Rosenberg, Lee Debate Outlook for U.S. Stocks

Monday, March 26th, 2012

Thomas Lee, chief U.S. equity strategist of JPMorgan Chase, and David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist of Gluskin Sheff & Associates, talk about the outlook for U.S. stocks and their investment strategies. 

Source: Bloomberg, March 23, 2012

Tags: Chief Economist, David Rosenberg, Debate, Gluskin Sheff, Investment Strategies, Jpmorgan Chase, Outlook, Stocks, Strategist, Thomas Lee
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Can China Move Past the Middle?

Tuesday, October 4th, 2011

Stefan Wagstyl, FT emerging markets editor, and James Kynge, editor of China Confidential discuss the highlights of a special FT debate looking at the choices that lie ahead for the world’s second largest economy.

Click here or on the image below to watch the video.

Source: Financial Times, October 1, 2011.

Tags: Ahead, China Confidential, Choices, Debate, Economy, Emerging Markets, Financial Times, Image, James Kynge, Source Financial, Video Source
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Shiller vs Siegel: The Market Debate – Are Stocks Overvalued?

Tuesday, May 3rd, 2011

Yale University economist Robert Shiller and Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel square off in a debate hosted by WSJ’s E.S. Browning on the best method for calculating market value and what their conflicting assessments mean for investors.

Source: MarketWatch, April 27, 2011 (hat tip: The Big Picture).

The chart below show’s Shiller’s normalised price-earnings ratio since 1950. A picture speaks a thousand words …

Tags: Big Picture, Browning, Debate, Economist, Hat Tip, Investors, Jeremy Siegel, Normalised, Price Earnings Ratio, Robert Shiller, Stocks, Wharton, Wsj, Yale University
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Gold Bulls and Bears Debate Outlook

Friday, November 26th, 2010

Is gold headed for another streak of records? Gold bears and bulls square off at San Francisco’s Hard Assets Investment Conference.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, November 22, 2010.

Tags: Assets, Bulls And Bears, Debate, Gold Bulls, Investment Conference, Outlook, San Francisco, Wall Street, Wall Street Journal
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Zandi vs Taylor: Did stimulus funding help or hurt the U.S. economy?

Monday, August 2nd, 2010

A new study by economists Mark Zandi and Alan Blinder showed the U.S. government’s nearly $800 billion economic stimulus and the Wall Street bailout likely steered the American economy away from another depression. Jeffrey Brown moderates a debate between Zandi and Stanford University economist John Taylor.

Click here for a transcript of the interview.

Source: PBS Newshour, July 29, 2010.

Tags: Alan Blinder, American Economy, Bailout, Debate, Depression, Economic Stimulus, Economist John, Economists, Interview Source, Jeffrey Brown, John Taylor, Mark Zandi, Pbs, Pbs Newshour, Stanford University, Wall Street
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“Bonds are for Losers” Revisited

Friday, May 7th, 2010

Tags: Big Picture, Bonds, Com Blog, Dave Rosenberg, Debate, Factory Source, Glue Factory, Invictus, Losers, Rosie
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The new, modern Russia

Tuesday, April 13th, 2010

This article is a guest post from Peter Elam Håkansson, East Capital.

2010-04-12

There is currently a lot of talk across Russia about the need to modernise the country. The debate has been led by President Medvedev and highlights a number of areas that need attention in order for Russia not to be left behind. Western media has been giving the issue some notice, and the comments have often focused on whether or not this is a criticism of Putin’s governing
style in recent years.

We feel, however, that the full scope of what such a modernisation could involve has been overlooked, and we challenge our newsletter readers to read the following from the Institute of Contemporary Development: http://www.riocenter.ru/en/news/analytics/8034. The institute is run by Igor Yurgens, and the chairman is no less than President Medvedev. In the report, entitled “Russia in the 21st Century: a vision for the future”, there is a lot of exciting material.

Perhaps the most exciting of all (and most overlooked by the press) is the discussion surrounding membership of both NATO and the EU! Fascinating thoughts, and naturally nothing that will happen overnight. But Yurgens is convinced this would lay the best foundation for future developments in Russia. We agree completely, and feel that this would not only be good for Russia, but also for the West.

This is not a view shared by everyone in Russia however, and the report was criticised somewhat in the Russian media upon its release. Click this link to see the NY Times’ comments on the issue: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/04/world/europe/04russia.html. East Capital has for a long time been convinced of the fantastic potential in Russia, and we think these comments are mind boggling. This is not something we expected to hear so early in the debate, and not something that we considered in our positive scenario for the country.

The Russian economy at the moment
In the last newsletter, we wrote about what we experience during our company visits in Russia, and this month, we can report that this is also starting to have an impact on the various forecasts being released. The consensus on growth is closer to 5%, which is what we predicted. The World Bank just released a forecast of 5.5%, whilst the IMF figure remains at 3.5% (up however from the 1.5% predicted as late as November). The growth is most evident in industrial production and private consumption is showing small improvements. However, we think this is set to change in the year to come.

Peter Elam Håkansson
Written onboard flight QR 089 (Qatar Airways) from Doha to Stockholm

Tags: 21st Century, Analytics, Debate, Elam, Emerging Markets, Full Scope, Led, Left Behind, Long Time, Medvedev, Modernisation, Nato, Newsletter Readers, Ny Times, Putin, Ru, Russia, Russian Economy, Russian Media, World Europe
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Eveillard vs. Whitman: Legendary Value Investors Debate Markets

Monday, June 1st, 2009

Two legendary value investors share their view of the market declines and their strategies in it, on May 16, 2009. Consuelo Mack is joined by the still cautious Jean-Marie Eveillard of First Eagle Funds and the bullish Third Avenue Funds’ Marty Whitman.

Tags: Consuelo Mack, Debate, Eagle Funds, Mack, Market Declines, Marty Whitman, Third Avenue Funds, Value Investors
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US Stocks Today versus 1938

Wednesday, May 20th, 2009

As investors debate the longevity of the nascent stock market advance, they are increasingly falling back on similar historical situations to glean perspective. In this regard, a comparison of the current market and that of 1936 – 1938 makes for interesting reading.

Strikingly, the charts below, courtesy of Bespoke, show similar patterns in the movements of the S&P 500 Index from 2007 to 2009 to those of 1936 to 1938.

Given the similarity of the advances and declines in these periods, Bespoke looked at how the S&P 500 would have to perform going forward in order to keep the relationship intact.

At its peak on May 8, the S&P 500 had notched up gains of 38.2% from the March lows. In 1938, the S&P advanced 50.5% in the four months following its low.

Bespoke said: “If the S&P 500 were to have a similar rally off its lows today, it would top out at 1,018. While breaking 1,000 on the S&P 500 seems remarkable given where we were in March, it is still nearly 200 points lower than where the index was trading before the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.” Time will tell …

Source: Bespoke, May 18, 2009.

Tags: Advances And Declines, Bankruptcy, Current Market, Debate, Four Months, Investors, Lehman Brothers, Longevity, Lows, Market Advance, Periods, Perspective, Rally, Regard, Relationship, Similarity, Stock Market, Stocks
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