Déjà vu With a Difference in China’s Investment Drive

Thursday, August 2nd, 2012

by Anthony Chan, Asian Sovereign Strategist, AllianceBernstein

Infrastructure investment in China is an important indicator of demand and a key signal of Beijing’s ability to revive the economy. This week, a flurry of news suggested that the rebound in infrastructure investment is gathering momentum.

On Tuesday, the China Securities Journal reported that some commercial banks have asked local branches to provide loans to local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) at the provincial level and in the “top 100 counties”. These loans will focus on projects including highways, railways, gas, clean energy and welfare.

Local governments are competing to pitch mega investment programs. From Nanjing and Ningbo in the east to Guizhou in the south, cities and provinces have unveiled plans for major investment drives. Changsha, a city of 7 million, has launched a massive 830 billion renminbi ($130 billion) investment program, worth 2.5 times the municipality’s annual gross domestic product (GDP). And the Ministry of Railway (MOR) has also announced a 12% rise in investment spending, to 580 billion renminbi for 2012.

In 2009, MOR-led investment was the core of China’s fiscal package, and helped to reflate global demand, particularly in commodities.

China-watchers might be feeling déjà vu. Isn’t this the same investment-led reflation policy that we saw in 2009, which led to a damaging buildup in local government debt?

Not quite. Beijing has been much more cautious this time around. In early 2009, the surge in investment growth was driven by unbridled credit expansion, helping China to power the global recovery while also fueling domestic debt. This time, investment spurred by credit growth is boosting the economy at a more moderate pace.

As shown in the chart below, China’s fixed-asset investment and new project starts indicators have already picked up noticeably in the last two months. All of the recently announced projects are part of the government’s five-year plan, but timetables are being pushed forward and project sizes are being increased while the People’s Bank of China is providing more liquidity. Taken together, these steps aim to protect growth amid rising global uncertainty. We expect China’s GDP growth to stabilize in the third quarter of 2012 at about 7.8% year on year, before rebounding to 8.5% in the fourth quarter as the cumulative effect of fiscal support and monetary policy easing works its way through the economy.

I’m not too concerned about the risks of the investment-led policy, as long as some lessons on funding have been internalized. It would be bad news if local branches of commercial banks provide funds to LGFVs; this would echo the format used in 2009-10, when non-policy banks funded 40% of LGFVs’ investment and increased local government debt levels. Since 2009, many officials and local economists have proposed funding the next round of local investment projects with more private-sector money, corporate and local government bonds or direct fiscal transfers from the central government. If done this way, I think it could create some welcome checks and balances to China’s investment and reflation policy this time around.

The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AllianceBernstein portfolio-management teams.

Anthony Chan is Asian Sovereign Strategist—Global Economic Research at AllianceBernstein.

Copyright © AllianceBernstein

Tags: Anthony Chan, Asset Investment, China Securities, Commercial Banks, Credit Expansion, Domestic Debt, Fiscal Package, Global Recovery, Infrastructure Investment, Investment Drive, Investment Growth, Investment Program, Investment Programs, Local Government Financing, Local Governments, Moderate Pace, Provincial Level, South Cities, Sovereign Strategist, Time Investment
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Chart of the Week: The World’s Infrastructure Plans

Thursday, March 15th, 2012

Demand for access to basic needs, an emerging middle class and a never-ending use of global resources—these are the primary drivers of major infrastructure projects over the next several years, says GE.

In its Investor Meeting last week, the firm highlighted a few macro slides on world growth. One slide pins major global infrastructure plans totaling $4 trillion over the next 2 to 20 years.

Emerging markets across Africa, Asia, the Middle East and South America are overwhelmingly the ones pulling out their checkbooks. A number of projects are expected in Brazil, including the PAC 2 investment program totaling $872 billion, Petrobras Oil & Gas project of $225 billion, and the infrastructure spending for the World Cup and Olympics expected to cost $668 billion. Brazil’s PAC 2 will mostly be spent on energy and the remainder on subsidized housing, urbanization, sanitation and electricity distribution, says Financial Times.

India and Russia also have tremendous infrastructure plans, as each country is expected to be a half of a trillion dollars. China’s 12th Five-Year Plan is expected to spend $840 billion on the power industry and another $180 billion on health care.

In GE’s presentation, the president & CEO of Global Growth & Operations, John Rice, says many of these countries’ governments face extraordinary pressure “to increase standards of living and reduce the wealth disparity.” Of the world’s population of 7 billion, GE says 1.5 billion have no access to basic needs, such as health care, electricity and water. In addition, in the next 20 years, another 3 billion people will be added to the middle class, according to GE. That equates to 150 million people each year who will have the means and “the same kind of demands in terms of basic living conditions and infrastructure” available in the U.S., says Rice.

This trend is what I refer to as the American Dream Trade. When the boomers were babies, President Dwight D. Eisenhower signed the 1956 Federal-Aid Highway Act. The “great road program” was said to be the most intense road construction period in U.S. history, altering where Americans chose to live, vacation and work. A 62-day trip in 1919 from Washington D.C. to San Francisco was reduced to two days due to the U.S. interstate system. This helped sustain a more than tenfold increase in the U.S. GDP, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.

A pursuit of the American Dream from the U.S.’s emerging middle class led to the success of many well-known U.S. companies. Restaurants including McDonald’s and Dairy Queen and automobile manufacturers Ford and GM prospered following this infrastructure spend.

The infrastructure plans taking place across emerging markets emulate a 1950s America. As these governments help their residents pursue the American Dream of better homes, health care and quality of life, I believe the companies with a strong footprint in these growing markets stand to benefit.

See GE’s presentation slideshow here.

Tags: Africa Asia, American Dream, Boomers, Brazil, Checkbooks, Electricity Distribution, Emerging Markets, Financial Times, Five Year Plan, Global Growth, Global Infrastructure, Global Resources, Infrastructure Projects, Investment Program, John Rice, Middle Class, Russia, Sanitation, Slide Pins, Subsidized Housing, urbanization, Wealth Disparity
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Emerging Markets Cheat Sheet (January 17, 2011)

Monday, January 17th, 2011

Emerging Markets Cheat Sheet (January17, 2011)

Strengths

• Thanks to a second year of government stimulus, China’s total vehicle sales rose 32 percent in 2010 from a year earlier to 18.1 million units, and passenger car sales grew 33 percent to 13.8 million units. Total vehicles sales gained 17.9 percent year-over-year in December to 1.67 million units, and passenger car sales increased 18.6 percent to 1.3 million units.
• China’s foreign exchange reserve registered the largest quarterly increase of $199 billion to a world record $2.85 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2010. Both M2 money supply and new domestic bank loans exceeded estimates in December, increasing 19.7 percent and RMB 480.7 billion year-over-year, respectively.
• Thailand’s consumer confidence rose to 71.9 in December from 70.3 in November, the first gain in three months, as the local currency eased from a 13-year high against the U.S. dollar and export growth remained resilient.
• Vietnam’s government is targeting 7-8 percent GDP growth and is seeking to triple per capita income to $3,000 through 2020. The government also aims to reduce the budget deficit to 4.5 percent of GDP and create 8 million jobs by 2015.
• Peru is a clear beneficiary of higher commodities prices – the country’s exports of copper increased by 50 percent to $7.9 billion in the eleven months ending November 2010, despite a 0.6 percent decline in copper output. According to Fitch, Peru’s GDP is likely to grow by 6 percent in 2011 and 2012.
• Codelco of Chile, the largest global copper producer, is taking advantage of higher copper prices – the company announced a $16.3 billion investment program between 2011 and 2015.
• The Turkish auto sector is celebrating record domestic sales of 148,000 cars in December, or 67 percent growth year-over-year. Sales for 2010 were at a record 761,000 cars, which is 37 percent growth on top of the 13 percent growth seen the previous year.
• BP announced Friday that Russia’s state-owned oil firm Rosneft is to take 5 percent of BP’s ordinary voting shares in a major stock swap that will speed exploration of Russia’s Arctic continental shelf (Bloomberg).

Weaknesses

• China’s export growth decelerated to 17.9 percent year-over-year in December from 34.9 percent in November, worse than market consensus, largely due to high base effect, as the slowdown was led by destinations such as Southeast Asia and Japan.
• South Korea’s central bank unexpectedly raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent. The government planned to cap utility prices and reduce food tariffs to curb rising inflation which is approaching the central bank’s 4 percent threshold.
• Singapore will raise the down payment ratio for second mortgage borrowers to 40 percent from 30 percent and extend the period homeowners must hold properties to avoid a stamp duty to 4 years from 3 years, as private home prices climbed to a record.
• China’s central bank raised reserve ratios for a fourth time in two months by 50 basis points effective January 20 to soak up excess liquidity from overseas hot money and a potential bank lending spree in January and February.
• A bank levy to be introduced this year in Poland will raise 1 billion zloty in annual revenue. Citi estimates the introduction of the levy will reduce 2011 bank earnings by 4.2 percent.

Opportunities

• China will allow individuals from the city of Wenzhou to make direct investment in nonfinancial companies overseas in an effort to encourage capital outflows to reduce pressure on inflation of both consumer and asset prices. A closed capital account and limited investment alternatives have subjected China to a chronic risk of asset bubbles because of excess liquidity trapped domestically. This move is a new step to address one of the fundamental causes of asset speculation in China and should contribute to a healthier market overall.
• SNC Lavalin, the largest engineering firm from Canada, acquired Itansaca, the largest engineering company in Colombia. The state-owned oil company, Ecopetrol, is one of the largest clients of Itansaca. The acquisition of Itansaca positions SNC Lavalin well for reaping benefits of continued investments in the sector in Colombia and other South American countries.
• Credit growth has accelerated in recent months in Russia, up 8 percent since September. Merrill Lynch sees a conservative 12 percent growth in 2011, with asset quality improving along with the economy. Potential earnings per share growth of 36 percent through 2012 could be the best among Brazil, Russia, India and China.

Threats

• Rising international oil prices may have a negative impact on most Asian countries’ trade balances given their dependence on foreign oil, all other factors held constant. South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and India seem most vulnerable, according to Morgan Stanley’s sensitivity study.
• The Brazilian government postponed its decision on proposed budgetary cuts in 2011. It is likely that devastation in the Rio de Janeiro area caused by heavy rainfall will demand state funds for reconstruction, although it has not been communicated what the cost will be.
• Dilution risk is mounting for minority shareholders as the Russian state hydro power utility is poised to issue new shares in order to acquire additional power dams in a compromise between the government, which is looking for a higher price for the assets, and the company, according to J.P. Morgan.

Tags: Auto Sector, Bank Loans, Beneficiary, Brazil, Budget Deficit, Canadian Market, Codelco, Commodities, Commodities Prices, Consumer Confidence, Copper Output, Copper Prices, Copper Producer, Currency, Emerging Markets, Exchange Reserve, GDP Growth, India, Investment Program, Money Supply, Passenger Car Sales, Previous Year, Quarterly Increase, Russia, Stimulus, World Record
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Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (March 23 – 29, 2009)

Sunday, March 29th, 2009

Following Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s “money printing” announcement of last week, the action stayed on Capitol Hill with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner detailing his Public Private Investment Program (PPIP) as well the initial salvo on “new rules of the game” for the US’s broken system of financial regulation.

The US Treasury on Monday morning announced its highly-anticipated Private Public Investment Program (PPIP), rekindling investors’ hopes that the worst might be over for the beleaguered banking sector and the global economy is close to a bottom.

Up to $1.0 trillion will be spent in an attempt to support the balance sheets of financial institutions by removing toxic assets – mostly mortgage-backed securities. The Treasury plans to invest between $75 billion to $100 billion from its existing Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), and also to establish a separate initiative that will use the Fed’s Term Asset-backed Securities Lending Facility (TALF) and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) funding to finance the PPIP.

Source: About.com

In reaction to the Obama administration’s plan, global stock markets extended their gains and the US dollar reclaimed a stronger footing, but government bonds suffered from indigestion on issuance worries and the haven appeal of commodities waned. The performance of the major asset classes is summarized by the chart below, courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Stock markets, led by financials, surged on the unveiling of the Treasury’s plan to deal with troubled assets, adding to the gains of the rally that commenced on March 10 (see table below). The Dow Jones Industrial Index moved up 497 points (+6.8%) on Monday, its fifth largest one-day point gain and 23^rd biggest one-day percentage gain on record.

Although stocks succumbed to profit-taking towards Friday’s close, indices nevertheless managed to register a third straight week of gains – only the third time since the bear market began 78 weeks ago. With two trading days to go, March has the potential of producing the third best monthly return for the broad market since 1950.

Elsewhere in the world stocks also performed strongly, with the MSCI World Index gaining 4.4% (YTD -10.4%) and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index ahead by 6.9% (YTD +4.3%). These indices have risen by 19.8% and 21.8% respectively since the low of March 9. Returns ranged from top-performers Peru (+17.4%), India (+12.6%) and Hong Kong (+10.0%) to Uganda (-5.7%), Côte d’Ivoire (-4.7%) and Bangladesh (-4.4%), which are still languishing in the red.

The Shanghai Composite Index (+3.9%) had another good week and remains at the top of the field for the year to date with a 30.1% gain in US dollar terms. (Click here to access a complete list of global stock market movements, in local currency terms, as supplied by Emeginvest.)

Emerging markets are showing mature markets a clean pair of heels, as can be seen from the rising trend line of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index relative to the Dow Jones World Index since late October. The fact that developing countries are now outperforming the developed ones is a sign that global investors are beginning to take more risk – a necessary ingredient for stock markets in general to improve further.

Source: StockCharts.com

As far as US exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are concerned, John Nyaradi (Wall Street Sector Selector) reports that the strongest funds this week were Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy (TAN) (+32.1%), Market Vectors Solar Energy (KWT) (+25.8%) and iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction (ITB) (+20.8%). On the other end of the performance scale United States Natural Gas (UNG) (-12.6%), PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) (�‘4.6%) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) (-3.4%) performed poorly.

Among the ten US economic groups, the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) (+12.3%) led the way, with defensive funds such as Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) (+3.0) and Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU) (+1.8%) falling behind, as one would expect in a rising market.

In the coming week, as reported by the New York Times, the US administration is likely to extend more short-term aid to General Motors and Chrysler, but impose a strict deadline for bondholders and union workers to make concessions that would help the ailing automakers become viable businesses and avert bankruptcy.

Also on the agenda next week, is the summit of the Group of 20 in London – a “make or break event”, according to George Soros (via Reuters). In addition to the one-time increase of the IMF’s resources, there ought to be substantial annual special drawing rights (SDR) issues, say $250 billion, as long as the global recession lasts, he said. SDRs are an international reserve asset created by the IMF in 1969 that has the potential to act as a super-sovereign reserve currency.

Next, a quick textual analysis of my week’s reading. No surprises here with key words such as “banks”, “market”, “assets” and “plan” featuring prominently.

The nagging question remains: is the stock market rally for real, or is it just an upward correction in a bigger bear market? The worrying aspect is the rapidity with which the price increases have occurred. To gauge just how “violent” it has been, Mark Hulbert (MarketWatch) compared the rally since the March 9 lows to a composite of the stock market’s behavior over the first two weeks of all bull markets since 1900. The graph below indicates that the market is perhaps in need of catching its breath.

Regarding specific “targets”, Adam Hewison of INO.com prepared a short technical analysis presentation dealing with key levels. Click here to view the clip. As shown in the table below, the 50-day moving averages have been cleared for all the major US indices and the early January highs (not shown) are the next targets. On the downside, the levels from where the nascent rally commenced on March 9 should hold in order for the upward trend to endure.

Kevin Lane, technical analyst of Fusion IQ, said: “We think the S&P 500 can still rally up to the 850-860 in the near term on the heels of the unwinding of the deeply oversold conditions, the large piles of sideline liquidity, and additional money managers are allocating to stocks so as not fall too far behind their benchmarks. At the aforementioned S&P 500 level some more aggressive profit-taking is likely to ensue and it may be a good time to take some chips off the table (i.e. lock in some profits). We would then look to reallocate on the next aggressive pullback.”

The graph below shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages. Altogether 66% of the stocks are currently trading above their 50-day lines. This is getting close to the 80% (overbought) level seen at prior peaks during this bear market.

Source: StockCharts.com

Short-term movements aside, more bulls are coming to the fore by the day. According to Bloomberg, Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management, said the next bull market rally has begun. Also, Barton Biggs, the former chief global strategist for Morgan Stanley who now runs New York-based hedge fund Traxis Partners, last week predicted the S&P 500 may jump by 30%-50%. Similarly, Jeff Saut, strategist at Raymond James, argued that the “odds are pretty good stocks have seen their lows”.

From across the pond, London-based David Fuller (Fullermoney) said: “I feel that it is a defining rally …. increasing evidence that the bear market mostly ended last November. However, while Wall Street is the big elephant in the room, casting a large shadow in terms of influence, it is certainly not the leader. Fullermoney themes, led by Asian emerging markets and South American resources markets, definitely bottomed out in October and November. Many have also gone on to complete base formations.

“In the short-term, stock markets are technically overbought so we can expect a pause and consolidation. However, if the S&P 500 Index can hold onto approximately half of its gains from this month’s lows, this would provide further evidence of recovery potential for the medium to longer term.”

On the other hand, Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters), who has been studying markets since the 1950s, remains bearish: “The most helpful insights I’ve received during the course of this bear market are the Lowry’s statistics and comments. From the latest Lowry’s statistics I can see that although the Buying Power Index (demand) has risen sharply, the Selling Pressure Index (supply) has given ground rather grudgingly. Normally, if we were at the start of a new bull market, Selling Pressure should be collapsing. It is not.

“The conclusion is that there remains a surprising amount of Selling Pressure (supply) for this bear market advance to wade through. This is typical bear market rally action. Normally, prior to the start of a new bull market there will be an extended period in which the Selling Pressure Index slumps, indicating that sellers have exhausted their desire to sell. The inference is that we are experiencing a purely technical situation …”

One of the great concerns for the stock market rally is that the credit markets, the target of the rescue operations, are still far from “normal”. This was again seen during the past week when the US 30-day Treasury Bills dipped below zero on Thursday.

I believe stock markets are in a bottoming phase, but that this may take a while to play out. This is not a juncture at which one should go all-out bullish or bearish. Taking one step at a time, the next hurdle is the release of potentially ugly earnings and guidance announcements in April. By then a clearer picture should also start emerging on the results of the Fed’s medicine and whether credit markets are thawing and confidence is beginning to improve.

For more discussion about the direction of stock markets, also see my recent posts “Video-o-rama: Risk appetite rekindled on hope of better days“, “Stock markets: Keep an eye on confidence measures” and “Technical Talk: Stocks nearing short-term resistance“. (And do make a point of listening to Donald Coxe’s webcast of March 20, which can be accessed from the sidebar of the Investment Postcards site.)

Economy
“Global businesses remain remarkably pessimistic. Businesses say that sales fell sharply last week to a new record low and pricing power continues to evaporate as close to one third of businesses say they are cutting prices for their goods and services,” said the latest Survey of Business Confidence of the World conducted by Moody’s Economy.com.

According to RGE Monitor, the World Trade Organization said the collapse in global demand would drive trade volumes down by 9% in 2009 – the biggest contraction since World War II. Trade in developed countries would fall by 10% while in developing countries it would shrink by 2-3%. The fall in global trade in 2009 will be the first negative annual decline since 1982 led by the contraction in global growth, slump in manufacturing activity and capex, and crunch in trade finance. This might be exacerbated by growing protectionist measures around the world.

European business confidence has never been as dark and is near record lows, as indicated by the March Ifo Business Survey for Germany.

On a light-hearted note, the Financial Times reported last week that lingerie sales in Britain were looking better than the retail sector as a whole. One CEO in the industry told the FT that couples were staying home more and women were investing in “adventurous apparel” to cheer themselves up during the economic downturn. (Hat tip: US Global Investors – Weekly Investor Alert.)

A snapshot of the week’s US economic data is provided below. (Click on the dates to see Northern Trust’s assessment of the various data releases.)

March 27, 2009
– Consumer spending in Q1 most likely to show an increase

March 26, 2009
– Minor Q4 GDP revisions, corporate profits plunge
– Jobless claims – persistent upward trend remains in place

March 25, 2009
– New home sales – notable pickup in sales, but more is necessary
– Durable goods orders – glimmer of strength emerges but it is tentative

March 24, 2009
– Home prices – meaningful turnaround?

March 23, 2009
– Treasury’s Public-Private Investment Program – aims to unclog credit markets and promote credit extensions
– Existing home sales advance – noteworthy for several reasons

The past week witnessed a trend of better-than-feared economic reports. Of the twelve reports released, only three were weaker than the consensus forecast. Bespoke said: “While none of these reports can be classified as ‘good’, the fact that they are beating expectations is a positive sign. The next test will come this week when we get the first look at reports for the month of March. Will the relative strength follow through, or was the recent string of reports just an aberration?”

“We’ve passed the period where every indicator is plummeting, and that’s good news,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight (via The Wall Street Journal). “We may not be exactly at the turning point, but we’re getting pretty close to it.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal, March 28, 2009.

What are the policy actions required in the US and abroad to lead to a recovery of the global economy and prevent an L-shaped global near-depression? Nouriel Roubini (RGE Monitor) summarized the following steps:

- Much more massive unorthodox monetary policy easing;
– Much more fiscal stimulus;
– Resolution of the banking crisis via a takeover of insolvent institutions and recapitalization and removal of toxic assets from the solvent but illiquid and undercapitalized ones;
– Actions to reduce the credit crunch and restore credit growth to creditworthy firms and households;
– Direct reduction – rather than restretching – of the debt burden of insolvent households;
– Tripling of IMF resources and financial help to emerging-market economies that are at risk of a liquidity crisis or a broader financial crisis; and
– Other measures of regulatory forbearance to reduce the procyclicality of the credit cycle (appropriate changes to mark-to-market, reduction in capital adequacy ratios, reduction of the countercyclical role of downgrades by rating agencies).

“Avoiding the L is possible, but it will require much more coherent and aggressive policy actions in the US, China and all over the world,” concluded Roubini.

Week’s economic reports
Click here for the week’s economy in pictures, courtesy of Jake of EconomPic Data.

Source: Yahoo Finance, March 27, 2009.

In addition to an interest rate announcement by the European Central Bank (Tuesday, April 2), the US economic highlights for the week include the following:

Source: Northern Trust

Click here for a summary of Wachovia’s weekly economic and financial commentary.

Markets
The performance chart obtained from the Wall Street Journal Online shows how different global markets performed during the past week.

Source: Wall Street Journal Online, March 27, 2009.

Lau-Tzu said: “Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.” Wise words indeed, but hopefully the “Words from the Wise” reviews will assist Investment Postcards readers with their research to cast some light on the lie of the investment land.

That’s the way it looks from Cape Town (where I am about to embark on a long-haul flight to New York and San Diego).

Source: Walt Handelsman

CNBC: Geithner & toxic assets
“Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner discusses his plan to deal with financial institutions’ toxic assets, with CNBC’s Erin Burnett.”

Part 1

Part 2

Source: CNBC, March 23, 2009.

CEP News: US Treasury unveils PIPP
“The US Treasury announced Monday morning it will spend up to $1.0 trillion in a bid to provide support to the balance sheets of financial institutions and support the ‘toxic debt’ market, which includes mostly mortgage-backed securities.

“The US Treasury will invest between $75 billion to $100 billion from its existing Troubled Asset Relief Program, and it plans to set up a separate initiative which will use the Federal Reserve’s Term Assets Backed Securities Lending Facility and FDIC funding to finance the highly anticipated Private Public Investment Program (PPIP).

“Five different private public funds will bid on toxic assets and sell them to the broader public. Meanwhile, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation will guarantee private-sector loans for these purchases, while the US Government will invest side by side with private equity using taxpayer capital.

“In a press conference following the official announcement, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said he expects significant interest from the private sector, a sentiment which was confirmed by PIMCO’s Bill Gross following the announcement.

“Geithner said that while there is no doubt that the US government is taking risk with the PPIP, the taxpayer stands to make substantial returns on the investments. He also said that the Treasury should be able to implement the PPIP quickly.”

Source: CEP News, March 23, 2009.

BCA Research: Some hope for the US bank sector
“The Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP) is a significant positive step forward in restructuring the troubled US banking sector.

“The Treasury confirmed earlier this week its intention to remove toxic ‘legacy’ assets from bank balance sheets in order to improve the health of financial institutions and restore the flow of credit throughout the economy.

“Perhaps the most nagging issue facing policymakers in their efforts to solve the credit crisis has been what price to pay banks for their toxic assets. Too low a price would prompt further significant writedowns and could lead to additional bank failures. Too high a price would cheat taxpayers and reinforce previous bad investment decisions. The Treasury’s plan attempts to solve the issue by creating a public-private partnership, which determines asset prices using an auction process, while at the same time ensuring adequate financing (backed by the FDIC) and allowing the taxpayer to share in some of the upside.

“The plan does not directly support home prices, but it may stem the slide in real estate assets held by the banks. Even if the purchase of legacy assets leads to further writedowns, the government stands ready to contribute additional equity capital through its Capital Assistance Program (CAP) to maintain the bank as a going concern. Thus, creeping nationalization remains a possibility for those banks with a high proportion of legacy assets. Bank bonds, however, would seem to be well supported under this plan.”

Source: BCA Research, March 25, 2009.

The Wall Street Journal: Will the removal of assets make them any less toxic?
“Barrons Bob O’Brien talks about how the government will try to help the ailing economy by helping banks with toxic assets. This raises many questions including whether government help will chill public-private initiative.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal, March 23, 2008.

Nouriel Roubini (RGE Monitor): Obama’s toxic-asset plan shows promise
“So to clarify my view point: I see the Geithner plan as being relevant to banks that are solvent. For those that are found – after stress tests – to be insolvent I see as the proper solution to nationalize them and clean them up to prepare them for reprivatization.

“The stress test should do a triage between banks that are illiquid and undercapitalized but solvent given the provision of capital and liquidity and those that, under a reasonable stress scenario are effectively insolvent.

“Those that are insolvent should be nationalized.

“Those that are solvent will still have many toxic assets that need to be disposed of; and the Geithner plan provides a way to properly dispose of the toxic assets of solvent banks.

“So my partial support of the Geithner plan – with all the appropriate caveats – is consistent with the complementary idea of nationalizing the insolvent financial institutions. The bad assets of insolvent banks that are nationalized could be separated from the good assets and then worked out by the government; or they could be sold to private investors through an auction mechanism along the lines of the Geithner plan; or they could be sold – together with the good assets – to the investors purchasing a privatized bank that was temporarily privatized (along the lines of the Indy Mac deal where the investors purchasing the bank received a government guarantee on the bad assets after a first loss).”

Source: Nouriel Roubini, RGE Monitor, March 24, 2009.

Tech Ticker (Yahoo Finance): James Galbraith – Geithner plan “extremely dangerous”, banks “massively corrupted”
“Professor James Galbraith didn’t pull any punches on TechTicker this. He hates the Geithner plan, calling it ‘extremely dangerous’. He says the banks may game the plan to bid up the prices for their own crap assets and that getting bad assets off their books won’t get them lending again. Like Paul Krugman, Galbraith thinks the FDIC should just put the banks into receivership and have the banks’ subordinated bondholders pick up some of the cost of restructuring them.”

Part 1: Getting crap assets off bank books won’t save economy

“Aaron Task, TechTicker: Like it or not, many people seem to be resigned to the idea there’s no alternative to the public-private investment fund scheme Treasury Secretary Geithner detailed this morning.

“That’s hogwash, says University of Texas professor James Galbraith, author of The Predatory State. Of course there’s an alternative: FDIC receivership of insolvent banks.

“So why isn’t the Obama administration pushing for FDIC receivership? ‘Political influence of big banks,’ the economist says.”

Part 2: Massive corruption

Source: Tech Ticker, Yahoo Finance, March 23, 2009.

Bloomberg: Nobel Prize winners clash on prospects of Geithner’s plan
“Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has a good chance of succeeding with his plan to cleanse banks of toxic assets, says Michael Spence, co-winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in economics. Paul Krugman, the newest laureate, is so sure Geithner will fail that he’s full of ‘despair’.

“Even winners of the highest awards in economics can’t always be right. Which prediction proves correct depends in part on whether private investors can be enticed to bid on as much as $1 trillion of illiquid loans and securities that banks are now stuck with.

“‘This program is crucially dependent on the private sector as participants and price setters,” said Spence, who shared the Nobel Prize with George Akerlof and Joseph Stiglitz for a theory that found some government intervention can make markets more efficient. ‘It could work,’ Spence said in a telephone interview yesterday.

“That’s not an opinion shared by 2008 Nobel laureate Krugman. ‘The real problem with this plan is that it won’t work,’ Krugman, said in his New York Times opinion column yesterday.

“Geithner appears to be going back to the ‘cash for trash’ approach of his predecessor as Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson, Krugman said. ‘This is more than disappointing. In fact, it fills me with a sense of despair.’

“Instead of financing the purchase of illiquid assets, the government should guarantee many bank debts, take control of ‘insolvent’ firms and clean up their books, similar to what Sweden did in the 1990s, Krugman said.

“While Spence, a Stanford University professor and former business-school dean, has more confidence in Geithner, even he isn’t positive the Treasury secretary can pull it off.

“The Treasury plan ‘is a little complex to implement,’ Spence said. ‘I assume the Treasury has done its homework, and has people lined up’ to commit private capital to Geithner’s public-private partnerships, he said.

“Stiglitz, speaking at a conference in Hong Kong today, said the plan ‘risks a major increase in our national debt.’

“‘You can take the bad assets off the banks, but where are they going to go?’ said Stiglitz, who served as chairman of former President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers. ‘The one place for them to go is to the taxpayers.’”

Source: Scott Lanman and Vivien Lou Chen, Bloomberg, March 24, 2009.

Bill King (The King Report): TAPS – creating a derivative on derivatives
“Geithner’s plan effectively creates ‘calls’ on banks’ toxic assets. The US taxpayer will underwrite losses in this program. The call premium will be the private equity risk; the buyer gets the upside appreciation. The taxpayer provides the funding/leverage.

“Bill Gross sees private investor risk of 4% to 5%. This is the call premium for the toxic assets.

“Let’s think through this plan and the probable consequences.

“Everyone knows that solons are trying to engineer massive asset inflation. So if we are running a bank why would we sell any asset that has a chance to reflate?

“We would only sell assets that we deem hopeless. Are there enough private equity patsies to buy calls on assets that we deem have a low probability of increasing substantively in value?

“Most call buyers do not intend or wish to own the underlying assets. They are interested in a levered gain. So even if the toxic assets are inflated enough in value to produce a gain for the ‘call’ buyers, what patsies will appear as a dumping ground for the call buyers?

“Geithner’s toxic asset scheme is a repo with a call option. And unless end-user patsies appear at some point, the toxic assets will return to sender and the US taxpayer.

“We are in this mess due to excess derivatives and leverage. Ironically or absurdly, Geither’s toxic asset plan & solution (TAPS) creates a derivative on derivatives (toxic paper) and increases the leverage on levered toxic assets! You can’t make up stuff like this.

“Unfortunately for solons their expediency just delays the inevitable negatives. Solons have created extremely positive expectation for the TAPS. If the scheme does not go exceptionally well, the consequences will not be pretty … BTW, $1 trillion is not nearly enough.

“The first TAPS auction will probably go well because solons will exert intense pressure on the community to play nice. Entities that are already adjuncts of the Fed or Treasury, like PIMCO and Black Rock, will be subjected to enormous pressure to stand and deliver.”

Source: Bill King, The King Report, March 24, 2009.

CEP News: FDIC’s Bair says some US banks could be beyond help
“Federal Deposit and Insurance Corporation (FDIC) head Sheila Bair said Monday that some US financial institutions may be beyond help from US government agencies, and some banks will close.

“In a conference call with reporters, Bair touted the US Treasury’s plan introduced this morning to remove toxic assets from banks’ balance sheets.

“The public/private partnership to buy these assets and resell them to the public won’t necessarily be a 50/50 split, she said.

“Bair said the highest priority will be given to high-risk real estate loans, because the problems are with these assets.

“She said the most difficult part of the program will be to price the assets properly, but that government agencies will find the best possible structure to do so, adding that she expects the program will be profitable.”

Source: CEP News, March 24, 2009.

The New York Times: Battles over reform plan lie ahead
“Outlining a far-reaching proposal on Thursday to rebuild the nation’s broken system of financial regulation, the Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, fired the opening salvo in what is likely to be a marathon battle.

“‘Our system failed in fundamental ways,’ Mr. Geithner told the House Financial Services Committee. ‘To address this will require comprehensive reform. Not modest repairs at the margin, but new rules of the game.’

“On the surface, both the lawmakers who listened to the Treasury secretary and the financial industry’s lobbying groups made it sound as if they completely agreed with Mr. Geithner’s call for what he described as ‘better, smarter tougher regulation.’

“But in fact industry groups are already mobilizing to block restrictions they oppose and win new protections they have wanted for years. Even though Mr. Geithner carefully avoided specific details, laying out mostly broad principles for overhauling the system, financial industry groups are identifying issues they plan to pursue and lining up well-connected lobbyists and publicists to help make their cases.

“If history is any guide, Mr. Geithner’s proposals will start an equally intense battle among the regulatory agencies themselves – including the alphabet soup of banking regulators, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Reserve – to stay in business and enhance their authority.

“Hedge funds and private equity funds, which have been almost entirely unregulated, would have to register with the SEC and tell it about their risk-management practices. Many financial derivative instruments, like credit-default swaps, would come under supervision for the first time.

“Mr. Geithner’s most specific proposal, which Democratic lawmakers hope to pass in the next few weeks, would allow the federal government to seize control of troubled institutions whose collapse or bankruptcy might jeopardize the broader financial system.”

Source: Edmund Andrews, The New York Times, March 26, 2009.

CNBC: JPMorgan’s Dimon on meeting with Obama
“Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, sits down for an exclusive interview with CNBC’s Erin Burnett. Dimon discusses the meeting he and other bank CEOs had with President Obama.”

Source: CNBC, March 27, 2009.

News N Economics: Real money supply: surging in some countries, not so much in others
“The Fed’s recent and extreme policies have made people nervous about inflation. They should be, but just not right now. Key central banks recently added hydrogen to their engines in the form of quantitative easing, causing high-powered money to surge. However, the multiplier is collapsing, and therefore, the new base is simply a measure to keep the money supply afloat. Some economies, though, are showing worrisome trends in their money growth rates.

“The chart below illustrates the 6-month annualized growth rate of the broad measure of real money in the US, the UK, Japan, and the Eurozone. In spite of the massive surge in the US monetary base, 231% over the last 6 months, the real US money supply grew just 22.6% over that same period. Can you imagine what would have happened had the Fed not eased so substantially? Troublesome deflation. The money multiplier is collapsing as banks hoard cash and consumers and firms pull back.

“Furthermore, like the Fed, the Bank of England (BoE) is engaged in quantitative easing, resulting in a similar 6-month money growth rate, 22.8%. The ECB and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are still increasing their broader measures of real money on a 6-month basis, but at a much slower rate. Admittedly, the BoJ is engaging in alternative policy measures, but the ECB and the BoJ are not pulling out all of the ‘easing stops’ as are the Fed and the BoE.”

Source: Rebecca Wilder, News N Economics, March 24, 2009.

Reuters: Soros – G20 a “make or break” event for markets
“The Group of 20 nations meeting next week is a ‘make or break event’ for the global markets, investor George Soros said on Wednesday.

“‘Unless it comes up with practical measures to support the countries at the periphery of the global financial system, markets are going to suffer another sinking spell just as they did on February 10, 2009, when the authorities failed to produce practical measures to recapitalize the United States banking system,’ Soros said in testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

“Soros said President Barack Obama could help make the G20 meeting a success by raising a possible solution that would involve increasing the amount that developing countries – from Eastern Europe to Africa – can effectively borrow from the International Monetary Fund.

“The urgent task of re-inflating the global economy has to be carried out mainly by the IMF, ‘imperfect and beleaguered as it is, because it is the only institution available,’ Soros said.

“While the IMF’s resources were likely to be doubled at the G20 meeting of big developed and developing countries, that would not provide a systemic solution for the developing world, Soros said.

“But a systemic solution was readily available in the form of special drawing rights (SDRs), an international reserve asset created by the IMF in 1969 that has the potential to act as a super-sovereign reserve currency.

“In addition to the one-time increase of the IMF’s resources, there ought to be substantial annual SDR issues, say $250 billion, as long as the global recession lasts, he said.”

Source: Reuters, March 25, 2009.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Minor Q4 GDP revisions, corporate profits plunge
“Real GDP is estimated to have dropped at an annual rate of 6.3% in the fourth quarter of 2008. This is virtually unchanged from the earlier estimate of a 6.2% drop of real GDP. In 2008, real GDP increased 1.1% after a 2.03% increase in 2007.

“On a Q4-to-Q4 basis, the 0.85% drop in real GDP in the fourth quarter is the first decline in real GDP since the 1990-91 recession. The economy is expected to post another sharp quarterly reduction in real GDP in the first quarter of 2009 (-6.1%), with these two quarterly declines chalking up to be the weakest quarters of the current recession.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust – Daily Global Commentary, March 26, 2009.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Consumer spending in Q1 most likely to show increase
“Contrary to our earlier expectations, consumer spending in the first quarter is most likely to show an increase. The sharp upward revision of inflation adjusted consumer spending in January (+0.7% versus +0.4% in the original report) is the main reason for this revision. Nominal consumer spending moved up 0.2% in February after a 1.0% increase in January. However, after adjusting for inflation, consumer spending fell 0.2% in February. A conservative assumption for March results in an overall increase of consumer spending in the first quarter of 2009 of roughly 0.6%-0.8%. This in turn will result in a modification of the headline GDP forecast, which we are working on as of this writing.

“The near term trend of consumer spending is most likely to be weak owing to the severe declines in payroll employment.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust – Daily Global Commentary, March 27, 2009.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Durable goods orders – glimmer of strength emerges
“Orders of durable goods increased 3.4% in February after a downwardly revised drop in January of 7.3% (originally estimated as a 4.5% decline). The 35.3% increase in orders of defense items and the 6.6% jump in bookings of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft stand out in the report. Orders of aircraft (-28.9%) and autos (-0.6%) dropped but that of machinery (+13.5%), computers (+5.6%), and appliances rose (+1.6%) during February. The main message is that the pickup in orders of durables is significant but consistent monthly gains will be necessary to declare that the factory sector has pulled out of the current doldrums.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust – Daily Global Commentary, March 25, 2009.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): New home sales – notable pickup but more is necessary
“Sales of new homes rose 4.7% to an annual rate of 337,000, following an upward revision of sales in January and December. On a regional basis, sales of new homes increased in the South (+9.7%) and West (+6.6%) but fell in the Northeast (-3.3%) and Midwest (-9.1%). The fact that sales advanced in February is noteworthy but additional monthly gains will be necessary to reduce the inventory of unsold new homes and bring about stability in this sector.

“Sales of new single-family homes are down 43.8% in February from a year ago, after a 47.7% plunge in January. Sales of new homes have dropped 75.7% from the peak in July 2005. The trough for new home sales appears to be January 2009, for now.

“The median price of a new single-family home declined 18.1% from a year ago in February, the largest year-to-year drop on record. The median price of a new single-family home has fallen 23.5% from the peak in March 2007, also the largest peak-to-trough decline on record.

“Additional declines in prices of new homes are nearly certain given the large inventory of unsold new homes. The good news is that the inventory unsold homes fell slightly to a 12.2-month mark from the record high of 12.9 months in January.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust – Daily Global Commentary, March 25, 2009.

CEP News: Fed’s Rosengren says programs will lower consumer, business loan costs
“Recent actions by the Federal Reserve should help lower the cost of credit to consumers and businesses, according to Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speaking before the House Financial Services Committee on Monday.

“While credit availability continues to be a significant source of concern for the Federal Reserve, the Fed has ‘acted proactively and creatively to address these concerns,’ said the central banker.”

Source: Erik Kevin Franco, CEP News, March 23, 2009.

Zillow: Federal Reserve announcement drives mortgage rate drop
“Driven by the news that the Federal Reserve plans to spend an additional $750 billion to buy mortgage-backed securities, the weekly average rate borrowers were quoted on Zillow Mortgage Marketplace for thirty-year mortgages fell to 5.06%, down from 5.21% the week prior, according to the Zillow Mortgage Rate Monitor.”

Source: Zillow, March 24, 2009.

Financial Times: Ron Paul – believer in small government predicts 15-year depression
“Pension trustees and insurance company portfolio managers look away now. Your increased commitment to government bond holdings in recent times is about to blow up spectacularly.

“At least, that is the view of Ron Paul, the US congressman who ran against John McCain in last year’s Republican Party presidential nomination.

“His is a minority view. Yields on government bonds worldwide have been falling fast over the past few months and in the UK, the commencement of ‘quantitative easing’ this month sent bond prices soaring.

“But the credibility of both western governments and their currencies is waning, and has been ever since the gold standard was abandoned in 1971, says Mr Paul. And that means even ‘safe’ investments are far from safe, he claims.

“‘People will start to abandon the dollar as current and past economic policies create a steep rise in interest rates,’ Mr Paul says.

“‘If you are in Treasuries, you will need to be watchful and nimble to time your escape.’

“Unfortunately, cashing out will not protect the value of investments, he insists, because ‘fiat’ currencies will all decline over the coming years as measures to try to haul the world economy out of recession fail. ‘The current stimulus measures are making things a lot worse,’ says Mr Paul.

“‘The US government just won’t allow the correction the economy needs.’ He cites the mini-depression of 1921, which lasted just a year largely because insolvent companies were allowed to fail. ‘No one remembers that one. They’ll remember this one, because it will last 15 years.’”

“And don’t even mention shares to Mr Paul: ‘The last place you want to be is in the stock market,’ he says. ‘It may not bottom out for 10 years – just look at Japan.’”

Click here for the full article.

Source: Phil Davis, Financial Times, March 22, 2009.

Financial Times: Credit market concerns
“While equities responded strongly to the Treasury’s plan to get bad loans off banks’ balance sheets, the rally in credit markets was more muted, says FT’s Aline van Duyn.”

Source: Aline van Duyn, Financial Times, March 24, 2009.

Bespoke: S&P 500 sector breadth measures
“The S&P 500 is currently trading 3.73% above its 50-day moving average, while the average stock in the index is 5.34% above its 50-day. This is a positive breadth measure. Below we provide the same analysis for the ten S&P 500 sectors.

“As shown, the Energy sector has the most positive breadth with a difference of +4.58% between the average stock’s distance from its 50-day versus the sector’s distance from its 50-day. Consumer Discretionary ranks 2nd, followed by Technology and Telecom.

“On the negative side, the Financial sector as a whole is trading 10.12% above its 50-day, while the average stock in the sector is 5.06% abvoe its 50-day. Only two sectors remain below their 50-days after this significant market rally and they are both defensive in nature – Health Care and Utilities.”

Source: Bespoke, March 26, 2009.

Bespoke: Sector trading ranges – nearing overbought levels
“In the chart below, we highlight the current levels of each S&P 500 sector with respect to their normal trading ranges. Red shading indicates that the sector is overbought (with dark red indicating extreme overbought levels), while green shading is indicative of an oversold reading.

“Over the last week, the S&P 500 and each of its sectors have moved closer to overbought levels. There are currently four overbought sectors, no oversold sectors, and six sectors in neutral territory. Given the Nasdaq’s brief push into positive YTD territory yesterday, it’s no surprise that the Technology sector is the most overbought one in the market. Health Care, on the other hand, is the furthest from overbought levels. It is currently attempting to recover from the sell off that took place in late February after the release of the Obama budget plan.

“Over the coming weeks, it would not be surprising to see investors rotate out of the tech sector, which is nearing extreme overbought territory, and into the less extended Health Care sector.”

Source: Bespoke, March 27, 2009.

Bloomberg: Mobius says stocks at beginning of a bull market rally
“The next bull market rally has begun and there are bargains in every emerging market following a record slump in stocks, Templeton Asset Management’s Mark Mobius said.”

Click here for the article.

Source: Bloomberg, March 23, 2009.

Bloomberg: Roubini – stocks will drop as banks go “belly up”
“US stocks will fall and the government will nationalize more banks as the economy contracts through the end of 2009, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted last year’s economic crisis.

“‘The stock market is a bit ahead of the real macroeconomic and financial news,’ Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and the chairman of consulting firm Roubini Global Economics, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in London today. ‘We’ll have some major banks going belly up that will need to be taken over.’

“The global equity rebound in March that sent the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its best monthly advance in 17 years is a ‘bear-market rally’ and US Treasury yields will ‘remain relatively low’ as investors flock to the safest assets, Roubini said. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s new plan to remove toxic debt from financial companies won’t be enough for insolvent banks, he said.

“Roubini’s outlook contrasts with predictions this week from Templeton Asset Management’s Mark Mobius and Traxis Partners’ Barton Biggs, who said that equities are poised to rally as government efforts to revive the economy and banking system begin to work. Investors are ‘way too optimistic’ about the prospects for a recovery in the economy and earnings, Roubini said.”

Source: Michael Patterson and Maithreyi Seetharaman, Bloomberg, March 26, 2009.

MarketWatch: Keeping hope alive – bear market rally or new bull market?
“Is it possible to have too much of a good thing? Mae West didn’t think so, though I have it on reliable authority that she wasn’t talking about the stock market.

“And when it comes to rallies off of market lows, it is indeed possible for stocks to overdo it. That at least is the argument being made by at some of the investment newsletter editors I monitor.

“According to them, bear market rallies are almost by their very nature powerful and impressive. If we were to endow the bear market with intent, we would say that the very purpose of a rally is to draw as many gullible investors back into the market before the next leg down commences.

“… whatever else you say about the rally that began two weeks ago, it has indeed been ‘violent’ and has occurred with ‘amazing rapidity’.

“To gauge just how violent and rapid it has been, I compared the rally since March 9 to a composite of the stock market’s behavior over the first two weeks of all bull markets since 1900.

“To come up with a list of those bull markets, I followed the lead of Ned Davis Research, the institutional research firm. For them, a bull market requires one of three conditions to hold: (1) at least a 30% rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 50 calendar days, (2) at least a 13% rise in the Dow in 155 calendar days, or (3) at least a 30% reversal in the Value Line Geometric Index.

“Since the beginning of 1900, according to the research firm, there have been by this set of criteria no fewer than 34 bull markets.

“It turns out that the recent rally has been markedly more powerful than the average beginning of prior bull markets. Over the last two weeks, for example, the Dow has gained 18.8%. The Dow’s average gain over the first two weeks of past bull markets, in contrast, has been 8.4%, or less than half as much.

“In fact, of the 34 bull markets identified by Ned Davis Research, only one of them produced a greater gain in its first two weeks than in the recent rally. That was the one that began on November 13, 1929, and is hardly one that the bulls would want to brag about. That bull market lasted just five months and led to an increase of just 48% in the Dow – making it one of the most modest of bull markets in the sample, despite have one of the most impressive returns in its first two weeks.

“These historical comparisons don’t automatically mean that the market’s strength over the last two weeks is just a bear market rally, of course. But those comparisons do highlight the possibility that the recent rally, impressive as it otherwise is, will in the end prove to be just a bear market rally.”

Source: Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch, March 24, 2009.

Jeffrey Saut (Raymond James): Bear market rally or something more?
“In recent weeks, copper, steel, and energy prices have crept higher. Additionally, building permits and housing starts have come in better than expected. Meanwhile, tax refunds are up 13.3% when compared to this time last year, which is probably why retail sales have stabilized despite rising unemployment.

“Only time will tell, but it feels like the economic deterioration is no longer accelerating? Could it be that the huge increase in money supply, negative real interest rates (inflation adjusted rates) and the reintermediation we have been speaking about are beginning to have a positive impact on the economy?

“The stock market might just be sensing that, having leaped off of a generational oversold condition into a 20%, ten-session, upside stampede that produced four 90% upside days (March 10th, 12th, 17th, and 18th) within a two week period. Such enthusiastic buying has tended to be associated with the start of new bull markets. Yet as the Lowry’s service notes, ‘Our 2002 study of 90% days showed that the start of new bull markets are typically identified by a single 90% upside day, representing a rush of enthusiastic buyers which typically calms down after the first dramatic day. On rare occasions, two 90% upside days have been recorded in the first 30 days of a new bull market.’

“While we are cautious, we remain hopeful and continue to favor the upside until proven wrong, which is why we are still ‘long’ various indexes and have selectively been accumulating stocks.”

Source: Jeffrey Saut, Raymond James, March 23, 2008.

Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters): Get used to bear market rallies
“Moving on to the stock market, subscribers will have to get used to bear market action. In bear markets, counter-intuitively much of the time is spent with stocks rising, due to the frequent upward correction. For instance, during the horrendous 1929-32 bear markets there were no less than nine 15% rallies, the average lasting 15 days.

“During the 1937 to 1942 bear market, there were nine rallies of 15% or more with the average correction lasting 82 days

“During the 1946 to 1949 bear market there were two 15 % or more rallies averaging 57 days each.

“During the recent 2000 to 2002 bear market there were three 15% or more rallies averaging 5 days each.

“From November 2009 to January 2009 there were two rallies, one short and one longer one that stopped just short of 15%.

“So we have to get used to rallies in the bear market. One difficulty in dealing with bear rallies is that they can end as suddenly as they started. This is because bear market rallies don’t end with a period of distribution. The buying just stops, and down they go. This is opposite to bull market advances that usually terminate after a period of deliberate distribution.”

Source: Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters, March 24, 2009.

David Fuller (Fullermoney): Don’t look to Wall Street for the lead
“The US stock market is the big elephant in the room, casting a long shadow, but it seldom leads market moves. New bull markets are led by emerging economies, subject to governance, with their better valuations near the lows, competitive currencies, superior GDP growth prospects and comparatively thin markets. … growing list of market indices which bottomed in October and November, and have now broken up out of their trading ranges during the current rally. This is very bullish action and the way new uptrends commence.

“Many other stock market indices tested their lows established last year and found good support near those levels, evidenced by their persistent rallies towards the upper-middle of their ranges. This is consistent with base formation development. Lastly, most of the stock markets that clearly broke beneath last year’s lows earlier this month have not maintained those downward breaks. Further rallies by these indices would also confirm base development.

“Long-dated government bond markets are no longer performing. Everyone knows that their yields are not attractive for any economic environment other than a deflationary depression. Some of the money currently in bonds came from stock markets and will return to equities as confidence improves. Corporate bonds are performing and they are a lead indicator for equities.

“Copper is leading industrial commodities higher, as it did in 2003.

“Lastly, the US dollar and yen in particular are weakening against yield / resources currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. This indicates that carry trade deleveraging has not only ended but is also reversing.

“Returning to global stock markets, I maintain that the bear market mostly ended in October and November. The January to early-March sell-off looks like a successful test of support from last year’s lows for most non-Western stock markets.

“I do have some remaining concern over Wall Street and its leash effect. However, technology is a leading indicator and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index did not break downwards. The S&P 500 Index did not maintain its break beneath the November low and is pushing above psychological resistance at 800. A move above 880 would, in my view, confirm a significant downside failure and resumption of the yearend base formation development.

“Interestingly, stock markets have been extending this month’s rally against a background of short-term overbought indicators. This indicates that bears are being squeezed and that bulls are emboldened. I have previously mentioned that a significant rally would be indicated by its persistence. We now have some distance between current levels and the early-March lows, which should provide a cushion of support during the next consolidation.

“In conclusion, if the bear market is not continuing, the new bull market is already underway, although most people do not yet realise it. However this will not be fully confirmed, as I have said before, until the majority of stock markets are trading above rising 200-day moving averages. Moreover, even though the balance of technical evidence increasingly suggests that a new bull market is gradually commencing, this does not mean that all of the developing bases can support uptrends at this time. The leading Asian emerging markets and South American resources markets may actually be commencing uptrends, but many others are likely to extend their bases in coming months.”

Source: David Fuller, Fullermoney, March 26, 2009.

BCA Research: Demystifying Chinese holdings of US assets
“In an unusual disclosure, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao publicly expressed his concerns about the safety of China’s holdings of US assets, putting the country’s massive yet largely furtive foreign exchange assets into the spotlight.

“Our research finds that China currently has about 64% of its foreign reserves in US assets, a level that has declined gradually from as high as 84% in 2003. The majority of Chinese holdings of US assets are risk free and long-term in nature, but there has been a clear trend in China’s reserve holdings that shows a persistent increase in exposure to risky assets and non-US assets over the past five years.

“Although, China’s net purchases of risky US assets have dropped sharply since mid-last year, while its net purchases of Treasurys have jumped. This underscores the authorities’ reduced risk appetite amid the ongoing global storm. Their reserve diversification process could accelerate again when global financial markets stabilize. Importantly, China’s net purchases of short-term US Treasurys have jumped dramatically over the past year, accounting for the majority of the country’s total net purchases of US government paper. This is an unprecedented development and a situation that warrants close attention going forward.”

Source: BCA Research, March 23, 2009.

The Wall Street Journal: China takes aim at dollar
“China called for the creation of a new currency to eventually replace the dollar as the world’s standard, proposing a sweeping overhaul of global finance that reflects developing nations’ growing unhappiness with the US role in the world economy.

“The unusual proposal, made by central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan in an essay released Monday in Beijing, is part of China’s increasingly assertive approach to shaping the global response to the financial crisis.

“Mr. Zhou’s proposal comes amid preparations for a summit of the world’s industrial and developing nations, the Group of 20, in London next week. At past such meetings, developed nations have criticized China’s economic and currency policies.

“This time, China is on the offensive, backed by other emerging economies such as Russia in making clear they want a global economic order less dominated by the US and other wealthy nations.

“However, the technical and political hurdles to implementing China’s recommendation are enormous, so even if backed by other nations, the proposal is unlikely to change the dollar’s role in the short term. Central banks around the world hold more US dollars and dollar securities than they do assets denominated in any other individual foreign currency. Such reserves can be used to stabilize the value of the central banks’ domestic currencies.

“Monday’s proposal follows a similar one Russia made this month during preparations for the G20 meeting. Like China, Russia recommended that the International Monetary Fund might issue the currency, and emphasized the need to update ‘the obsolescent unipolar world economic order’.”

Source: Andrew Batson, The Wall Street Journal, March 24, 2009.

Bespoke: Gold testing downside support
“Just one week after the Federal Reserve devalued the dollar by announcing that they would start buying US Treasuries, one would think gold would be in rally mode and in overbought territory. However, while gold had an initial spike following the Fed’s announcement, since then the yellow metal has come back down to earth. Gold is currently close to testing its 50-day moving average, which is a level that has provided reasonable support over the last few months. If that level fails to hold, the next level of support is around its 200-day moving average at 859.”

Source: Bespoke, March 25, 2009.

Platts: Chinese buying spree sparks fears of base metal shortage in Asia
“Robust Chinese demand could result in a supply shortage of base metals in Asia even as the rest of the world grapples with low demand, market sources said this week.

“Japanese copper smelters producing a total 120,000 mt/month of copper cathode have sold out of April-May shipments. Two smelters producing 20,000-40,000 mt/month each said they may be able to offer spot cargoes in June.

“Asia’s copper market has tightened as a result, sources said. Premiums for Japanese copper for prompt shipment within 60 days have risen to $150/mt plus London Metal Exchange cash CIF Shanghai this month, from $80-100 mt/plus LME CIF Shanghai in February.

“There is no shortage yet, and no copper consumer in Asia has yet been forced to curtail production of coils or cables due to a shortage of copper feedstock, sources said.

“But if demand in recession-hit Japan does start to pick up unexpectedly, Asia may suffer shortages, impacting smaller consumers in particular that have no protection from long term contracts.”

Source: Mayumi Watanabe, Platts, March 27, 2009.

David Fuller (Fullermoney): Where do oil prices go from here?
“The consensus view is usually a contrary indicator. Near the July 2008 peak at just under $150, many analysts were forecasting $200 and higher. This trend extrapolation was often influenced by their firms’ and clients’ own speculative positions, not least in tracker funds. Around $40, the consensus was for $25, suggesting sizable short positions.

“Price charts gave a very good signal that crude oil’s bull run was over in mid-July 2008 and since December we have interpreted the ranging price action as base formation development centred on $40. I do not assume that the lows will be retested and the base might even have been completed. If so, the next reaction and consolidation, representing the first step above the base, would most likely encounter support at $47 or higher.

“Historically, demand for crude oil has only experienced a small decline during deep recessions. Global consumption of crude continued to rise during the 2001-2002 recession, albeit at a slower rate. We are currently seeing a dip in demand but as Matthew Simmons points out, it is only slight and mostly in terms of consumption in the US.

“Meanwhile, OPEC has reduced supplies, while worldwide exploration and development of oil reserves has been curtailed by low prices and financing difficulties in the global recession. The search for viable alternatives has become a priority for oil-importing countries but it is a slow process.

“Energy is a Fullermoney secular theme and our view is that it has become a bull play once again, in all its various forms. The short to medium-term risk is probably limited to additional base formation development before significant uptrends occur. That will mark the return of commodity price inflation.”

Source: David Fuller, Fullermoney, March 24, 2009.

Ifo: Further decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index
“The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in Germany has cooled again somewhat in March. The firms have reported a further worsening of their current business situation. With regard to the business outlook for the coming six months, they are again slightly less pessimistic. An economic turning point has not yet been reached, in the opinion of the survey participants.”

Source: Ifo, March 25, 2009.

CEP News: Fall in German PMIs starts moderating
“German manufacturing and services output continued to contract at severe rates in March. However, the pace of contraction unexpectedly eased over the month, Markit Economics noted.

“On Tuesday, Markit Economics reported that the German manufacturing purchasing managers rose to 32.4 in March, up modestly from February’s 32.1 level. Economists had expected the PMI to fall back to its record low 32.0 level.

“Output in the services sector also showed unexpected strength, as reflected in the services PMI rising to 41.7 from February’s 41.3 level. Expectations had been for a fall to an all-time low of 41.0.

“Taking the two PMIs together, the composite index came to a two-month high of 37.7, up 1.4 points from February’s figure.

“‘The rise in the headline composite index provides some tentative hope that the downturn has passed its nadir,’ Markit economist Mark Smith said.”

Source: CEP News, March 24, 2009.

CEP News: ECB may turn to “unconventional policy” if rates reach limit
“The European Central Bank may take unconventional measures if its key policy rate hits its lower boundary, ECB Governing Council member Nout Wellink said on Thursday.

“‘The ECB could use unconventional monetary policy, on top of the unusual expansion already implemented, if the interest rate instrument can’t be used further because of [almost] reaching the zero-rate limit,’ Wellink said in the Nederlandsche Bank’s annual report.

“The policy maker also said that months of negative price growth could not be ruled out in the euro zone. ‘[Negative inflation] isn’t a problem in itself as long as consumers don’t continuously postpone spending in the hope on further price declines,’ Wellink said.

“Wellink also said that the global economic environment is unprecedentedly uncertain.’ He added, ‘The financial system has been under unprecedented pressure since August 2007.”

“However, the central banker said that it was ‘not unrealistic to expect that the world economy will get going’ by next year.”

Source: CEP News, March 26, 2009.

Financial Times: Take-up of City offices at new low
“Take-up of new offices in the City of London has fallen to its lowest for more than 20 years as the slowdown in the economy has reined in financial services businesses from expanding and moving to new buildings.

“There has been just 220,000 sq ft of new occupied space in the Square Mile since the beginning of the year, half the previous lowest office take-up during the last recession, when 500,000 sq ft was let in the third quarter of 1991.

“The economic downturn has hit the City office market hard, with many businesses looking to cut staff and reduce office occupation. Some are also looking to sub-let their own space.

“According to data compiled by Atisreal property consultancy since 1987, the vacancy rate in the City is 12.4%, or 10m sq ft, still significantly less than the last recession, when a fifth of offices were empty.

“Even so, there are a number of new buildings set for completion in the next two years that will add to those figures.

“City rents have also fallen sharply. Dan Bayley, head of national sales and lettings at Atisreal, said that prime rents were now about £45 per sq ft, down about a third from the peak of the market in 2007 when offices were being let at about £67.50 per sq ft.

“Mr Bayley said: ‘With rents continuing to fall, landlords are experiencing further pain. However, the positive factor is that a number of occupiers really are seeing value for money and, like the West End, may start seeing more activity in the coming quarters.’”

Source: Daniel Thomas, Financial Times, March 22, 2009.

CEP News: BOJ minutes reveal steps to buy assets
“The Bank of Japan’s minutes from the February 18-19 meeting revealed the bank felt that buying corporate bonds was necessary to stabilize financial markets.

“At the meeting, the central bank held the target rate unchanged at 0.1% as expected, but also announced further measure to boost corporate financing.

“The bank said it would begin purchases of corporate bonds and extend the period of time they will buy commercial paper. The bank has met since then and expanded their purchases of Japanese government bonds.”

Source: Megan Ainscow, CEP News, March 23, 2009.

Tags: Asset Backed Securities, Ben Bernanke, Bill Gross, Commodities, Deposit Insurance Corporation, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow Jones Industrial Index, Emerging Markets, energy, ETF, Federal Deposit Insurance, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Fdic, Global Stock Markets, Government Bonds, India, Investment Program, Money Printing, Mortgage Backed Securities, Natural Resources, oil, Percentage Gain, Point Gain, Ppip, Timothy Geithner, Treasury Secretary, Troubled Assets, Us Treasury
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Nouriel Roubini: Public-Private Partnership Investment Program – Will it Work?

Wednesday, March 25th, 2009

Given how critical Nouriel Roubini (RGE Monitor) has been in the past regarding various government plans to fix the US economy, his take on the administration’s new plan to buy toxic assets is surprisingly positive. The following paragraphs have been republished from his latest newsletter.

The main components of Treasury Secretary Geithner’s new PPIP to price and remove toxic assets from banks’ balance sheets are as follows:

Basic Principles: Treasury will use $75bn – $100bn in TARP money to co-invest alongside private sector participants and the FDIC as well as the Federal Reserve, to buy $500bn to $1 trillion of toxic mortgage assets (both residential and commercial) off banks’ books (‘legacy assets’)

There are two separate approaches for legacy loans and for legacy securities. At first, Treasury will share its $75-100bn equity stake equally between the two programs with the option to shift the bulk of financing towards the option with the greater promise of success with market participants.

1) Public-Private Program for Legacy Loans: The FDIC establishes several public-private investment funds whose sole purpose will be to purchase and hold specific loan pools put up for sale by banks (large and small). The transaction price will be established by the highest bid at an auction run by the FDIC, in which a wide array of institutional investors and even individuals with a long-term orientation are encouraged to participate.

The liabilities of the investment fund consist of an equity stake (50% of which provided by auction winner, 50% from Treasury TARP), and collateralized debt issued by the investment fund and guaranteed by the FDIC to finance the remainder of the purchase price (FDIC gets guarantee fee).

Before the auction, the FDIC specifies the pool-specific debt-to-equity ratio it is willing to guarantee subject to a maximum 6-to-1 leverage ratio. The private investor would then manage the servicing of the asset pool – using asset managers approved and supervised by the FDIC – until disposal or maturity.

Example: Assuming a 6-to-1 debt-to-equity ratio, the highest bid for a loan pool with $100 face value might turn out to be $84. Of this amount, the FDIC would provide $72 in debt guarantees whereas the equity stake of $12 would be shared equally between the auction winner ($6) and the Treasury ($6).

2) Legacy Securities Program: The legacy securities program is to be incorporated into the Term Asset-Backed Securities Facility (TALF) whose original goal was to provide collateralized financing (non-recourse loans) to buyers of newly created consumer loan/small business loan ABS. Under the Legacy Securities Program, the eligible collateral for TALF is extended to include non-agency RMBS that were originally rated AAA and outstanding CMBS and ABS that are rated AAA.

Example: Under the Legacy Securities Program, up to five Treasury-approved fund managers will have a period of time to raise private capital to target the purchase of designated securities. Assuming the fund manager is able to raise $100 of private capital for the fund, Treasury will provide $100 equity co-investment alongside private investors. Treasury will then provide a $100 loan to the public-private investment fund. Moreover, Treasury may also choose to provide an additional loan of up to $100 to the fund. The investment fund then has $300-$400 at its disposal to buy legacy securities at its discretion. As a purchaser of TALF-eligible securities, the PPIF would also have access to the expanded TALF program of collateralized Fed loans when it is launched.

Assessment

The main sticking points in previous market-based approaches to clear toxic assets from banks’ books were threefold:

a) How to value illiquid assets?
b) Once a transaction price is established, will banks be willing to sell and take a hair cut?
c) How to induce private investors to purchase legacy assets without unduly wasting taxpayer money?

a) Valuation of Illiquid Assets
The theoretical foundations of Geithner’s plan are provided by Lucian Bebchuk from Harvard University among others. He explains that “if the underlying market failure is at least partly one of liquidity, an effective plan for a public-private partnership in buying troubled assets can be designed. The key is to have competition at two levels.

First, at the level of buying troubled assets, the government’s program should focus on establishing many competing funds that are privately managed and partly funded with private capital – and not creating one, large “aggregator bank” – funded with public and private capital and engaging in purchasing troubled assets.

Second, several potential fund managers should compete for government capital under a market mechanism resulting in maximum participation of private capital and minimum costs to taxpayers.”

Geithner’s plan seems to follow these guidelines to a large degree. In particular, on the one hand the government subsidy allows private investors to bid a higher price than otherwise warranted (i.e. the government gives investors the equivalent of a call option.) On the other hand, the fact that the private investor is bound to lose its entire equity stake if the asset value deteriorates from artificially high valuations provides an incentive to bid conservatively. Both effects together may contribute to a reasonable level of price discovery. In case of the securities program, the prospect of refinancing purchased legacy securities with TALF via a non-recourse loan (which is the equivalent of a put option) should incentivize private investors to bid higher than otherwise warranted.

b) Will banks participate?
A similar purely private solution to get toxic assets off banks’ balance sheets was tried with Paulson’s aborted Super-SIV when legacy assets were still marked substantially higher than at present. It became clear then that the private sector will require a possibly substantial taxpayer subsidy in order to overcome the collective action paralysis. Indeed, in the case of the legacy loan example outlined in the Geithner plan with a 6/1 leverage, private investors that invest 7.1% (=1/7 * 0.5) of the equity will get 50% of any upside in return. While Treasury will also share in any upside by half, any downside beyond the private investors’ equity stake is clearly borne by the taxpayers.

While this subsidy to investors provides a powerful incentive to bid prices up in a competitive auction, banks stuck with particularly toxic assets or thin capital buffers may still find a potential writedown at market-clearing prices prohibitive and some might need to be recapitalized after taking the hair cut. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair has already warned that while this plan will help many solvent banks get rid of their toxic assets thus clearing the way for new loans and fresh capital some banks are beyond the stage of rescue. Those borderline insolvent banks will likely require an additional incentive to sell or mandatory participation otherwise they will prefer to hold on to their assets, especially in view of the FASB’s prospective easing of mark-to-market accounting rules.

For the sake completeness, some commentators would also like to see better safeguards established in order to prevent banks and asset managers from potentially colluding in their common interest to the detriment of the taxpayer.

c) And taxpayers?
At the end of the day the performance of the toxic legacy assets is driven by the cash flow performance of the underlying loans. Keep in mind that among subprime borrowers, serious delinquencies and foreclosures have affected about 20% of outstanding loans as of December 2008 thus impairing the cash flow directed to junior RMBS investors and/or ABS CDOs consisting of these junior tranches. While ABX prices responded positively to the prospect of increased buyer interest, the ultimate loan value will depend on whether households and commercial real estate borrowers will continue making payments in the future. More on that below.

As a practical example of the performance of a toxic portfolio, take the Fed’s Maiden Lane portfolio with Bear Stearns assets. Cumberland Advisors reported that so far the results aren’t promising, and they see no prospect for a profit on the assets. In fact, the portfolio has lost over 10% of its value, and losses are mounting. At present, losses on that portfolio exceed $4.5 billion and the taxpayers’ share is now $3.5 billion. Others point to the low recovery value of IndyMac’s mortgage portfolio as a benchmark.

Bottom line: Will it get credit flowing again?

The immediate market reaction (equities and investment grade CDS staged a substantial rally, less so high yield CDS) was clearly one of relief that nationalization seems to be off the table for now and that the administration is committed to market-based solutions. While the extent of the guarantees almost makes one wonder why the involvement of the private sector is needed in the first place, it is the involvement of the private sector that creates a context in which price setting and discovery happen based on a market mechanism.

An important question at this point is: What should we look at while assessing the plan in the months ahead?

Clearly the unfreeze of credit markets would be the first sign of success but we might not see this happening before some time. Some of the banks that choose to sell assets and take a writedown might be in need of additional capital before they can resume lending. Also, for those institutions that are beyond the stage of rescue and effectively insolvent, the plan will likely not be as effective in stimulating lending or participation in the first place.

The increase in the supply of credit that will come from institutions that are solvent will be important, but will demand be there to do its part? If the real side of the economy continues to deteriorate, it is likely that credit demand might be subdued. Moreover, a further continued deterioration on the real side of the economy would imply new defaults on credit cards, consumer loans, auto loans and mortgages that would result in new toxic assets on the balance sheets of financial institutions recreating an environment where banks would maintain stringent lending standards. Therefore, the success of the plan is a necessary but not sufficient condition to get the economy back on a recovery path. The success of the fiscal stimulus package in sustaining aggregate demand and minimizing job losses and the success in restarting demand in the housing sector will be instrumental to put a stop to the negative feedback loop between the real and the financial side of the economy.

Moreover, if the negative feedback loop persists, need for further funding will arise. While it will be very challenging to obtain Congress approval for additional TARP money, we should point out that the government has set aside an additional $750bn in the FY2010 budget in aid for the financial sector.

Hence, taking care of legacy loans and securities is a welcome step forward, especially for solvent institutions whose asset values are subject to a substantial liquidity discount. However, insolvent institutions might not find as much relief from this plan, and the impact of the plan on the real economy might not be enough to pull the economy out of a contraction for good part of this year and sluggish growth thereafter. But by conducting auctions and determining the market value of the toxic assets, the Treasury will be implicitly using the private sector to ‘stress test’ the financial system to determine which banks are insolvent and therefore will need further government intervention.

Source: Nouriel Roubini, RGE Monitor, March 24, 2009.

Tags: Auction Winner, Debt To Equity Ratio, Equity Stake, Geithner, Guarantee Fee, Investment Fund, Investment Program, Legacy Assets, Leverage Ratio, Loan Pools, Market Participants, Mortgage Assets, Partnership Investment, Private Investment Funds, Private Investor, Private Program, Private Sector Participants, Public Private Partnership, Transaction Price, Treasury Secretary
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