Energy and Natural Resources Market Radar (July 16, 2012)

Saturday, July 14th, 2012

Energy and Natural Resources Market Radar (July 16, 2012)

Strengths

• The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury Notes closed at 1.488 percent on Friday, below the May Consumer Price Index of 1.7 percent, giving investors a negative real return. Comparatively, the Global Resources Fund’s portfolio currently has an average dividend yield of 3.75 percent.
• China’s GDP grew 7.6 percent for the second quarter year-over-year, slightly lower than expected, leading to a gain in copper and crude oil futures toward the end of the week. It seems that the market is expecting a stimulus to come about from China to offset all the pressures of slowing growth. The global financial crisis was the last time China’s demand slowed this much, having a GDP increase of only 6.2 percent during the first quarter of 2009 year-over-year.
• Corn prices hit 52-week highs this week after the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated a drop in crop yields of 12 percent, the largest month-over-month drop in nearly a decade. Jerry Norton, chair of the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee, stated that “It’s a very unusual situation.” Only 40 percent of the nation’s corn crop is in good to excellent condition, significantly lower from last year’s 69 percent rating.
• Oil prices (Brent) gained over 4 percent this week to close at a six-week high of $102.76 per barrel as hopes for additional stimulus from the Chinese government boosted sentiment.

Weaknesses

• Statoil was set to shut down operations until the government of Norway intervened on the 16-day oil strike, putting an end to the restriction of supply that was driving up oil prices. The workers were forced back to work and the National Wages Board will attempt to resolve the conflict.
• Although China imports were up year-over-year in June, they increased by only 6.3 percent, less than half of forecasts, contributing further to an already stressed demand with regard to commodities. One factor of the increase in China’s trade surplus can be attributed to the excess stockpiling measures China took before Indonesia’s export tax on metals went into effect in May.
• China’s main coal mining provinces have plans to cut back on output in an effort to alleviate market conditions. According to Platts, a number of Shanxi-based miners have already cut output by 20 to 30 percent since May.
• U.S. net new aluminum orders fell sharply in June, according to data released from the Aluminum Association. Aluminum orders (less can stock) fell 4.4 percent year-over-year in June.

Opportunities

• China Copper Mines has applied to exploit five mineral waste dumps in Zambia which may have a yield of 600 metric tons of copper cathode per year. This project will increase China’s presence in Zambia, Africa’s largest producer of copper.

• Julio Velarde Flores, President of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru, commented this week on the growth prospects of the country. He is optimistic and believes they can exceed the economic growth targets for the year. Peru, the world’s second largest producer of copper, is in the process of seeking investment from wealth funds in Singapore.
• Anglo American has reached a deal with the government of Moquegua to build a $3 billion Quellaveco copper mine, according to Oscar Valdes, Prime Minister of Peru. 220,000 tons of copper per year is estimated to come out of Quellaveco, which is close to one-fifth of Peru’s 2011 total output.

Threats

• By 2016, the Democratic Republic of Congo hopes to triple its current output of copper to 1.5 million, according to Mines Minister Martin Kabwelulu. The Congo has about half of the world’s cobalt reserves, and is aiming to boost output by 65 percent. The government, however, plans on increasing the state’s stake in mining operations which will be used to promote the growth of industry, the country, and its people.
• According to Reuters, Baoshan Iron & Steel, China’s biggest listed steelmaker, will cut August prices of its main products by 4.6 percent as seasonal demand slows. Global Times recently reported that China’s domestic steel prices hit two-year lows during the first week of July. Until we see more quantitative easing in China, we will be unlikely to see any large gains in steel prices in the near future.
• The U.S. Energy Information Administration lowered its 2013 forecast of global oil demand to 730,000 barrels per day. The International Energy Agency however took a contrarian viewpoint with their forecast, estimating that oil demand would rise by one million barrels per day, 1.1 percent higher than in 2012, but still lower than levels seen prior to the financial crisis.

Tags: 52 Week Highs, China Imports, Consumer Price Index, Copper Futures, Corn Crop, Corn Prices, Crop Yields, Crude Oil Futures, Department Of Agriculture, Dividend Yield, Gdp Increase, Global Financial Crisis, Global Resources, Government Of Norway, Market Radar, Oil Strike, Resources Fund, Time China, Treasury Notes, U S Treasury
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Energy and Natural Resources Market Radar (April 9, 2012)

Sunday, April 8th, 2012

Energy and Natural Resources Market Radar (April 9, 2012)

Strengths

• Saudi Arabia is likely to maintain high oil production in the event consumer countries release emergency stocks, but it will not seek to lure buyers for more oil by discounting its crude, industry sources said. Spare capacity has fallen below 2 million barrels per day which typically is a sign of a tight oil market.
• Palm oil gained to the highest level in more than a year on speculation that buying from China, the biggest user of cooking oils, may increase when local markets reopen this week after a three-day holiday. June-delivery palm oil rose as much as 1.2 percent to 3,574 ringgit ($1,167) a metric ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, the highest for a most-active contract since March 9 last year. Financial markets in China were closed from April 2 for public holidays. Palm oil advanced 2.9 percent in two days after a U.S government survey showed soybean acreage in the world’s largest producer will decline. Palm oil and soybean oil are substitutes in food and fuel uses.
• Also in agriculture, soybeans jumped 3.5 percent after the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut the acreage to 73.9 million acres which is the lowest since 2007. Soybeans advanced 17.1 percent in the first quarter and were the best-performing agriculture commodity year to date as dry weather conditions in South America hurt crops.
• The Sun reports that stores are hiking the price of Easter eggs — even though the cost of producing them has fallen. Since peaking two years ago, cocoa prices have plunged by a third. But Easter egg favorites are still up in price.

Weaknesses

• A slump in coal exports contributed to another monthly trade deficit for Australia. Exports were down to their lowest level in a year at A$24.4 billion as coal exports plunged 21 percent to A$3.4 billion, the lowest since March 2011. Hard coking coal exports were down $597 million, 27 percent, hurt by volumes down 27 percent. Thermal coal export volumes were down 16 percent and prices were down 4 percent, implying a 19 percent drop in dollar terms.
• While gold producers in Mali signal mining operations have so far gone unaffected by a recent military coup d’état and an ongoing rebel insurgency in the country’s north, juniors, intermediates and majors alike have suspended work at Malian exploration projects citing, among other reasons, fuel-supply risk and flight of foreign personnel. The latest notice of suspension of exploration operations comes from intermediate producer IAMGOLD.
• Bloomberg news reported waning demand for gasoline is putting the U.S. on course to miss a target for ethanol use for the first time, signaling no let-up in the slide in prices. A 2007 U.S. law requires refiners to mix 13.2 billion gallons of renewable products with motor fuels in 2012, up 4.8 percent from last year. Gasoline demand averaged over four weeks fell 3.8 percent from a year earlier, the U.S. Energy Department reported this week.

Opportunities

• Global food prices rose in March for a third successive month, driven by gains in grains and vegetable oils, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said on Thursday, putting food inflation firmly back on the economic agenda. Food prices hit record highs in February 2011 and stoked protests connected to the Arab Spring wave of civil unrest in some north African and middle eastern countries. They then receded but started to grow again in January. An FAO index that measures monthly price changes for a food basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy, meat and sugar, averaged 215.9 points in March, up from a revised 215.4 points in February, FAO data showed. Its Cereal Price Index averaged 227 points in March, up from February, with maize prices showing gains, supported by low inventories and a strong soybean market, the FAO said. “You can see prices in the near term rising even further,” FAO’s senior economist and grain analyst Abdolreza Abbassian told Reuters before the index update.
• China is mulling a new round of subsidies for the home appliance sector that may help support copper demand this year according to Hu Xiaohong, an official with China Household Electrical Appliances Association. Subsidies for the purchase of energy-saving models of air conditioners and televisions are being considered. Last year, air-conditioner manufacturers were the second-largest consumers of copper in China, behind the power sector comprising 15 percent of consumption.
• Chinese aluminum producer Chalco is said to be buying a controlling stake in a Mongolian coal miner. Chinese aluminum producer Chalco has agreed to buy 56-60 percent of SouthGobi Resources at $4.89/share (a 29 percent premium over SouthGobi’s closing price) from Ivanhoe Mines. Chinese miners have increased initiatives to acquire overseas natural resources assets as the deal suggests. Chalco is diversifying its exposure out of aluminum and is investing in other resources as well; however, this coal will help in securing coal for its aluminum production, too.
• In coking coal, BHP Billiton has declared force majeure on coal shipments from its Bowen Basin coal mines in Australia due to a continued workers’ strike and heavy rainfall. The industrial action at the BHP Billiton-Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA) operated Bowen Basin coal mines has clearly intensified, adding to the rolling work stoppages experienced since June 2011. BMA-operated coal mines together produced 38.2 million tonnes of coking coal, accounting for 14 percent of the global coking coal trade and 29 percent of Australian coking coal exports in 2011.

Threats

• Despite some confusion, an industry ministry official said this week that Indonesia plans to impose a 25 percent export tax on coal and base metals this year, jumping to 50 percent in 2013, as the major producer of raw materials looks to boost domestic investment and take a bigger slice of mining profits. If imposed, the tax would add to a raft of regulations announced this year that have caused confusion in Indonesia’s mining sector and worried foreign investors. It would hit the profits of both national and foreign-owned companies and could also raise costs for importers. India, a major buyer of Indonesian coal, said it would raise concerns about the proposed tax with Jakarta.
• States hoping to capitalize on their energy booms are running into resistance from local officials who want to be able to police the noise and industrialization that accompany oil-and-gas drilling. Last Thursday, seven towns collectively sued Pennsylvania in state court to overturn a law passed in February that prevents them from using their zoning authority to regulate oil-and-gas development. The day before, an Ohio state senator introduced legislation to grant local officials more control over where companies can drill. The municipalities are fighting laws that bar them from regulating drilling, enacted by state lawmakers who feared towns would stunt job-creation and a stream of tax revenue.
• Agrimoney reported that “U.S. corn stocks may fall over 2011-12 up to 50 percent more than officials are currently factoring in,” analysts said, as they reacted to data showing inventories weaker-than-expected at the mid-year stage. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has forecast a 327 million bushel drop in inventories, to 801 million bushels, over the current season, depleted by resilient domestic and export demand following a disappointing harvest. However, investors expected the figure to be revised after inventory data, released on Friday, showed stocks as of March 1 at a multi-year low of 6.0 billion bushels, and below market forecasts.
• Argentina’s Neuquen Province has revoked oil and gas concessions held by three companies, Tecpetrol, Argenta Argentina and Petrobras, because the companies had not invested enough in production at the oil fields, the province said in a statement. The concessions will be given to the provincial government’s oil and gas company, Gas y Petroleo del Neuquen.

Tags: Agriculture, China, Coal Exports, Cocoa Prices, Coking Coal, Consumer Countries, Cooking Oils, Department Of Agriculture, Dry Weather Conditions, Easter Egg, Easter Eggs, Food And Fuel, Gold, Government Survey, India, Industry Sources, Market Radar, Metric Ton, Mining, Oil Market, Palm Oil, Public Holidays, Soybean Acreage, Soybean Oil, Sun Reports
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The Economy and Bond Market Cheat Sheet (October 17, 2011)

Saturday, October 15th, 2011

The Economy and Bond Market Cheat Sheet (October 17, 2011)

The yield on the 10-year U.S Treasury note increased by 17 basis points to end the week at 2.25 percent.

Strengths

• Retail sales rose 1.1 percent in September, the largest gain in seven months and above the 0.7 percent consensus.
• The U.S Department of Agriculture announced Thursday that China had purchased 900,000 metric tons of corn. It was one of China’s biggest-ever purchases of corn on overseas markets.
• The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism increased to 88.9 in September, the first gain in seven months, from Augusts’ 88.1 which was the weakest since July 2010. The index averaged 100.7 in the six-year expansion that ended in December 2007.

Weaknesses

• This week the International Energy Agency, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and the U.S Energy Information Administration all lowered forecasts for oil demand in 2012, assuming a slowdown in global economic growth.
• New unemployment claims remain high.  New claims fell by 1,000 last week to 404,000, slightly below the 405,000 consensus, but claims at this level still suggest weak hiring.
• Economists polled by Reuters expect the rate of growth in the world economy to slow to 3.6 percent in 2012 from 3.8 percent this year.

Opportunities

• With the economy weak and concerns brewing about an additional financial crisis, the Fed will remain accommodative for some time and bonds appear well supported in the current environment.
• Globally central banks have become attune to the risks of a global slowdown and will likely act to bolster economic growth.

Threats

• The threat of a more significant global economic slowdown than many expected just a couple of months ago has increased sharply.
• The threat of another global financial crisis cannot be ruled out.

Tags: Basis Points, Bond Market, Bonds, Business Optimism, Central Banks, Department Of Agriculture, Energy Information Administration, Global Economic Growth, Global Economic Slowdown, Global Financial Crisis, Global Slowdown, International Energy Agency, Nfib Index, Oil Demand, Organization Of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Overseas Markets, Petroleum Exporting Countries, U S Energy, U S Treasury, Unemployment Claims, World Economy
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Energy and Natural Resources Market Cheat Sheet (August 29, 2011)

Saturday, August 27th, 2011

Energy and Natural Resources Market Cheat Sheet (August 29, 2011)

Strengths

• The Global Resources Fund performed relatively well for the week, despite overall global economic uncertainty and volatile market activity. Exposure to precious metals helped the fund, while maintaining little exposure to negatively-performing sectors limited downside risk. The fund continues to benefit from exposure to the food and agriculture sector.
• Refining margins continue to remain very strong, with the spread between Brent Oil and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) remaining consistent, by about $30. This has been contributing to the strong performance of the oil and gas refining sector. The fund has also benefited from exposure to the refiners.
• Corn rose to a 10-week high in Chicago and soybeans gained as worsening crop conditions in the U.S., the top global exporter, raised concern that supply may be smaller than estimated. The Department of Agriculture said Monday that conditions deteriorated last week for the U.S. corn and soybean crops. Corn for December delivery has already climbed 6 cents. Only 57 percent of the corn in the top 18 producing states was in good or excellent condition as of August 21, down from 60 percent a week earlier and 70 percent a year earlier, according to Bloomberg.
• According to Bloomberg, U.S. wheat shipments to Egypt, Iraq, Japan and Saudi Arabia surged in the first half of this year, driven by political turmoil and natural disasters, to wrap up the best export season since 1992-1993. A drought led Russia to cut off its exports from August until last month, giving the U.S. an opening. Low rainfall in Iraq and Saudi Arabia’s move to save water by reducing domestic production drove demand as well. Exports to Japan jumped because of a weather-shortened harvest in 2010 and possible food hoarding after the March earthquake and tsunami.
• Deutsche Bank highlighted that copper demand exceeded supply by 80,000 tons in May which brought the shortage to 146,000 tons for the first five months of this year, compared with 162,000 tons in the same period last year, according to the International Copper Study Group.
• The Energy Department said the nation’s oil supplies dropped by 2.2 million barrels last week, which helped to keep the price higher. Oil rose Wednesday following news of strong U.S. manufacturing activity. Benchmark West Texas crude rose 75 cents to $86.19 a barrel in New York, while Brent crude was up $1.34 at $110.65 per barrel in London that day.

Weaknesses

• The fund also did not have any exposure to the construction and materials group, which experienced positive gains for the week.
• Deutsche Bank recently published an article stating that output from Chile’s Escondida mine dropped 14 percent in the first half from the previous year to 452 kilotons due to declining ore grade and labor issues. BHP Billiton’s Escondida mine, the world’s biggest copper mine, experienced striking issues the last few months. Chile is the world’s largest copper producer, accounting for one-third of global supply.
• Aluminum, zinc and nickel continue their weak performance relative to other metals. The ongoing global sovereign uncertainty, lower GDP forecasts for the U.S., bleak consumer sentiment, a potential world-wide recession and overall global negative sentiment are all contributing factors.

Opportunities

• Independent oil analyst Andrew Lipow said refineries along the East Coast will likely decide whether to shut down production ahead of Hurricane Irene, which could disrupt gasoline shipments and hit refineries in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Once stopped, refineries usually need 10 to 21 days to get back up and running at full capacity. That means gasoline supplies could drop and prices rise, he said.
• According to Forbes, the government reported that orders for long-lasting, durable goods like autos and aircraft increased 4 percent in July, the biggest increase since March. Manufacturing is a major driver of economic growth, and more manufacturing boosts energy demand.
• The Financial Times highlighted that the U.S. ethanol industry, now the top domestic corn user, has not been slowed by high corn prices, with output up 4 percent from a year ago.

Threats

• Again, with no clarity on the issue of the global sovereign debt, there is a risk that we will continue to experience volatile market activity. Already-established negative trends may continue among commodities and sectors.
• Dan Greenhaus, Chief Global Strategist for BTIG LLC, reported that investors are likely disappointed by the lack of any policy specifics from Chairman Bernanke’s speech Friday. He highlighted that Bernanke said that the debt ceiling debate damaged the credibility of the United States and suggested more such debates are likely to do further damage. Bernanke emphasized that without significant policy changes, the finances of the federal government will inevitably spiral out of control, risking severe economic financial damage. He did not present a Quantitative Easing 3 outline, which contributes to the nation’s remaining uncertainty for the future.

Tags: Agriculture Sector, Bloomberg, Brent Oil, Cheat Sheet, Commodities, Crop Conditions, Crude Oil, Department Of Agriculture, Downside Risk, Global Economic Uncertainty, Global Exporter, Global Resources, Natural Disasters, Political Turmoil, precious metals, Refiners, Resources Fund, Saudi Arabia, Soybean Crops, Volatile Market, West Texas Intermediate, Wti
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Energy and Natural Resources Market Cheat Sheet (April 4, 2011)

Saturday, April 2nd, 2011

Energy and Natural Resources Market Cheat Sheet (April 4, 2011)

Strengths

• Japan’s shipments of rolled-aluminum products increased 2.3 percent year-over-year in February amid strong demand for new housing and construction, the Japan Aluminum Association said. Supplies to domestic and export markets climbed to 168,092 metric tons last month, from 164,237 tons a year earlier, the group said.
• After a week’s lull, U.S. weekly steel output has returned to its upward trend. The latest release from the American Iron and Steel Institute shows that crude output rose 1.5 percent week-over-week to 86.9 million tons per year, 14 percent above November’s nadir. With the latest Platts assessment for U.S. Midwest hot rolled coil (HRC) rising to $975 per ton, up 65 percent from November’s lows, confidence in the economic recovery continues to flow through the sector.
• The Platts iron ore assessment (62 percent Fe) was up $5.50 to $175 per metric ton this week. The recent run up in price from a year-to-date low of $165 per metric ton in the middle of March is being attributed to mills running low on Australian fines inventories and traders holding back cargoes in anticipation of higher prices. Higher Chinese steel prices have also likely supported the rise in spot iron ore prices.
• The latest data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) showed a substantial increase in air traffic volumes despite unrest in the Middle East-North African region curtailing air travel. February 2011 showed year-over-year increases of 6 percent passenger demand and 2.3 percent cargo demand with the political unrest in the Middle East estimated by the IATA to have cut international traffic by about 1 percent.
• The Wall Street Journal reported U.S. corn futures soared to their highest prices in more than two and one-half years as a decline in inventories reported this week continued to drive concerns about supply. The U.S. Department of Agriculture sparked the rally in corn on Thursday when it reported inventories as of March 1 were 6.52 billion bushels, down 15 percent from a year earlier and 2.7 percent below analyst. The tighter-than-expected inventories provided new evidence that high corn prices aren’t slowing demand for dwindling supplies.

Weaknesses

• Shares in South Africa-listed platinum miners tumbled on Monday as neighboring Zimbabwe turned up the heat on foreign mining firms and gave them six months to sell majority stakes to local black investors, according to a release in the Government Gazette on Monday. The release also said companies had 45 days in which to submit details of how they planned to transfer ownership.
• Copper output from Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, decreased 18 percent month-over-month and 6.6 percent year-over-year in February to 394,452 million tones, according to the Chilean statistics institute INE. INE indicated that the fall in production was due to lower ore grades and problems with primary crushing equipment at Codelco’s Gabriela Mistral mine.

Opportunities

• China approved an emergency coal reserve plan which will build up 5 million tons of coal this year, and will ensure the supply to thermal plants if any natural disaster or accident threatens to disrupt the supply. China’s 10 major mining companies, including Shenhua Group and China National Coal Group, have been chosen to build this reserve.
• The Chinese government has announced new targets by which it aims to reduce energy usage and carbon emissions by 4 percent per unit of economy output this year. These cuts are part of China’s plan to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions by 18 percent per unit of GDP over the next five years. China has already completed its five year plan to reduce energy use per unit of economy output by 20 percent since 2005.
• President Obama outlined his plan for reduced dependence on oil this week. In his speech on energy security, President Obama called for reducing dependence on oil and shifting towards renewable sources of energy, especially natural gas and biofuels. President Obama called for a one-third reduction in oil imports by 2025. He especially stressed increasing the usage of vehicles dependent on natural gas rather than oil as fuel. President Obama has already called for a new Clean Energy Standard by which the country aims to achieve 80 percent of its electricity generation from clean energy sources by 2035.
• “Copper will lead a rally in base metals this year as increased consumption in China reduces inventories to higher prices encourage stockpiling,” according to Brook Hunt. “Fundamentally, the market’s tight,” Julian Kettle, head of metals research, said in an interview, predicting that cash copper may average $9700 per ton this year compared with $7543 in 2010. Copper is expected to have a 570,000-ton shortfall this year as China’s demand grows 6 percent, according to Brook Hunt.
• China Securities Journal has said that China is expected to produce 513 million tons of coking coal in 2011, while total consumption is expected to be at 569 million tons.

Threats

• Russia may raise the antitrust limit on ownership in companies involved in extracting the country’s natural resources. Legislation has been prepared that will allow investors to buy as much as 25 percent in a company involved in resource-extraction without anti-trust approval or the permission of a commission on foreign investment, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin told the Cabinet. The current limit without prior approval is 10 percent, he said. The proposal will be sent to lawmakers in Russia’s Duma for approval in April.

Tags: Air Transport Association, Aluminum Association, Aluminum Products, American Iron And Steel Institute, China, Corn Futures, Department Of Agriculture, Export Markets, Hot Rolled Coil, International Air Transport, International Air Transport Association, International Traffic, Iron And Steel, Iron Ore Prices, Metric Ton, oil, Platts, Political Unrest, Russia, Steel Output, Steel Prices, Traffic Volumes, Wall Street Journal
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Growing Opportunity in Agriculture

Saturday, February 12th, 2011

Growing Opportunity in Agriculture

By Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer, U.S. Global Investors

Bushels of corn reached their highest prices in nearly three years this week after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that corn inventories will fall to levels not seen since 1996.

We’ve witnessed nearly a 100 percent surge in the price of corn over the past year as increased demand has been met with diminishing supply. Dry weather conditions due to La Niña in Argentina and other disruptions have shriveled supply despite a near record amount of acreage being planted. Globally, corn consumption has increased 10 percent over the past five years to reach record levels and stock-to-use ratios for corn suggest we’re currently experiencing the tightest global corn market since the late 1970s, according to Macquarie.

This jump is due to increased corn consumption for ethanol and greater demand for feed grain. The USDA estimates that just under 40 percent of U.S. corn production will be consumed for ethanol, up from 31 percent in 2008-2009. China will likely need to import 5 million tons of corn in 2011 in order to meet the country’s booming need for feed grain. In the U.S., an additional 60 million bushels will be used for feed despite a reduction in livestock, according to the Des Moines Register.

Corn is just one part of the food pyramid that is rising. Around the world, prices for wheat, soybeans, cocoa and other grains have jumped in the last 18 months in conjunction with the global recovery. Prices have jumped because demand outstripped supply.

This chart from Potash Corp. shows that grain production has failed to meet consumption in seven of the past 11 years. This is despite producing a significantly larger amount of grain in 2009 than in 2000. Potash Corp. estimates world grain production declined more than 4 percent in 2010. An extreme drought in Russia chopped grain production in the country by 38 percent and 13 percent in neighboring Ukraine.

These tight supply/demand fundamentals reflect the impact of a growing global population and increasing economic strength in emerging markets, Potash says.

As per capita wealth has grown in other countries, there has been a huge jump in demand for grains. This chart shows the amount of bushels consumed as GDP per capita rises.

Much of the rise is due to people consuming more meat as their fortunes rise. To meet this higher protein diet, more chickens, cows and hogs are fed grains and demand skyrockets. You can see that China and India are still in the very early stages of increased consumption.

We think the agricultural space is ripe with opportunity. With global grain inventories relative to demand at multi-year lows and the rising emerging market middle class showing a healthy appetite for more meat and dairy products, demand for increased crop yields should remain strong.

Tags: 60 Million, Bushels, Chief Investment Officer, China, Corn Market, Corn Production, Department Of Agriculture, Des Moines Register, Disruptions, Dry Weather Conditions, Emerging Markets, Ethanol, Extreme Drought, Feed Grain, Food Pyramid, Frank Holmes, Global Recovery, India, Potash Corp, Russia, U S Department, U S Global Investors, Usda Estimates, World Grain Production
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