Rosenberg: Economy – Prognosis Negative

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

The Treasury market is giving you a recessionary signal, says David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff & Associates, who adds that a decline in the GDP will not be that catastrophic but it could last a long time; with Doug Dachille, First Principles Capital Management.

Rosenberg’s points were summarized by Josh Brown of the Reformed Broker blog as follows:

* We are already in recession, and while this one may last awhile, there is no evidence to support claims that this recession will be as catastrophic as the one that began in 2007.

* Both gold and Treasuries have more room to run, but tactically-speaking, buyers should hold off at today’s prices as both are overdue for a short-term pullback.

* There’s no reason to be completely out of equities, but one should be underweight the amount of equities they’d own in a cyclical bull market, which this assuredly is not.

* The equities you do own ought to be defensive in nature and not cyclical, they should have good earnings visibility and solid dividends.

* The best type of stimulus the government could do would be something tied to energy. Natural gas infrastructure build-out for example would put legions of Americans to work and could eventually lead to much lower energy prices for consumers leading to a higher amount of disposable income.

Source: CNBC, August 23, 2011 (hat tip: The Big Picture).

Tags: Big Picture, Capital Management, Catastrophic, Cnbc, David Rosenberg, Disposable Income, Energy Prices, First Principles, Gluskin Sheff, Gold, Hat Tip, Income Source, Infrastructure, Josh Brown, Legions, Natural Gas Infrastructure, Prognosis, Pullback, Recession, Stimulus, Treasuries, Treasury Market
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Meredith Whitney’s Muni Meltdown Scenario: Paranoia?

Tuesday, January 25th, 2011

Discussing whether Meredith Whitney’s predictions on the muni bond market are overblown, with Thomas Doe, Municipal Market Advisors CEO, and Doug Dachille, First Principles Capital Management CEO.

Source: CNBC, January 20, 2011.

The chart below, courtesy of Barclays Capital (via Business Insider – Clusterstock) illustrates the “The Meredith Whitney Effect”.

Click here or on the image below for a larger chart.

Source: Barclays Capital (via Business Insider – Clusterstock), January 20, 2011.

Tags: Barclays, Barclays Capital, Bond Market, Business Insider, Capital Management, Ceo, Chart Source, Cnbc, Doe, First Principles, January 20, Meltdown, Meredith Whitney, Muni Bond, Paranoia
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