Stocks Are At Their Most Hated In 27 Years, Maybe It’s Time To Buy Some

Friday, August 3rd, 2012

by Mark Gongloff, Huffington Post

People hate stocks more than at any time in the past quarter century. That could mean it’s a decent time to buy them. Wall Street’s optimism about the stock market is the lowest it has been since at least 1985, according to a research note on Wednesday by Bank of America’s stock strategist Savita Subramanian. The bank measures market agita by tallying how much stock strategists are recommending their clients buy stocks.

In the Bank of America chart at the bottom of this post, you can plainly see that sentiment has absolutely plunged this year. Stock-market strategists are almost always bullish on the stock market, in part because if nobody is buying stocks, then there’s not much point in having stock-market strategists, is there? They’d have to go home and sit on their couches. But today, these same strategists are so spooked by the European debt crisis and the fiscal cliff and whatever else — Obama, or something — that they are recommending clients sell stocks, more than they did even during the financial crisis or the dot-com bubble bursting or after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Typically, you’re going to get some pretty good bargains in stocks when you’ve got so little competition for them, Subramanian writes. She would be one of the dwindling breed of bullish strategists: “Given the contrarian nature of this indicator, we are encouraged by Wall Street’s lack of optimism.” Speaking of contrarian indicators, on Tuesday Pimco founder Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond mutual fund, declared, “The cult of equity is dying.” He warned that carnival barkers promising you annual returns of 6 percent to 7 percent every year in stocks were lying to you, that you should get those people out of your lives immediately. This is the same Bill Gross that predicted interest rates would soar last year (spoiler: they didn’t) and then put his money where his mouth was, taking a big hit to his fund’s performance and his reputation in the process.

Read Complete Article …

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Tags: 9 11 Terrorist Attacks, Agita, Bank Of America, Barkers, Buying Stocks, Couches, Debt Crisis, Decent Time, Financial Crisis, Founder Bill, Good Bargains, Huffington Post, Market Strategists, Obama, Optimism, PIMCO, Quarter Century, Savita Subramanian, Stock Market, Strategist
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China’s Rebalancing Has Begun

Saturday, July 21st, 2012

Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets has some interesting comments via email regarding much needed China rebalancing and a timeframe for a possible Spain exit from euro.

Pettis On Spain Exit …

How will Spanish households react to a default on preferred shares and subordinated bonds, or even a very public discussion about the possibility of such a default?　 I don’t know, but I assume that it will speed up deposit withdrawals from the banking system even more.　 For that reason it continues to be a very good idea to keep an eye on Target 2 balances.　 These serve as a pretty good proxy, I think, for the behavior of depositors.

Things are evolving in Spain exactly as we would expect them to evolve according to the sovereign-debt-crisis handbook.　 Unless we get real fiscal union in Europe, or Germany leaves the euro, or Germany stimulates its economy into running a very large trade deficit, or the euro depreciates by 15-20% against the dollar in the next year – all very unlikely, I think – I really see no reason to doubt that Spain will leave the euro and restructure its debt within the next few years.

Mish Comments on Target 2

Target 2 stands for Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement System. It is a reflection of capital flight from the “Club-Med” countries in Southern Europe (Greece, Spain, and Italy) to banks in Northern Europe.

Please see Target2 and the ELA (Emergency Liquidity Assistance) program; Reader From Europe Asks “Can You Please Explain Target2?” for a more compete description.

There is much misinformation floating around on how Target 2 works, what Germany’s liabilities are, so please click on the above link if you are interested in target 2 balances.

The following chart from PIMCO article TARGET2: A Channel for Europe’s Capital Flight shows the capital flight through March. The problem has accelerated since then, because of fears in Spain and Italy.

Pettis On China Price Deflation…

China’s official GDP growth rate has fallen sharply – on Friday Beijing announced that GDP growth for the second quarter of 2012 was a lower-than-expected 7.6% year on year, the lowest level since 2009 and well below the 8.1% generated in the first quarter. This implies of course that quarterly growth is substantially below 7.6%.　 Industrial production was also much lower than expected, at 9.5% year on year.

In fact China’s real GDP growth may have been even lower than the official numbers.　 This is certainly what electricity consumption numbers, which have been flat, imply, and there have been rumors all year of businesses being advised by local governments to exaggerate their revenue growth numbers in order to provide a better picture of the economy. 　Some economists are arguing that flat electricity consumption is consistent with 7.6% GDP growth because of pressure on Chinese businesses to improve energy efficiency, but this is a little hard to believe.　 That “pressure” has been there almost as long as I have been in China (over ten years) and it would be startling if only now did it have an impact, especially with such a huge impact occurring so suddenly.

Adding to the slow economic growth, the country may be tipping into deflation.　 Last Monday the National Bureau of Statistics released the following inflation data:

In June, the consumer price index (CPI) went up by 2.2 percent year-on-year. The prices grew by 2.2 percent in cities areas and 2.0 percent in rural areas. The food prices went up by 3.8 percent, while the non-food prices increased by 1.4 percent. The prices of consumer goods went up by 2.3 percent and the prices of services grew by 1.9 percent. In the first half of this year, the overall consumer prices were up by 3.3 percent over the same period of previous year.

In June, the month-on-month change of consumer prices was down by 0.6 percent, prices in cities and rural went down by 0.6 and 0.5 percent respectively. The food prices dropped by 1.6 percent, the non-food prices kept at the same level (the amount of change was 0). The prices of consumer goods decreased by 0.9 percent, and the prices of services increased by 0.3 percent.

My very smart former PKU student Chen Long, who follows monetary conditions in China as closely as anyone else I know tells me:

The most interesting thing is that even if CPI remains stable month-on-month, it will turn negative year-on-year in January 2013.　 And if it continues to decline month-on-month at current rates, we could see negative year-on-year CPI as early as August/September.

Unlike some other analysts, in other words, I am not concerned about deflation persisting for long unless the PBoC cuts interest rates much more sharply than any of us expect.　 I know this may sound strange – most analysts believe that cutting interest rates will actually reignite CPI inflation – but remember that the relationship between inflation and interest rates in China is, as I have discussed many times before, not at all like the relationship between the two in the US.　 It works in the opposite way because of the very different structure of Chinese debt and consumption.

Pettis On China Rebalancing…

After many failed attempts, over the past six months we may be seeing for the first time the beginning of China’s urgently needed economic rebalancing, in which China reduces its overreliance on investment in favor of consumption.

Regular readers of my newsletter may be surprised to see me say this.　 For the past four or five years analysts have been earnestly assuring us that the rebalancing process had finally begun, and I had always insisted that it couldn’t have begun yet.

Why?　 Because as I understand it rebalancing is almost arithmetically impossible under conditions of high GDP growth rates and low real interest rates.　 Once the real numbers came in, it always turned out that in fact imbalances had gotten worse, not better.　 Typically many of those too-eager analysts have resorted to insisting that the consumption data are wrong, although even if they are right this does not confirm that rebalancing had taken place since errors in reporting consumption have always been there.

But this time seems different.　 Now for the first time I think maybe the long-awaited Chinese rebalancing may have finally started.

Of course the process will not be easy. With China’s consumption share of GDP at barely more than half the global average, and with the highest investment rate in the world, rebalancing will require determined effort.

How to rebalance

The key to raising the consumption share of growth, as I have discussed many times, is to get household income to rise from its unprecedentedly low share of GDP.　 This requires that among other things China increase wages, revalue the renminbi and, most importantly, reduce the enormous financial repression tax that households implicitly pay to borrowers in the form of artificially low interest rates.

Forcing up the real interest rate is the most important step Beijing can take to redress the domestic imbalances and to reduce wasteful spending.

And this seems to be happening.　 [Yet] Beijing has reduced interest rates twice this year, and reluctant policymakers are under intense pressure to reduce them further.　 [However] The students in my central bank seminar at PKU tell me that there are new rumors about the way the cuts were implemented.　 “Usually it is the PBoC that submits a proposal of rates cut to the State Council,” one of them wrote me recently, “but this time (July 5th) it was the State Council who handed down to the PBoC the decision to cut rates, so that the PBoC was not fully aware of the rates cut before July 5th.”

If my student is right (and this class has an impressive track record), this suggests that monetary easing is being driven by political considerations, not economic ones, which of course isn’t at all a surprise.　 But even with the rate cuts, perhaps demanded by the State Council, with inflation falling much more quickly than interest rates the real return for household depositors has soared in recent months, as has the real cost of borrowing.　 China, in other words, is finally repairing one of its worst distortions.

China bulls, late to understand the unhealthy implications of the distortions that generated so much growth in the past, have finally recognized how urgent the rebalancing is, but they still fail to understand that this cannot happen at high growth rates.　 The problem is mainly one of arithmetic.　 China’s investment growth rate must fall for many years before the household income share of GDP is high enough for consumption to replace investment as the engine of rapid growth.

As China rebalances, in other words, we would expect sharply slowing growth and rapidly rising real interest rates, which is exactly what we are seeing.　 Rather than panicking and demanding that Beijing reverse the process, we should be relieved that Beijing is finally resolving its problems.

As an aside, we need to make two adjustments to the trade surplus in order to understand what is really going on within the balance of payments.　 First, one of the causes of last month’s weak imports has been a sharp decline in commodity purchases.　 I have many times argued that commodity stockpiling artificially lowers China’s trade surplus by converting what should be classified as a capital account outflow into a current account inflow.　 If China is now destocking, then China’s real trade surplus is actually lower than the posted numbers.

Second, we know that wealthy Chinese businessmen have been disinvesting and taking money out of the country at a rising pace since the beginning of 2010.　 One of the ways they can do so, without running afoul of capital restrictions, is by illegally under- or over-invoicing exports and imports.　 This should cause exports to seem lower than they actually are and imports to seem higher.　 The net effect is to reduce the real trade surplus.

Since these two processes, commodity de-stocking and flight capital, work in opposite ways to affect the trade account, it is hard to tell whether China’s real trade surplus is lower or higher than the reported surplus.　 But once de-stocking stops, we should remember that the trade numbers probably conceal capital outflows.

How does all this affect the world?　 In the short term rebalancing may increase the amount of global demand absorbed by China, but over the longer term it should reduce it.　 Rebalancing will inevitably result in falling prices for hard commodities, and so will hurt countries like Australia and Brazil that have gotten fat on Chinese overinvestment. 　Rising Chinese consumption demand over the long term and lower commodity prices, however, are positive for global growth overall, and especially for net commodity importers.　 Slower growth in China, it turns out, is not necessarily bad for the world.　 The key is the evolution of the trade surplus.

There is much more in his email that I wanted to use, but I stretched the bounds of fair use already.

Those wishing to see more can follow Michael Pettis on his blog China Financial Markets which I consider one of the very few “must read” sites.

The above report should appear on his blog shortly, with more details. Thanks Michael!

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Tags: Banking System, Capital Flight, China Gdp, China Price, Club Med, Debt Crisis, Deflation, Depositors, GDP Growth, Gross Settlement, Michael Pettis, Northern Europe, Preferred Shares, Rebalancing, Settlement System, Southern Europe, Sovereign Debt, Subordinated Bonds, Target 2, Trade Deficit
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We Are All Alone

Thursday, July 19th, 2012

by John Nyaradi, Wall Street Sector Selector

Investors are on their own and cannot count on the Federal Reserve to save their portfolios.

Global markets seem to be pricing in a new round of quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve.  Dr. Bernanke and his colleagues will likely comply sometime between now and December.  However, even with more quantitative easing, investors can’t count on the Federal Reserve to rescue the stock market and their portfolios.  We are on our own, and here’s why:

1. Europe’s Debt Crisis

Europe is the crisis that just won’t quit, with Spain, Italy, Greece, ad nauseam , all running out of money. There is simply no solution to this problem as there is simply not enough money in Europe to save Italy and Spain. When the piper finally demands to be paid, no central bank on earth will have the firepower to stop the global financial avalanche that this crisis could trigger.

2. Earnings

Second-quarter earnings season is shaping up as a weak affair with downgrades coming from most every sector. As we all know, stock prices eventually are based on earnings, and no amount of monetary policy, low interest rates or quantitative easing can add profits to corporate bottom lines. Monetary policy can set the stage for, but cannot create, demand.

3. Global Recession

This item is part and parcel of Items #1 and #2. Recession is quickly spreading across Europe. China’s economy, while still growing briskly by developed world standards, is rapidly slowing. The United States limps along with a 1.9% growth rate and recent GDP estimates have been sharply revised downwards. Like antibiotics for a sick person, Dr. Bernanke and his Fed can help but the disease must run its course and the patient must have the physical strength to survive on his own.

4. Diminishing Returns of Quantitative Easing

Each round of quantitative easing has smaller impact and brings greater risks for the global economy. Last week’s interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, the People’s Bank of China and more quantitative easing from the Bank of England were largely ignored by global markets which, in the “good old days,” would have rallied hard on this sort of same-day global intervention.  Like antibiotics fighting a virus, quantitative easing is losing its effect as the virus grows immune and mutates to offset continued attacks.

5. The Dreaded Fiscal Cliff

Dr. Bernanke has made it quite clear in recent testimony to Congress that the “fiscal cliff” coming up in December is too big for him to manage and that it needs to be resolved to avoid a significant economic shock. The hit to GDP from the fiscal cliff would likely trigger another recession in the United States (See Item #3)

ETF strategies for difficult days

So what are we supposed to do as we try to protect capital, prepare for retirement and secure our financial futures? Several options come to mind:

A. Cash: Cash is king, particularly in deflationary, depression-like environments. The U.S. dollar, represented by PowerShares DB Bullish Dollar ETF (NYSEARCA:UUP) is up some 5% since early May as capital seeks the perceived safety of the U.S. dollar. Cash doesn’t have to be U.S. dollars, either, as Swiss francs have been on a roll, along with the Japanese yen (NYSEARCA:FXY)

B. U.S. Treasury Bonds: Like the dollar, the U.S. is still seen as the safest harbor in an uncertain world and U.S. Treasuries are near record low yields and high prices as money flocks to the perceived safety of Uncle Sam. The biggest moves will probably come in the long end of the curve and iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TLT) is up some 14% since early April. iShares Barclays 7-10 Year ETF (NYSEARCA:IEF) has gained more than 5% in the same time frame. One day, the “short” bond trade will be the position of a lifetime, but that day does not look like today.

So now it’s summertime, but the living is not likely to be easy, at least for awhile. (apologies to George and Ira Gershwin, “Porgy and Bess”)   We can’t count on Dr. Bernanke and his Federal Reserve to save us from what lies ahead but we can use the power and versatility of exchange traded funds to navigate through these challenging times.  We are all alone.

Get Wall Street Sector Selector’s Free Stock Market Warning Indicator!

Disclosure: Wall Street Sector Selector actively trades a wide range of exchange traded funds and positions can change at any time. Wall Street Sector Selector holds a position in (TLT)

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Tags: Ad Nauseam, Bernanke, Bottom Lines, Debt Crisis, Diminishing Returns, Downgrades, Earnings Season, Enough Money, Firepower, Gdp Estimates, Global Economy, Global Markets, Global Recession, Interest Rate Cuts, Italy Greece, Low Interest Rates, Physical Strength, Second Quarter Earnings, Sick Person, Stock Prices
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Muddling Through…But for How Long? (Sonders)

Sunday, July 15th, 2012

July 13, 2012

by Liz Ann Sonders, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.,
and Brad Sorensen, CFA, Director of Market and Sector Analysis, Schwab Center for Financial Research
and Michelle Gibley, CFA, Director of International Research, Schwab Center for Financial Research

Key Points

• Equity markets rebounded from their lows, but the move has been less than enthusiastic and convincing. Earnings season is upon us and corporate commentary and outlooks may take the focus away from the macro world—at least for a time.
• Muddling through is the popular phrase on the Street for what’s occurring in the US economy. But how long before a break is made one way or the other—both in the economy and the markets?
• Any progress made at the most recent European Union (EU) Summit appears to have been short-lived and any credible long-term solutions remain illusive. Additionally, Chinese growth continues to slow and concerns over a “hard landing” are growing.

Muddling through. Not the most inspiring phrase and we must admit that we are already tired of hearing it, even as we use it ourselves. But it appears to be the best description of what’s occurring in so much of the world currently. In Europe, policymakers continue to take one step forward, followed relatively quickly by one step back; avoiding a complete collapse, but really coming no closer to an actual resolution to their debt crisis and economic problems—muddling through. In China, growth has slowed and policymakers have been slow to respond and appear willing to accept a lower pace of improvement in exchange for deflating a real estate bubble and containing inflation—muddling through. And in the United States, stocks appear to be largely trading in a range, with neither the bulls nor the bears able to grab the reins and establish a trend; while economic data is mushy, but not overtly negative—muddling through.

The question is how long before the muddling stops and a sustainable direction is established? Unfortunately, while we believe a day of reckoning is drawing nearer and the ability of policymakers to use slight of hand to “fool” the markets into thinking solutions may be forthcoming is growing thin; it appears to still be at least a few months away, and the largely sideways action in stocks is likely to persist.

That doesn’t mean that investors who need to add to their equity exposure should wait until a definitive trend is established. By that time, much of the move will likely be passed and there is always the possibility of unforeseen events impacting the markets to a substantial degree—the so-called fat tail scenarios discussed in the last Schwab Market Perspective. For investors that have a time horizon of five years or longer, we continue to believe equities are attractive here. Valuations appear reasonable, but there are ample near-term hurdles, including the “fiscal cliff,” China’s growth, the US slowdown and the ongoing eurozone debt crisis. If the expectations hurdles have been set low enough , we could see some sharp rallies unfold among riskier asset classes, but there remain negative tail risks as well, and volatility and uncertainty are not likely going away in the near-term.

As we head into the peak of second quarter earnings season, corporations have the spotlight as the macro picture has entered a quieter zone. Judging by the elevated preannouncement ratio for the quarter, we expect to hear uncertainty and caution in the outlooks, as tax policy remains uncertain, the ultimate outcome in Europe continues to be illusive and China’s growth is slowing. With many companies having preemptively announced negative developments with their second quarter performance, expectations have been lowered, which would traditionally set up the possibility of upside surprises. However, we’re concerned that there may be further disappointments to come as the global economy continues to weaken. Regardless, it’s hard to imagine the corporate picture driving action for long as macro developments will likely again take hold as fall approaches.

Recession increasingly likely?

As mentioned above, the US economy appears to be muddling through, but concerns over a return to a recession have grown. Chief among the disappointing reports was the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Index, which came in at 49.7, down from 53.5 and below the 50 level that denotes the dividing line between an expanding or contracting manufacturing sector. This was the lowest reading since July of 2009, but it’s important to note that the index traditionally doesn’t start to indicate recession for the broader economy until it drops below 44.

ISM indicates softness but no recession-yet

Source: FactSet, Institute for Supply Management. As of July 6, 2012.

More concerning was the new orders component-the more forward-looking part of the report-collapsing by 12.3 points, which was its biggest monthly drop since October 2001.

New orders are more concerning

Source: FactSet, Institute for Supply Management. As of July 6, 2012.

However, the service side of the ledger was a bit more positive. Although weakening, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index remained above 50 at 52.1.

Additionally, the labor market continues to disappoint, although we do continue to see job additions. The ADP Employment report surprised on the upside at 176,000 new jobs for June but the broader government labor report was again disappointing, as only 80,000 new jobs were added. In contrast to the previous month, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at a still-elevated 8.2%. Remember, the unemployment rate is one of the most lagging of all economic indicators, and we have recently seen a positive reversal in unemployment claims, a leading economic indicator.

There are some automatic stabilizers that can help to stimulate economic growth when it slows. One that has been working quite well lately is the reduction in oil prices as demand growth has slowed, helping to put more money in consumers’ pockets. Additionally, other commodity costs have eased as well, although there is growing concern that the heat wave hitting much of the country is causing corn crop problems which has resulted in elevated corn prices. With corn used in so many food items, as well as in ethanol and other products, it is something we are keeping an eye on moving forward.

Government…muddling is thy name!

It’s difficult to imagine employers gaining a lot of confidence and willing to take additional risk by hiring a lot of new workers when they have so much uncertainty surrounding taxes, regulations and ongoing healthcare costs…exacerbated by the looming fiscal cliff. And while politicians on both sides of the aisle appear to recognize the problems this uncertainty is causing, definitive action still appears unlikely. At this point, we believe the most likely scenario is that the lame duck Congress following the elections will pass a three-to-six month extension of current policy so the new Congress can deal with it in 2013—thus avoiding the worst case scenario, but still leaving it hanging out there. One important note, however, due to the WARN Act, government contractors have to preannounce potential job cuts ahead of time. So if we still don’t have a deal before the election, we will likely have multiple mass layoff announcements made, especially from defense contractors, which could have a negative drag on sentiment.

Europe struggles to make progress

Speaking of a negative drag on sentiment, European policymakers have taken squabbling to an art form. More than two years into the sovereign debt crisis, progress remains disappointingly slow. Yet another European summit to curb the sovereign debt crisis has come and gone, and despite unveiling another “grand plan,” doubts remain, and muddling along continues.

The aim for the recent summit was to break the vicious cycle between weak peripheral countries and their weak banks. Low expectations were exceeded, but market relief was short-lived amid lack of details and still-missing components that are likely needed to quell the crisis. Meanwhile, each successive “grand plan” has had a shorter relief rally, as market participants are becoming less patient, while policymakers appear to lack urgency.

Market relief remains tenuous

Source: FactSet, iBoxx. As of July 10, 2012.

Spain remains a concern because its banking system needs capital, estimated at 37 billion euros by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and 51-62 billion euros in stress tests conducted by consultants hired by the Spanish government. A separate audit on an individual bank-by-bank basis is due in late July.

The problem is the source of capital infusions for Spain’s banks:

• If banks are bailed out by the Spanish government, the Spanish government itself may need a bailout.
• One outcome of June’s summit potentially allows bailout funds to directly recapitalize banks. However, common eurozone-wide bank supervision is required first, and this is a complicated process that may not happen until the second half of 2013.
• The latest “plan du jour,” is to give Spanish banks 30 billion euros in emergency funding without expanding Spain’s government balance sheet. However, this stop-gap plan will not bolster confidence definitely in our opinion, as it not large or quick enough and lending nations remain resistant.

Incompatible cultures and politics hamper agreement on broad solutions and time has been wasted. As the debt crisis has become a crisis of confidence, each successive failure increases the risk that market confidence cannot be restored – once confidence is lost, it is difficult to gain back. From a long-term perspective, a break up of the euro remains an increasing possibility, which could improve the longer-term outlook, but would likely be accompanied by extreme volatility at the time of occurrence.

However, we don’t believe Europe will achieve either full union or break-up in the near-term, resulting in muddling through as the most likely scenario. As such, the rollercoaster loop of sentiment is likely to remain in place, and we continue to believe European stocks will be under-performers.

Global synchronized slowdown

The economic slowdown has gradually spread from Europe in the fall of 2011, to China in the first quarter of 2012, and now the United States appears to be joining. As a result, the JPMorgan Global Composite Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) shows global economic growth falling perilously close to contraction territory.

Global economy losing steam

Source: FactSet, Bloomberg. As of July 10, 2012.

A look under the hood is even more concerning, as the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI has fallen to 48.9. The service economy has been a source of relative strength, but manufacturing has dropped, and manufacturing tends to lead economic trends, as it is more tied to the business cycle. Additionally, the new orders component of global PMIs dropped significantly in June, evident not only in the US ISM report mentioned earlier, but even China cited the United States as a new sign of weakness in June. Lastly, with inventories falling at a slower pace than orders globally, the implication is that an inventory destocking cycle could be upon us, which could result in lower economic activity in the future.

Is there a hard landing in China?

The gloomy sentiment stick appears to have been handed off from Europe, where slow growth appears to be “accepted” by markets, to China. The definition of a hard landing in China is debatable. We think of it as roughly a 3% decline from the potential growth rate of the economy, similar to the decline to zero growth in the United States. This would equate to roughly a 6% level for a hard landing in China, in our opinion.

If China’s gross domestic product (GDP) is still growing more than the 6%, what’s the fuss? We want to redirect the conversation away from “China hard landing” to the “stall speed” concept, where growth slows enough to become self-reinforcing. While an imprecise science, particularly in an immature economy, it feels to us like we are hovering around stall speed in China, much like we are in the United States.

We believe more fiscal stimulus needs to begin quickly to stave off the economic downturn in China. China’s response has been underwhelming thus far, either because growth hasn’t fallen enough, aging demographics have resulted in slower tolerable growth, the desire to not repeat prior mistakes and bubbles, or a desire to prudently allow steam to come out of the economy as it transitions to a consumer-based economy. Regardless, slower growth is likely to be the new normal for the Chinese economy in our view, a concept with which markets are still grappling.

China’s growth has global stock investment implications. Unrelated to economic growth, we believe the Chinese stock market has become less attractive over the intermediate term due to profit-reducing bank reforms, and the large weight of the financial sector in Chinese indexes.

However, we are still believers in the growth story of emerging markets (EM) as a group relative to developed markets. A more forceful fiscal stimulus in China has the ability to stimulate economic growth and stock performance in many Asian nations, which constitute the largest portion of the EM universe.

While a lot of negativity appears to be priced into EM stocks, the impact of the global slowdown is still being priced into developed market stocks, where earnings misses and negative stock reactions indicate that the extent of the weakness may not yet be priced in.

Lastly, we’d be remiss if we didn’t mention nuggets of good news, including inflation falling globally, a change in attitude from austerity to growth, and global central bank easings. Our base case is a global slowdown, not a crash, and investment opportunities remain. Read more international research at www.schwab.com/oninternational.

Important Disclosures

The MSCI EAFE® Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States and Canada. As of May 27, 2010, the MSCI EAFE Index consisted of the following 22 developed market country indexes: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index^SM is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets. As of May 27, 2010, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index consisted of the following 21 emerging-market country indexes: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey.

The S&P 500® index is an index of widely traded stocks.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses and cannot be invested in directly.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing in sectors may involve a greater degree of risk than investments with broader diversification.

International investments are subject to additional risks such as currency fluctuations, political instability and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing in emerging markets can accentuate these risks.

The information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. This report is for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation or a recommendation that any particular investor should purchase or sell any particular security. Schwab does not assess the suitability or the potential value of any particular investment. All expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice.

The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

Tags: BRICs, Charles Schwab, Chief Investment Strategist, Chinese Growth, Collapse, Debt Crisis, Earnings Season, Economic Data, Economic Problems, European Union, inflation, Liz Ann, Long Term Solutions, Lows, Macro World, Outlooks, Real Estate Bubble, Reins, Research Key, Sector Analysis, Senior Vice President
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4 Reasons to Like China

Thursday, July 12th, 2012

Last month, in my Investment Directions monthly commentary, I predicted that we’d see further stimulus from China this yearas officials try to keep Chinese growth at a respectable rate ahead of a fall 2012 leadership transition.

And as I suggested would happen, the Chinese central bank last week announced its second surprise rate cut within a month. The action from the central bank was an acknowledgement that the world’s second largest economy is slowing. In the first quarter, China’s growth decelerated to 8.1% year over year, the slowest pace since the summer of 2009 as a slowing United States and ongoing European sovereign debt crisis took a toll on Chinese exports.

Still, despite China’s economic slowdown, I continue to hold an overweight view of Chinese equities for the following four reasons:

1.)    Valuations: Chinese stocks are selling at a significant discount to both other Asian emerging market countries and to their own history, especially when you consider that Chinese inflation is decelerating. In addition, current discounted valuations appear to be already reflecting the risk of a hard landing, which I don’t believe is the most likely scenario for China.

2.)    Growth Expectations: While China is experiencing a slowdown, it’s important to put China’s growth in perspective. I expect second quarter Chinese growth to come in around 8%, a level consistent with a soft landing scenario, and not anywhere near the United States’ truly slow 2% growth. In addition, the preponderance of evidence – and the few bright spots among weak recent economic data — still suggest that China can engineer a soft landing and even if China ends up growing at 7% to 7.5% next quarter, Chinese equities still look cheap.

3.)    Economic Policy: That China lowered interest rates twice within a month suggests that Beijing is refocusing on, and is willing to go the distance to stabilize, growth. In fact, I continue to expect more stimulus from China as it tries to ensure a smooth upcoming leadership transfer and as cooling inflation in the country gives the government more room to focus on growth. In addition, the gradual liberalization of the financial industry is also a plus for long-term growth.

4.)    Relatively Low Risk: Based on my team’s analysis, China is not one of the 15 riskiest markets. In addition, China enjoys a relatively stable currency, which reduces the volatility of its USD returns.

To be sure, Chinese equities, along with other risky assets, are still vulnerable to the fortunes of the global economy, and an exogenous shock, such as a worsening eurozone crisis, could certainly knock China off of its trajectory. But in the absence of such an event, most evidence suggests that China can engineer a soft landing and its outlook seems more positive than investors may be discounting. I prefer to access Chinese equities through the iShares MSCI China Index Fund (NYSEARCA: MCHI) and the iShares MSCI China Small Cap Index Fund (NYSEARCA: ECNS).

Source: Bloomberg

Russ Koesterich, CFA is the iShares Global Chief Investment Strategist and a regular contributor to the iShares Blog.  You can find more of his posts here.

In addition to the normal risks associated with investing, international investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from economic or political instability in other nations. Emerging markets involve heightened risks related to the same factors as well as increased volatility and lower trading volume. Securities focusing on a single country and investments in smaller companies may be subject to higher volatility.

Tags: Acknowledgement, Chinese Central Bank, Chinese Exports, Chinese Growth, Chinese Stocks, Debt Crisis, Economic Data, economic policy, Economic Slowdown, Emerging Market Countries, First Quarter, Growth Expectations, inflation, Investment Directions, Leadership Transition, Preponderance Of Evidence, Sovereign Debt, Stimulus, Surprise Rate, Valuations
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Out-of-Sync Markets Create Long-Term Opportunities

Monday, July 9th, 2012

Principal and Portfolio Manager Francis “Frank” Gannon provides thoughts regarding the economy, the markets and small-cap investing. Frank, a former panelist on Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street, has 19 years of investment management experience and joined our team in 2006.

“I know what is around the corner—I just don’t know where the corner is…”*

- Kevin Keegan, Former International Footballer and former manager of the England National Football Team

Sentiment once again shifted dramatically in the second quarter of 2012, just as it did in 2011 and 2010. Now-familiar concerns over contagion from the ongoing sovereign debt crisis/fiscal crisis/recession across Europe, coupled with fears of decelerating growth in China and a fragile economic recovery in the United States, pressured the equity markets.

Even the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), at its most recent meeting in June, added to the air of uncertainty, as they lowered their expectations for economic growth and raised the forecast for the unemployment rate. At the same time, lack of clarity regarding fiscal policy and the coming “fiscal cliff” in January 2013 is building, further weighing on domestic economic activity and the markets.

After gaining more than 12% in the first quarter of 2012, the Russell 2000 Index lost 3.47% in the second quarter and was up 8.53% year-to-date through June 30, 2012. Interestingly, the small-cap Russell 2000 Index will soon mark the five-year anniversary of its pre-financial crisis peak, July 13, 2007. From this peak through the end of 2012′s second quarter, the Russell 2000 gained 0.04%.

To be sure, it has been an eventful five years for equities, the global economy, and geopolitics. We live in a world that craves certainty, yet the range of possible outcomes in today’s world feels infinite. To that concern, we are often asked how in today’s uncertain environment we marry the various top-down macro views and our bottom-up stock picking approach.

In today’s interconnected world, where random, unpredictable events across the globe are being priced into the markets at lightning speed, one’s ability to react is paramount to achieving consistent, long-term results. Our discipline of responding rationally without making predictions is built for just this type of environment.

Predicting what will be the next macro drivers of the markets has long been a favorite pastime for many strategists, fund managers, and market commentators alike. It is not ours. Our expertise is in smaller-company investing. We typically have little if anything to say about the economy in general and even less to say about large-scale, macro trends.

That being said, we are in the business of responding rationally to opportunities as they are created and being prepared to do so when they occur. In today’s interconnected world, where random, unpredictable events across the globe are being priced into the markets at lightning speed, one’s ability to react is paramount to achieving consistent, long-term results. Our discipline of responding rationally without making predictions is built for just this type of environment.

We once again find ourselves in another out of sync moment, where those same daily macro headlines are creating long-term micro opportunities. Not surprisingly, since the Russell 2000′s most recent peak in March the most defensive areas of the market have performed best while those more economically sensitive areas have dramatically underperformed. It is the same performance pattern we have witnessed during the market’s corrective phases over the last two years.

From our perspective, however, those defensive areas of the market (consumer staples, utilities, and REITs) remain expensive. At the same time, many of the economically sensitive areas of the market that have been hit the hardest are fraught with opportunity. Ironically, lost among the economic headlines and fear of owning these cyclical businesses are the quality standards we tend to focus on. For the moment, economic sensitivity is trumping quality, a byproduct of our macro-driven world.

Stay tuned…
FDG

*A favorite quotation of mine from a presentation courtesy of Dylan Grice, global strategist for Societé Generale, entitled “Macro & the Margin of Safety” that was delivered to the Value Intelligence Conference 2012, summing up the futility of macro investing.

Important Disclosure Information
Francis Gannon is a Portfolio Manager of Royce & Associates LLC. Mr. Gannon’s thoughts in this essay concerning the stock market are solely his own and, of course, there can be no assurance with regard to future market movements. No assurance can be given that the past performance trends as outlined above, will continue in the future. The Russell 2000 is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of domestic small-cap stocks. It measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest publicly traded U.S. companies in the Russell 3000 index.

Tags: Contagion, Debt Crisis, England National Football Team, Federal Open Market Committee, Fiscal Crisis, Fiscal Policy, Fomc, Footballer, Frank Gannon, Global Economy, Kevin Keegan, Louis Rukeyser, Macro Views, national football team, Open Market Committee, Portfolio Manager, Russell 2000 Index, Small Cap, Sovereign Debt, Term Opportunities, Unemployment Rate
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Bill Gross: Investment Outlook (July 2012)

Thursday, July 5th, 2012

Investment Outlook, July 2012

What’s In A Name?

by William H. Gross, PIMCO

• Not only banks and insurance companies but sovereign nations as well cannot all be counted on to guarantee a return of principal, let alone a return on investment.
• An authentic debt crisis – which the world is now experiencing – can only be ultimately cured in two ways: 1) default on it, or 2) print more money in order to inflate it away.
• There are very few clean dirty shirts in this world. Timing in investment markets is critical and at the moment the U.S. is considered to be the cleanest.

What’s in a name? I wish I’d asked my parents how they came up with mine, because I’ve never really been a good “Bill.” That is not to say that I’m uncomfortable in my own skin – I usually am – but I’ve never really been at ease with the name. Perhaps it’s genetic because the discomfort seems to run in the family. Who could blame my father I suppose for insisting on “Dutch” as opposed to Sewell Gross the IV! Imagine: a nameological tyranny of four successive Sewells! It ended with him, but then there was my brother Craig who insisted on Chip and my sister Lynn who in her fifties changed her name to Lyn. At least I didn’t have to worry about calling her by the wrong name, although I have boo-booed on birthday cards. In any case, we Grosses seem to dislike our names.

Having kids, however, allowed me to set the record straight or at least mutate those genes which kept rejecting given names that seemed appropriate to parents, but not to Gross progeny. My first attempt at cracking the code came with my first son, Jeff. I liked “Jeff.” It was short, masculine and was the first name of a Duke basketball star in the 1960s. I’d be a better Jeff than a Bill. Next up was Jennifer, whose name came from a Donovan number one hit song and then there was Nick. Nick was actually Sue’s favorite name, but I easily conceded. Who couldn’t like Nick? Saint Nick, just in the Nick of time, Nick, Nick, Nick. I would’ve been a good Nick.

Now at 68, however, I’ve run out of naming opportunities which has caused me to begin to nitpick my last name. I mean there are Smith(s) because their occupational heritage was presumably a craftsman, and Johnson(s) who were the sons of John, but Gross? What’s a Gross? A Gross, as it turns out, is twelve dozen or 144. Numerology is not my bag, but the frequency of this number’s occurrence is more than eerie. My first home was on 14401 La Mancha and my home for the last 25 years has been 144 Seabring Way. I was born in 1944, the 144 in this case being necessarily interrupted by a centurion digit. In addition, while my birthdate was 4/13 instead of 4/14, my mother always informed me as mothers do, that I was born at 9:36 p.m. which I only recently calculated to be 144 minutes short of the 4/14/44 date. Very strange.

Gross also means “big” in German and was adopted by the English with an E on the end as in Grosse Point, Michigan. Neither of those connections disturbs me, nor does the expression “how gross.” I always sort of shrugged and told myself to get over it. What bothers me most about it though is that I keep getting advertising pamphlets in the mail from Jewish mausoleums. Seems like half the Grosses in the world are Christian and half are Jewish. The Christians don’t seem to be concerned about my hereafter, but the followers of the Jewish faith do. For that I’m thankful, but I’d prefer not to be reminded of my impending doom, so at 68 I wish I wasn’t a Gross. Not a Bill, not a Gross – go figure. What’s in a name?

7% returns out of reach
Mayor Michael Bloomberg in a February trip to his state capital to discuss pension funding told a legislator that “if I can give you one piece of financial advice, it’s: If somebody offers you a guaranteed 7% on your money for the rest of your life, you take it and just make sure the guy’s name isn’t Madoff.” So names, it seems are important to others outside the Gross family and I probably should hold off changing the “Bill” and even the “Gross” if only because it’s not Madoff. That 7% return though – I’m not sure it’s possible in this era of the New Normal where negative real rates on Treasuries and its incumbent financial repression dominate bond and asset markets alike. Aside from the 7% return expectation however – which many pension funds and liability structures assume at a bare minimum – what struck me about the Mayor’s comment was the assumption that there were legitimate guarantors of investment returns throughout the world. Even assuming that Madoff and his Ponzi lookalikes are now under lock and key, recent events have shown that not only banks and insurance companies with their presumed “money good” guarantees, but sovereign nations as well cannot all be counted on to guarantee a return of principal, let alone a return on investment that comes anywhere close to matching 7% in nominal terms. What does Greece tell us if not that money, credit and financial investments dependent on ever expanding growth of credit are sometimes subject to buzz cut defaults with scalp level clippers, as opposed to a trimming of the bangs with haute couture scissors. 7%? Greek, Spanish and almost all non-Germanic Euroland bond investors would be happy for much less – they’d request a modern day Will Rogers haircut, which was defined in the 1930s when he said, “I’m more concerned about the return of my money than the return on my money.” Trillions of global investment dollars, Euros and Yen would settle for just that if they could only reclaim their prior investments at par, and then silently deposit them in a mattress for safekeeping.

Debt crisis can’t be cured with more debt
What global investors, fixated on historical cyclical trends as opposed to secular delevering dynamics fail to appreciate is that economies and their financial markets historically have taken several decades as opposed to several years to renormalize once the fatal grip of too much debt wreaks havoc on the assumed perpetuity of capitalism’s prosperity machine. Can a debt crisis be cured with more debt? Yes, if initial debt levels are reasonable and central banks are able to rejuvenate the delicate dance between debtor and creditor – each believing that they are getting a good deal in terms of risk, reward and the deployment of funds between now and some future maturity. But when debt as a percentage of GDP, or debt service as a percentage of household income, or the appropriateness of the term structure (short vs. long) on both borrower and lender balance sheets becomes imbalanced, then the well-oiled capitalistic engine may sputter and in some cases – as in Greece – freeze up. That’s when a debt crisis can’t be cured with more debt, be it in the form of QEs or LTROs, or implicit firewalls created or to be created by Eurobonds, ESMs, the IMF or any other agency that presumably is money good. The fact is that the current burden of global debt is only being lightly alleviated via zero-bound interest rates. None of it, other than Greek PSI or minor amounts of private U.S. mortgage debt has been extinguished over the post-Lehman era; it has only been transferred from one pocket to another. Banks, insurance companies and mutual funds have passed the peripheral Old Maid from their hands to that of the ECB, or to Spanish and Italian banks, and ultimately on to the German core. Does it matter that Greece decides to stay with the Euro or that the Southern peripherals move towards austerity, or that the U.S. in November decides to go Red or Blue? Not much. Solutions for real growth matter only at the margin. An authentic debt crisis – which the world is now experiencing – can only be ultimately cured in two ways: 1) default on it, or 2) print more money in order to inflate it away. Both 1 and 2 are poison for bond and stock holders, which is why 7% returns – guaranteed or not – are so comical.

In search of those mythical returns, investors have shifted both bond and equity funds into what we at PIMCO call the “cleanest dirty shirt” countries. Not content to wallow in the mud of the southern Euroland PIGS despite their (coincidentally) 7% yields, investors have preferred 0% 2-year German Schatz or almost as ridiculous 0% 30-year U.K. linkers under the assumption that their principal at least will be “guaranteed.” For 30 years though, U.K. investors will guarantee themselves a return at or below their future purchasing power. Mayor Bloomberg it seems has a Sophie’s Choice – 7% with debt–laden, mud-caked Spanish polo shirts or 0% with bleached but still stained knock-offs. His Honor – and all other investors – must decide if as Shakespeare posed “a rose is a rose by any other name.” Is a clean dirty shirt a dirty shirt by another name? And if not, in the midst of a global debt crisis can there actually be such a thing as a clean dirty shirt that justifies near 0% yields? The fit, it seems, may be a tad tight the closer bonds get to zero.

Is the U.S. shirt really clean?
This observer must obviously admit – as do rating services – that some countries are better than others. Those with initial debt conditions that don’t exceed historical norms, those that can print and issue debt in their own currencies, those that have reasonable trade balances, those that emphasize the sanctity of property rights, those that dominate the global military stage, those with innovation and education, those…. I could go on. Many of the above conditions point investors to the ultimate “safe haven,” the cleanest of the dirty shirts, the champion of champions, rose of all roses – the United States. I will not dispute it, market movements have confirmed it and my own experience in 2011 is a testament to it. Don’t underweight Uncle Sam in a debt crisis. Money seeking a safe haven will find it in America’s deep and liquid (almost Aaa rated) bond and equity markets.

Yet there may come a time when the king adorned in his clean dirty shirt may be redressed or perhaps undressed to reveal he has no clothes – just like Greece – just like many or most of the rest of them. The chart below shows America’s debt/GDP which at close to 100% is not near-term threatening, but if continued upward on trend could be absolutely debilitating. 7-8% annual deficits while alleviated and tempered by the financing of them with negative real interest rates, promise to raise that 100% number to 125% within five years if nothing is done. Yet as stunning and as Greek-like as that percentage is, it comes nowhere close to the actual liabilities of the U.S. government that represent promises nearly as sacrosanct as the interest and principal on a 30-year Treasury. Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid liabilities when measured on the same present value basis as our current $15 trillion of outstanding debt, total four times as much: $66 trillion according to unbiased, non-political, Office of Management and Budget (OMB) estimates of future liabilities. In addition, studies estimated the unfunded liabilities of state and local governments at an additional $38 trillion. All together they would accelerate the line in chart 1 to 800% of GDP. And we look down on the Greeks?

Mayor Bloomberg was on to something when he told Albany legislators to look for anyone or any firm with a name other than Madoff to seek out their vaunted 7%. What he didn’t say is that our U.S. President – past, present and future – heads a financing scheme that has similar characteristics. Think of the U.S. balance sheet with its $66 trillion dollars of liabilities as one giant PIK bond – Payment In Kind. The corporate bond market has PIKs although they tend to be junk market rated. Instead of paying actual current interest they promise to pay future bills with more and more bonds – payment in kind. That’s what Social Security ($8 trillion) is; that’s what Medicare is ($23 trillion); and that’s essentially what Medicaid is ($35 trillion) although the latter is appropriated annually and therefore disguised as an actual debt. U.S. Treasuries are one giant PIK bond that can only partially be paid off under assumptions of Old Normal 3% real growth rates, or check writing by the Federal Reserve that inflates away the debt and a bondholder’s real principal at the same time.

So Mr. Mayor, I would tell investors this: There are very few clean dirty shirts in this world. Timing in investment markets is critical and at the moment the U.S. is considered to be the cleanest. That’s why PIMCO owns them. But things change. A blossoming rose wilts over time. A good name can be slandered, a great opportunity to change fiscal direction squandered within a few short years. This debt crisis should be considered global as opposed to regional, and investors should recognize that clean dirty shirts are not forever thus. Over time, they may have to change their name, their rating, or at least their reputation as a clothes horse.

William H. Gross
Managing Director

All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investing in the bond market is subject to certain risks including market, interest-rate, issuer, credit, and inflation risk; investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed. Equities may decline in value due to both real and perceived general market, economic, and industry conditions. Sovereign securities are generally backed by the issuing government, obligations of U.S. Government agencies and authorities are supported by varying degrees but are generally not backed by the full faith of the U.S. Government; portfolios that invest in such securities are not guaranteed and will fluctuate in value. The credit quality of a particular security or group of securities does not ensure the stability or safety of an overall portfolio. The Quality ratings of individual issues/issuers are provided to indicate the credit worthiness of such issues/issuer and generally range from AAA, Aaa, or AAA (highest) to D, C, or D (lowest) for S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch respectively.

This material contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of PIMCO and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Pacific Investment Management Company LLC.

Copyright © 2012, PIMCO

Tags: Basketball Star, Bill Gross, Birthday Cards, Brother Craig, Cracking The Code, Debt Crisis, Dirty Shirts, Duke Basketball, Gross Investment, Investment Markets, Investment Outlook, Nick Nick, Nick Of Time, Own Skin, Return On Investment, Saint Nick, Sewell, Sewells, Sister Lynn, Sovereign Nations, Time Nick, William H Gross
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U.S. Equity Strategy: A Mid Year Update

Thursday, July 5th, 2012

prepared by Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT, Senior Vice President, U.S. Equity Research,
TD Waterhouse, Portfolio Advice and Investment Research

Mid-Year Update

- In the “risk-off” environment seen for much of Q2, small caps and technology were hit the hardest, with the Russell 2000 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index down 3.83% and 5.06%, respectively. The defensive telecommunications, utilities, and consumer staples sectors outperformed, gaining, 12.63%, 5.46%, and 2.11%, respectively. The cyclical sectors underperformed with financials down 7.27%, energy off 6.53%, and information technology declining 6.96%. While Q2 was a more difficult trading environment than Q1, it is important to note that the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) is still up 8.31% year to date.

- Europe continues to be the most significant risk to the global markets, with news from the region largely driving the volatile day-to-day price action. Greece, with its potential to default (again) on its debt and possible exit from the eurozone, remains front and centre. However, the focus is quickly turning to Spain, whose economy at US$1.4 trillion is nearly 5 times larger than that of Greece.

- The key question is whether the eurozone debt crisis will escalate further, and push the global economy into a recession. Unfortunately the problems are largely political, making it difficult to predict one way or the other. All of this uncertainty bears a defensive posture at this time.

- Looking at simple P/E ratios, equity valuations look quite reasonable, and even cheap in certain areas of the market. However, with the prospect of slowing earnings and increasing global risks, we believe stocks will be hard pressed to see any significant P/E expansion, and therefore maintain our S&P 500 year-end price target range of 1,290-1,340, which assumes a year-end P/E target range of 13- 13.5x.

- Stepping back from the day-to-day market gyrations, we believe the S&P 500 will continue to trade range-bound between 1,200 and 1,400 through the summer, as the markets weigh the negatives of the European debt issues and slowing growth, with the positives of still healthy corporate earnings, reasonable valuations and supportive monetary policies.

- With the heightened risks we recently

- upgraded consumer staples to overweight from market weight.
- We continue to recommend an overweight in health care.
- Our sole cyclical overweight position is the information technology sector.
- The energy, utilities, telecommunications and industrials sectors remain at market weight.
- Finally, we maintain our underweight recommendation for the financials and consumer discretionary sector.

The complete report is available for reading or download in the slidedeck or at the link below:

US Equity Strategy Q2 12

Tags: Consumer Staples, Debt Crisis, Defensive Posture, Economy Into A Recession, Equity Research, Equity Strategy, Eurozone, Global Economy, Global Markets, Global Risks, Investment Research, Market Gyrations, Nasdaq Composite Index, Portfolio Advice, Price Target, Russell 2000 Index, Senior Vice President, Small Caps, Target Range, Td Waterhouse
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Mark Carney Kicks the Can

Sunday, June 10th, 2012

Submitted by James Miller of the Ludwig von Mises Institute of Canada

Mark Carney Kicks The Can

Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney takes a lot of cues from his U.S. equivalent and fellow central banker Ben Bernanke.  Both took interest rates to anorexic levels in light of the financial crisis in 2008.  Both used their positions of power as stewards of the people’s money to bail out the big banks.  Both take credit for the gains of their respective stock markets and for guiding their economies through the global recession.  Both are forever on a quest to rid of the world of the boogeyman of deflation.

And both are sewing the seeds of their own destruction by keeping interest rates artificially low and ultimately driving unsustainable investment that must eventually be liquidated.  All around the world, the boom bust cycle continues to occur due to central banks attempting to induce economic growth with money printing.  China’s economy is continuing to come apart as manufacturing output and real estate prices plummet.  These sectors were bid up by double digit increases per annum in the country’s money supply over the past decade.  Since inflationary growth, by definition, can’t go on forever, as its continuance results in what Ludwig von Mises called the “crack-up boom” and destruction of the currency, the chickens of the People’s Bank of China’s reckless monetary policy are finally coming home to roost.  The PBOC has responded to the downturn by recently cutting interest rates for the first time since 2008 in what will likely be a vain effort to reinflate the bubble.

Over in Europe, the year over year change in the broad money supply has dropped dramatically since 2010.  This provided the spark for the sovereign debt crisis which shows no sign of slowing down unless Angela Merkel and Germany concede to further inflationary measures by the European Central Bank.  Just like her support for the big banks and the austerity measures that ensure idiotic bankers don’t take too much of a loss on their holdings of euro government bonds, Merkel will likely give in to money printing in the end as she has already endorsed the push for a political union.

And now in Canada, Mark Carney announced a few days ago the Bank of Canada will keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 1%.  This announcement comes despite his previous warnings over the enormous increase in Canadian private debt.  But of course the run up in debt couldn’t have occurred if interest rates were determined by market factors only.  Had supply and demand been allowed to function freely, interest rates would have risen as a check on the swell in debt accumulation.   Carney won’t admit this though.  Like all central bankers, he has made a habit of boasting the positive effects of his low interest rates policies while avoiding blame for the negative consequences.

He is a bartender who gleefully takes the drunk’s cash while replying with “who, me?” when said drunk drinks himself to death.

What makes the promise of continually low interest rates especially worrisome is not only does it tell the market to keep accumulating debt, but it is also an attempt to keep what some are calling a nation-wide housing bubble from deflating.  Over the past decade, Canadian home prices have shot up at a far steeper pace compared to the decades that preceded it.  In recent years, the acceleration in home prices has been fueled by the Bank of Canada’s historically low overnight lending rate which went from 3% before the financial crisis to .25% in 2009 and now rests steadily at 1%.  The BoC has already acknowledged that its interest rate policies directly affect mortgage rates.  Many Canadian media publications and investment newsletters are pointing out this trend and warning of a potential collapse.  The BBC even did a report on it.  There is nothing potential about a sharp downturn in home prices however; it will happen.  It’s only a question of when.

With China and Europe leading the pack, the world economy is beginning to take a turn for the worse.  The orgy of money printing which took place over the past few years has slowed down significantly; even in the U.S.  Central bankers are standing at a precipice in which they must decide if they will forge ahead and prime the monetary pump to paper over the various malinvestments caused by their previous interventions or actually allow for a contraction and the market to adjust to a new path of sustainable growth.  If history is any indication, the latter is not a considerable option as it would be devastating to the banking sector which is reliant on piggybacking credit expansion off of an uninterrupted flow of newly printed monies.

Carney’s decision to keep interest rates suppressed is yet another instance of a central banker unable to face reality.  The malinvestments will continue to accumulate and will have to be liquidated at another date.  What Carney has done to mitigate the looming debt and housing bubble is effectively kick the can down the road.  He has revealed through his actions the undeniable truth which holds for all central bankers: that they have no other card to play but the printing press.  As legendary investor Marc Faber has noted,

“I do not believe that the central banks around the world will ever, and I repeat ever, reduce their balance sheets. They’ve gone the path of money printing… And once you choose that path, you’re in it and you have to print more money.”

The Austrian theory of the trade cycle developed by Mises a century ago tells us that credit expansion is bound to end in depression.  To quote Herbert Stein’s Law, the business cycle theory essentially boils down to “if something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”  The debt fueled boom in Canada is a house of cards.  No matter how much money printing or interest rate manipulation Carney attempts, the collapse in inevitable.   His record, along with Ben Bernanke’s, will eventually be one of dismal failure.

Tags: Angela Merkel, Bank Of Canada, Bank Of Canada Governor, Bank Of China, Ben Bernanke, Bust Cycle, Central Banks, China, Crack Up, Debt Crisis, Digit Increases, Global Recession, Ludwig Von Mises, Ludwig Von Mises Institute, Mark Carney, Money Printing, Money Supply, Pboc, Sovereign Debt, Vain Effort, Von Mises Institute
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China Joins Global Easing Party By Cutting The Lending And Deposit Rates By 25 bps

Thursday, June 7th, 2012

Update: 9:00 am has come and gone… and no global bailout unlike November 30, 2011. Not a good sign for those expect a central-bank D-Day.

While minutes ago the Bank of England followed in the ECB’s footsteps, it was the China central bank that stole England’s thunder, announcing an unexpected rate cut moments before 7 am, and thus finally joining the global easing party: this was the first Chinese interest rate cut since 2008. As a reminder, hours before the global central bank intervention on November 30, China announced its first (50 bps) reserve requirement cut since 2008. Is today’s PBOC move, which is the first cut of deposit and 1 year lending rates also since 2008, a harbinger of something much bigger to come any second now?

From the PBOC:

The People’s Bank of China decided to cut financial institutions RMB benchmark deposit and lending interest rates since June 8, 2012. One-year benchmark deposit rate cut of 0.25 percentage points, year benchmark lending interest rate cut by 0.25 percentage points; other deposit and lending interest rates and individual housing provident fund deposit and lending rates be adjusted accordingly.

 

Since the same day: (1) the upper limit of the floating range of interest rates on deposits of financial institutions was adjusted to 1.1 times the benchmark interest rate; (2) loans from financial institutions interest rate floating range of the lower limit was adjusted to 0.8 times the benchmark interest rate.

And from Bloomberg:

China Cuts Interest Rates for First Time Since 2008

China cut interest rates for the first time since 2008, stepping up efforts to combat a deepening economic slowdown as Europe’s worsening debt crisis threatens global growth.

The benchmark one-year lending rate will drop to 6.31 percent from 6.56 percent effective tomorrow, the People’s Bank of China said on its website today. The one-year deposit rate will fall to 3.25 percent from 3.5 percent. Banks can also offer a 20 percent discount to the benchmark lending rate, the PBOC said, widening from a previous 10 percent.

European stocks and U.S. index futures extended gains as China’s move fanned optimism that policy makers around the world will do more to bolster growth. The announcement, two days before China is due to report inflation, investment and output figures, may signal that the economy is weaker than the government expected.

“This will be the beginning of a rate cut cycle and there will be at least one more reduction this year,” said Shen Jianguang, a Hong Kong-based economist with Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. “The data to be released over the weekend must be very weak and inflation must have eased sharply.”

The MSCI All-Country World Index added 0.8 percent at 7:30 a.m. in New York. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index jumped 1.2 percent, extending yesterday’s biggest rally in six months, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures advanced 0.7 percent.

Slower Growth

The central bank last reduced benchmark interest rates in late 2008, when the government unveiled a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion at the time) stimulus package to counter the effects of the global financial crisis. Interest rates have been unchanged since an increase in July 2011.

Industrial output in China, the world’s biggest producer of steel and cement, probably rose 9.8 percent last month from a year earlier, close to the slowest pace in three years, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 27 economists ahead of a National Bureau of Statistics report due June 9.

Inflation may have moderated to 3.2 percent in May from a year earlier after a 3.4 percent rate in April, a separate survey showed, the fourth month consumer prices have risen by less than the government’s 2012 target of 4 percent.

Today’s move signals policy makers are concerned that the cost of borrowing is crimping companies’ spending and holding back expansion in the world’s second-biggest economy. Three bank officials told Bloomberg News last month that the nation’s biggest banks may fall short of loan targets for the first time in at least seven years as demand for credit wanes.
Slowdown Worsening

The PBOC cut banks’ reserve requirements in November for the first time in three years, and again in February and May, to spur lending.

China’s manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace in six months in May, a government report showed on June 1, adding to signs the nation’s slowdown is worsening. A separate purchasing managers’ index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics pointed to a seventh straight contraction, the longest stretch since the global financial crisis.

Premier Wen Jiabao and the State Council, or Cabinet, pledged last month to place greater emphasis on stabilizing growth after data showed April industrial production, new loans and exports all increased less than economists forecast. The data prompted banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp. to cut their economic-growth estimates.

Slowdown Worsening

The PBOC cut banks’ reserve requirements in November for the first time in three years, and again in February and May, to spur lending.

China’s manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace in six months in May, a government report showed on June 1, adding to signs the nation’s slowdown is worsening. A separate purchasing managers’ index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics pointed to a seventh straight contraction, the longest stretch since the global financial crisis.

Premier Wen Jiabao and the State Council, or Cabinet, pledged last month to place greater emphasis on stabilizing growth after data showed April industrial production, new loans and exports all increased less than economists forecast. The data prompted banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp. to cut their economic-growth estimates.

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