Posts Tagged ‘Good Job’
Friday, February 24th, 2012
A funny thing happened while we all waited for the Fed to announce QE3. The rest of the world did it for them. Courtesy of Bloomberg’s excellent Economics Brief, and the n’th time, here is what a multi-trillion dollar liquidity expansion looks like even with the Fed running silent. And this is also what $10 trillion in 2 years pumped into the markets looks like. Wonder where the market gets its “spring step” from? Now you know. Thank you Economist PhD’s!
We do note that EUR strength recently (as the ECB appears done for now) and the acceleration of asset prices in Europe (bank stocks, credit etc.) appear to have done a good job of discounting the next LTRO already – and in fact are starting to retrace as LTRO 2 expectations are ratcheted back from the cajillion EUR level as the stigma continues to rise, ECB members raise concerns over dependency (banks are not forced to delever and also will not re-engage in the inter-bank lending market), and just like last year perhaps the ECB will hike rates to stall inflation fears (thinking of all-time record local currency gas prices as transitory is hard after a persistent 3 year trend higher).
Tags: Acceleration, Asset Prices, Bank stocks, Banks, Bloomberg, Currency, ECB, Economist, Funny Thing, Gas Prices, Good Job, Inflation Fears, liquidity, Nbsp, Rest Of The World, Spring Step, Stigma, Th Time, Time Record, Trillion
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Friday, August 12th, 2011
by Trader Mark, Fund My Mutual Fund
As I stressed about 2 weeks ago, when the markets were focused on Italy, the real linchpin would be France. While the equity market there had been hit along with the rest of Europe, the first real debt panic showed up, manifesting itself in the French banks, especially Societe Generale (“SocGen”). While I got the country correct, the form of this manifestation was not exactly the way I envisioned – I thought it would be more of a blowup of the sovereign credit default swaps and spike in bond yields as happened in Spain and Italy. Instead there seems to be more worry about the debt held on French banks, especially if there is a downgrade from AAA on France itself. LIBOR – a term we have not had to know much about since early 2009 – is back in the picture.
Whatever the case, France needs to be firewalled. Futures are flying all over place this morning, just as volatile as the regular session. There was a Reuters report (see here) this morning from an unnamed ‘banking source’ (could be a hedge fund shorting the French banks for all we know!) that an Asian bank had reduced credit lines to major French lenders. Then about 15 minutes ago reports come out that France and Germany will meet either tomorrow (WSJ) or early next week…. and futures reversed sharply. I do think ultimately the ECB will need to be open to bond buying of France, but without the explicit approval to ‘print’, the ECB will need money from somewhere to do the buying. All that is left of any size is Germany of course.
Anyhow, interesting times. This European analyst on CNBC this morning did a very good job describing the backdrop and potential outcomes as he sees it.
5 minute video
Tags: Asian Bank, Backdrop, Blowup, Bond Yields, Case France, Cnbc, Credit Default Swaps, ECB, Explicit Approval, French Banks, Future France, Good Job, Hedge Fund, Interesting Times, Libor, Linchpin, Mutual Fund, Reuters Report, Societe Generale, Wsj
Posted in ETFs, Markets | Comments Off
Tuesday, December 9th, 2008
Charlie Rose interviews Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, December 4. Taleb’s outlook makes Roubini seem an optimist. The interview is 23 minutes in length. Taleb leads a fascinating discussion with Charlie Rose, rich in analogy, and with a clarity that is brings all that is going on in the financial system into the glare of daylight.
Here is an excerpt:
CHARLIE ROSE: But let me go – you mentioned Nouriel Roubini, who has been here and who has become well-known as someone who has predicted this and saw it coming, and scares the hell out of people when he comes and sits where you do, because he sees it as getting worse, and even suggests sometimes it may mark the decline of America. How bad do you think…
NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: I think it is worse than Roubini thinks.
No, I – I had the same story, haven’t changed my story since – and what convinced me of this is that we switched from an environment of inflation, hyperinflation, where people are afraid of commodity prices rising, to a total deflation in no time. Look at inflation bonds…
… I know that we are going have massive deflation. The overhang of debt, massive deflation. Debt needs to be reduced. And I think Paulson seems to be doing a good job, particularly that they were part of the cause of what happened, you know, it is quite commendable.
Tags: America, Analogy, author, Black Swan, Blog, Bonds, Br, Charlie Rose, Clarity, Commodity, Commodity Prices, Decline Of America, Deflation, Dow, Eco, Excerpt, Glare, Good Job, Hell, Hyperinflation, inflation, interview, Interviews, James Taylor, Loc, Nassim Taleb, Nicholas Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, Optimist, Outlook, Overhang, Paulson, People, Rose, Roubini, Swan, Taleb, The Black Swan, Value, Video, Yo Yo Ma
Posted in Bonds, Markets, Outlook | 2 Comments »