (April 18, 2011)
Strengths
- Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 4.8 percent.
- China has exported 42,600 metric tons of refined copper during the first two months of 2011, eight times the amount in the last year.
- Mexico (up 13 percent year over year) and Argentina (up 20 percent year over year) became the largest contributors to mine supply according to Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS), GFMS estimates a rise of 2.5 percent to a record 22.9kt, driven by growth from the primary and Lead/Zinc sector.
- Seasonally adjusted US auto sales for the month of March remained above 13 million vehicles per year; the sales figures crossed the 13 million vehicle level the second time since the cash for clunkers program that ended on Nov 1, 2009.
- The National Bureau of Statistics reported this week that China’s crude steel rose 9 percent to 59.42mt in March from a year ago and 9.4 percent higher than February’s 54.3mt. This boosted China’s production to the second-highest level on record amid higher demand from builders.
- China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 9.7 percent in the first quarter, which was higher than expected and despite inflation rising to the highest level in almost three years.
Weaknesses
- Manufacturing growth, which makes up about 80 percent of India’s industrial production index, was at 3.5 percent for the month, down from 16.1 percent a year ago.
- A drop of 16 percent to 8.37 million tons for the first quarter iron ore shipments was reported by Fortescue’s due to heavy rains in Australia, the company said it will raise output to 12 million tons in second quarter.
- China Iron and Steel Association reported a decline in China’s daily crude steel output in the last ten days of March to 1.922 million tonnes per day.
- After the African Union said Muammar Gaddafi had accepted a roadmap to end the civil war in Libya, as a result Brent crude fell below $126. Furthermore, Brent crude fell sharply to below $122 and U.S. crude dropped by $2 a barrel this week on concern high fuel prices will destroy demand.
Opportunities
- China’s preliminary March trade data shows a 29 percent month over month increase in copper imports. This could provide more support to this metal, which ended the week at a one month high.
- Gasoline is crowding out retail sales at rapid pace, its share of total retail sales exploded higher in March to 10.72 percent from an upwardly revised 10.49 percent in February.
- A Transocean owned rig has drilled the deepest-ever water depth well off the coast of India, drilling in 10,194 feet of water, more than the previous record of 10,011 feet.
- Diego Hernandez, CEO of state mining giant Codelco, said this week that the global salmon farming industry could need up to 50,000 tonnes of copper a year to build rearing cages thanks to the metal’s anti-bacterial qualities.
- One of the world’s main suppliers of grain, Argentina, may revive a controversial tax system on grain export. A similar plan to raise taxes on soy exports in 2008 sparked nationwide farmer protests that rattled global commodity markets and hit the popularity of President Cristina Fernandez, who plans to bid for re-election in October.
- The Association of American Railroad reported this week that Major Class 1 cross-continental railroads hauled almost 200,000 multi-modal shipping containers, which was easily a record for this time of the year, conforming business survey data suggesting the U.S. economy has entered a mini boom as cheap money revs up the recovery.
Threats
- Although copper prices have almost quadrupled after a two-year rally, largely driven by the belief that China has an insatiable appetite for this metal. Evidence recently surfaced of previously unreported copper stockpiles, which shows signs of about 15 percent of the country’s annual consumption of Copper hasn’t been yet put to use. Chinese buyers are facing a dual problem of higher copper prices and the government’s aggressive move to tighten credit.
- Eskom, a South African power supplier, has said power supply is likely to remain tight for the next five years; a potential risk for the Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) production.
- Plans to halt the approval of new aluminium plants in China to tackle serious overcapacity in the industry. The decision would put a hold on investment worth $ 11 billion.
- Mohammad Ali Khatibi, governor of OPEC, was quoted last week as saying that the global oil market is oversupplied; despite prices that have been pushed up by upheaval in the Middle East.
- Global 2010-11 cocoa surplus estimates last week have expanded to 184,000 tonnes and prices look set to fall further from the 32-year high hit last month. Cocoa exports from Cameroon, the world’s fifth largest grower, hit 186,305 tonnes by the end of March from the start of the season in August, up 21 percent year over year.
Tags: Bureau Of Statistics, China, Crude Oil, Crude Steel, Eight Times, Fortescue, Gold, Gold Fields, Heavy Rains, India, Industrial Production Index, Iron And Steel, Iron Ore, Metric Tons, Million Vehicles, Mineral Services, Month Of March, Muammar Gaddafi, National Bureau Of Statistics, oil, Refined Copper, S Industrial, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Steel Association, Steel Output
Posted in Credit Markets, Energy & Natural Resources, Gold, India, Markets, Oil and Gas | Comments Off
Energy and Natural Resources Market Diary (04/18/2010)
Sunday, April 18th, 2010
Energy and Natural Resources Market Diary (04/18/2010)
Strengths
China’s passenger car sales jumped 63 percent in March from a year earlier as manufacturers scrambled to meet strong demand driven by tax cuts and government subsidies. Passenger car sales rose to 1.26 million vehicles in March, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.- Nickel, used to make stainless steel, advanced to the highest level in 23 months on speculation the market will swing into deficit for the first time in four years as a recovering economy boosts demand.
- North American aluminum orders (less can stock which tend to be extremely volatile) increased 12.5 percent sequentially and 25.4 percent on a year-over-year basis.
- Steel mills in Germany produced 3.96 million metric tons of crude steel in the month of March, according to the German Steel Federation. This is the highest level of production since September 2008 and the federation anticipates that production will remain at a high level during the 2Q10.
Weaknesses
- West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 2.5 percent this week to $82.84 per barrel as the dollar gained on de-risking in the markets.
Opportunities
- Posco, Asia’s third-biggest steelmaker, plans to invest about $5 billion on overseas mines, joining rival mills scouring the globe for supplies in the face of higher raw-material costs. The South Korean steelmaker says it wants to boost its self-sufficiency rate for raw materials to 70 percent from about 18 percent.
- Nucor has indicated that it will increase base prices on hot-rolled, cold-rolled and galvanized products by $40 per short ton and increase plate prices by $60 per short ton.
Threats
- Reuters reported that U.S. officials plan to study oil and natural gas royalty collection systems used in other countries to determine whether the government can boost revenue from energy leases.
- China, the world’s largest consumer of iron ore, said it is investigating the possibility that BHP Billiton Ltd., Vale SA and Rio Tinto Group may be monopolizing supplies.
Tags: Automobile Manufacturers, China, China Association, Commodities, commodities update, Crude Steel, energy, Gas Royalty, German Steel, Government Subsidies, Iron Ore, Market Diary, Million Metric Tons, Million Vehicles, Month Of March, Natural Gas, Natural Resources, Nucor, Passenger Car Sales, Posco, Raw Material, Royalty Collection, Self Sufficiency, Short Ton, Steel Mills, Steelmaker
Posted in Energy & Natural Resources, Markets | Comments Off
