The Economy and Bond Market Radar (June 11, 2012)

Sunday, June 10th, 2012

The Economy and Bond Market Radar (June 11, 2012)

After hitting record lows last week, bond yields moved higher this week in what could be best described as a mini “risk on” trade. Economic data remains weak, Europe is still in turmoil and we saw interest rate cuts in China and Australia. It is somewhat counterintuitive that bonds would sell off under such a scenario but this is a similar pattern to other periods when the Federal Reserve enacted quantitative easing. The market has already priced in the easing, and by the time it actually happens, the market is already looking ahead.

Strengths

• China surprised the market by cutting interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. It has been speculated the rate cut was a preemptive move, anticipating weak economic data that China is scheduled to release over the weekend.
• Australia cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.5 percent, which is the lowest since 2009.
• The ISM Services Non-Manufacturing Index remained solidly in growth territory in May at 53.7.

Weaknesses

• Factory orders fell 0.6 percent in April and have been very weak so far this year.
• The eurozone Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in May fell to the lowest level since June 2009.
• Both the Fed and European Central Bank (ECB) did not offer any additional monetary measures for the market this week, which disappointed the markets.

Opportunity

• Bonds continue to grind higher and appear to be forecasting benign inflation and slow growth.
• The Fed appears willing to increase monetary accommodation if necessary, which would be a boost to the bond market.

Threat

• China’s economy is slowing faster than expected and government policy makers responded this week by cutting interest rates. This likely indicates weak economic data in the near term.
• Europe remains a wildcard with austerity programs under pressure, creating significant uncertainty.

Tags: Austerity Programs, Basis Points, Bond Market, Bond Yields, China, China Economy, China S Economy, ECB, Economic Data, Federal Reserve, Government Policy Makers, Interest Rate Cuts, Ism, Market Radar, Monetary Measures, Pmi, Preemptive Move, Purchasing Managers Index, Record Lows, Turmoil, Wildcard
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China and EU Concerns Lifts Bonds (May 28, 2012)

Sunday, May 27th, 2012

The Economy and Bond Market Radar (May 28, 2012)

Treasury yields were little changed as mixed economic data here in the U.S. and lots of back and forth speculation in Europe led to an overall muted reaction. New home sales were a bright spot and as can be seen in the chart below, have been steadily trending high since last summer. A similar pattern is taking place in the existing home market and real market recovery appears to be underway.

Strengths

• The University of Michigan Confidence Index hit the highest level since October 2007, citing lower gasoline prices.
• April new home sales rose 3.3 percent, beating expectations.
• Existing home sales grew 3.4 percent in April and the median priced jumped 7.6 percent.

Weaknesses

• Durable goods orders in April were weak, with “core” capital goods orders falling 1.9 percent, the third decline in four months.

• HSBC’s flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for China fell to 48.7 in May and disappointed hopes for a rebound.

• Markit’s eurozone PMI told a similar story as this indicator fell to the lowest level in nearly three years.

Opportunity

• Bonds continue to grind higher and appear to be forecasting benign inflation and slow growth.
• The Federal Reserve appears willing to increase monetary accommodation if necessary, which would be a boost to the bond market.

Threat

• China’s economy is slowing faster than expected and government policy makers appear comfortable with this dynamic.
• Europe remains a wildcard with austerity programs under pressure, creating significant uncertainty.

Tags: Austerity Programs, Bond Market, Capital Goods, China Economy, Confidence Index, Core Capital, Durable Goods Orders, Economic Data, Eurozone, Existing Home Sales, Federal Reserve, Four Months, Gasoline Prices, Government Policy Makers, Market Radar, Pmi, Purchasing Managers Index, Rebound, Treasury Yields, University Of Michigan Confidence, Wildcard
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The Dating Game: Michael Pettis Challenges The Economist to a Bet on China

Friday, March 30th, 2012

The Economist says “China’s GDP, measured in nominal dollars, will be the world’s largest by 2018″. Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets disagrees and says I would like to make a bet with The Economist.

I recently read in The Guardian an article by enthusiastic orientalist Martin Jacques in which he says that The Economist has just predicted that China’s GDP, measured in nominal dollars, will be the world’s largest by 2018. Earlier estimates, he says had China becoming the largest economy in the world by 2027.

I have always been a little skeptical about the 2027 claim … given how much we would have to assume about the sustainability of Chinese growth, about the likelihood of current GDP numbers not having been vastly inflated by an over-investment boom, and about the unstable range of political outcomes. It seemed to me to be a prediction about as valuable as the world-beating predictions about the USSR in the 1960s or Japan in the 1980s.

Still, this 2018 prediction deserves I think more than a little questioning — it requires that nominal Chinese GDP growth in dollars outpace nominal US GDP growth by 12% a year.

So I am wondering whether we could set up a friendly bet — not for too large stakes. I would like to bet that by the end of 2018 China will not be the largest economy in the world.

If I win, perhaps The Economist could invite a very cool underground Chinese band of my choice to perform at their next big conference, whereas if I lose I could buy four-year subscriptions (student rates, please) to a group of Peking University freshmen. Everybody would end up feeling pretty pleased with themselves no matter who wins, right? So?

The Dating Game

Inquiring minds are looking at an interactive chart on The Economist in an article called The Dating Game.

AMERICA’S GDP is still roughly twice as big as China’s (using market exchange rates). To predict when the gap might be closed, The Economist has updated its interactive chart below with the latest GDP numbers. This allows you to plug in your own assumptions about real GDP growth in China and America, inflation rates and the yuan’s exchange rate against the dollar. Over the past ten years, real GDP growth averaged 10.5% a year in China and 1.6% in America; inflation (as measured by the GDP deflator) averaged 4.3% and 2.2% respectively. Since Beijing scrapped its dollar peg in 2005, the yuan has risen by an annual average of just over 4%. Our best guess for the next decade is that annual GDP growth averages 7.75% in China and 2.5% in America, inflation rates average 4% and 1.5%, and the yuan appreciates by 3% a year. Plug in these numbers and China will overtake America in 2018. Alternatively, if China’s real growth rate slows to an average of only 5%, then (leaving the other assumptions unchanged) it would not become number one until 2021. What do you think?

Snapshot of The Economist Baseline Assumptions

The interactive graph is too large for my blog, but the above screen snapshot shows The Economist baseline assumptions. To play around with the numbers, click on the above link.

I share a viewpoint with Pettis that The Economist is way too generous in their estimate of real GDP growth for China.

Pettis thinks China will average 3% growth and I already posted I found that number reasonable. As far as Yuan appreciation is concerned, I am not at all convinced the Yuan is undervalued at all, yet I plugged in a nominal 2% annual appreciation.

Assuming a “Real GDP growth” of 3% and Inflation at 4% yields a chart that looks like this.

Snapshot of Mish Baseline Assumptions

Even still, I wonder if the year 2030 is still far too optimistic from the standpoint of China.

I strongly believe peak oil and energy consumption is going to put a serious damper on Chinese growth, and that is on top a necessary and very painful shift away from an entirely unsustainable growth model based on exports, housing, and fixed investment.

I share Pettis’ view regarding “inflated GDP numbers, an over-investment boom, and the unstable range of political outcomes” adding my own energy concerns and yuan valuation concerns on top of it all.

Thoughts on Chinese Growth

• March 23, 2012: Excellent Document on Decoupling and Global Supply Chains by ECRI; Why BRIC, and U.S. Decoupling Won’t Happen
• February 29, 2012: World Bank Warns of Economic Crisis in China; Only 3% Growth for Decade Says Michael Pettis
• September 21, 2011: Misleading Indicators – China’s Growth Won’t Last; Chanos on Chinese Property Bubble and Growth
• August 22, 2011: Michael Pettis on Long-Term Outlook for China, Europe, and the World; 12 Global Predictions

I find the arguments by Pettis, the ECRI, and Chanos compelling. Add to that the restraint of peak oil coupled with potential political instability and the proper conclusion is that long-term Chinese growth of 7.5% is Fantasyland material.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Tags: Bet, China Economy, China Gdp, Chinese Growth, Dating Game, Economist, Financial Markets, Game America, Gap, GDP, GDP Growth, Inquiring Minds, Interactive Chart, Investment Boom, Market Exchange Rates, Michael Pettis, Orientalist, Peking University, Political Outcomes, University Freshmen
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Emerging-Market Stocks Have More Upside, But in Need of Correction

Tuesday, March 6th, 2012

In past articles I referred to the relationship between the MSCI Emerging Market Index expressed in Swiss francs and China’s CFLP Manufacturing PMI. By using arguably one of the world’s only non-fiat currencies the influence of currency movements on the MSCI Emerging Market Index is minimized.

The graph below illustrates just how out of line and inexpensive emerging-market equities were compared to the state of the world’s growth locomotive in the latter half of 2011 as the Eurozone debt crisis spooked investors. The market returned to rationality as the crisis eased in recent months, with the MSCI Emerging Market Index in line with February’s PMI of 51.0.

Sources: CFLP; Li & Fung; I-Net Bridge; Plexus Holdings.

But where to from here?

After collapsing to 48.3 in November last year my seasonally adjusted CFLP Manufacturing PMI for China increased for the third consecutive month to 51.9 in February, with the drop in the reserve requirement rate (RRR) of Chinese banks filtering through to the economy. As the global economy is not out of the woods yet, the further cut in the RRR in February is likely to lend additional support to the seasonally adjusted PMI and therefore China’s economy in coming months.

Sources: CFLP; Li & Fung; NBSC; Plexus Holdings.

After being held in check by the Golden Week celebrations of China’s lunar New Year from the second half of January through mid-February, the unadjusted CFLP Manufacturing PMI is likely to receive a significant seasonal boost in March and April.

Sources: CFLP; Li & Fung; Plexus Holdings.

I therefore argue that the MSCI Emerging Market Index in terms of Swiss francs is likely to be underscored by the expected seasonal strength in the unadjusted PMI, as well as the acceleration in growth as reflected in the seasonally adjusted PMI, on the back of the reduced RRR of Chinese banks.

In a previous note I pointed out that changes in the direction of China’s banks’ RRR were soon followed by directional changes in the Shanghai Composite Index (SSEC 2410.45 �‘0.00%). In the following graph the cumulative change in the RRR was quantified where a 0.5% change in RRR amounts to approximately US$60 billion. When depicted against the MSCI Emerging Market Index in Swiss francs it is evident that changes in direction in the RRR are followed by major changes in direction of the MSCI Emerging Market Index in CHF. The cuts in the RRR in the last quarter of 2008 were followed by a bottom in the MSCI Emerging Market Index in the first quarter of 2009. The hike in the RRR in the first quarter of 2010 was initially followed by the topping out of emerging-market equities, while further increases led to a slump in equity prices. Although equity prices showed an improvement at the start of the fourth quarter last year the cut in the RRR pulled equity prices out of the doldrums.

Sources: NBSC; I-Net Bridge; Plexus Holdings.

The MSCI Emerging Market Index has significantly outperformed the MSCI World Index since December last year and is currently in line with China’s unadjusted CFLP Manufacturing PMI.

Sources: CFLP; Li & Fung; I-Net Bridge; Plexus Holdings.

The Shanghai Composite Index in terms of U.S. dollars relative to the S&P 500 Index (SPX 1350.02 �“-1.05%) has moved completely out of line with the unadjusted CFLP Manufacturing PMI, though.

Sources: CFLP; Li & Fung; I-Net Bridge; Plexus Holdings.

The appearance of another black swan will alter my view but as things are I am of the opinion that the rally in emerging-market equities is likely to continue over the next few months. That said, the market has had a huge run and, being overbought, it is in desperate need of consolidation or even a major correction. I continue to favor the Chinese stock market above other emerging markets and developed markets.

Tags: Acceleration, Celebrations, China Economy, China S Economy, Chinese Banks, Currency Movements, Debt Crisis, Emerging Market Stocks, fiat, Fiat Currencies, Global Economy, Locomotive, Lunar New Year, Msci Emerging Market, Msci Emerging Market Index, Nbsc, Pmi, Rationality, Rrr, Swiss Francs
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China’s Cut in Reserve Requirements – Very Bullish for Stocks

Wednesday, February 22nd, 2012

The PBoC’s announcement of a 0.5% cut in the reserve requirement rate (RRR) of Chinese banks has significant consequences not only for the Chinese economy but also for China’s stock market. The cut to 20.5% for large banks follows a similar cut in December last year after hikes since January 2010 that saw the RRR increasing in 12 increments from 15.5% to 21.5%. It is estimated that one half percent change in the RRR amounts to a change of approximately 400 billion yuan or roughly US$60 billion in liquidity. It therefore means that the jump in the RRR since January 2010 has effectively drained overall liquidity by approximately US$720 billion. That is equal to approximately 6% of China’s GDP in 2010 and 2011 combined.

Although the PBoC cited weak external demand as the main reason for the drop in the RRR, liquidity became very tight in recent weeks and forced interbank rates significantly higher. The CFLP Manufacturing PMI that I seasonally adjust continues to indicate lackluster growth in China’s manufacturing sector largely as a result of weak export orders. As in 2008 the PBoC held off on further increases in the RRR in 2011 when weakness in the manufacturing PMI became apparent. The first cut in the RRR last year was announced when the manufacturing PMI contracted – again similar to what happened in 2008. The latest cut therefore indicates that the manufacturing PMI for February is likely to again show abysmal growth.

Sources: CFLP; Li & Fung; BIS; Plexus Asset Management

The weakness of China’s economy is not only confined to the manufacturing sector, though. While still signaling growth, my seasonally adjusted CFLP Non-manufacturing PMI indicates that growth has slowed to about half of the average since the recovery after the 2008/2009 crisis.

Sources: CFLP; Li & Fung; BIS; Plexus Holdings.

The weakness in the non-manufacturing sector is driven by weak consumer confidence.

Sources: CFLP; Li & Fung; NBSC; Plexus Holdings.

My GDP-weighted seasonally adjusted CFLP PMI indicates that China’s year-on-year GDP growth has slowed to approximately 8 – 8.5% from 8.9% in the fourth quarter last year.

Sources: CFLP; Li & Fung; NBSC; Plexus Holdings.

The cut in the RRR is consistent with what happened in 2008 when GDP growth fell below 9%.

Sources: NBSC; BIS; Plexus Holdings.

Assuming that a 0.5% change in the RRR equaled US$60 billion throughout, I calculated the cumulative liquidity drain. It is evident that changes in liquidity lead GDP growth by approximately two quarters and the seasonally adjusted manufacturing PMI by three months.

Sources: NBSC; BIS; Plexus Holdings.

Sources: CFLP; Li & Fung; BIS; Plexus Holdings.

I view the cut in the RRR as very bullish for Chinese stocks. Changes in the direction of the RRR had a major impact on the Shanghai Composite Index (SSEC 2403.59 �‘0.00%) in the recent past. In 2008 the first cut in the RRR coincided with the bottom in the Shanghai Composite Index, while the hike in January 2010 coincided with the start of the slide in equity prices.

Sources: CFLP; Li & Fung; BIS; Plexus Holdings.

The market is currently not out of sync with the underlying economy and is discounting a not seasonally adjusted CFLP Manufacturing PMI of approximately 50 for February. March and April are normally exceptionally strong months from a seasonal perspective and are likely to be supportive of stock prices. Together with the likely impact of the increase in liquidity I think the next strong bull market in Chinese stocks is underway. I stick to my view that the Chinese stock market will be the best performing equity market globally in 2012.

Sources: CFLP; Li & Fung; Plexus Holdings.

Tags: China Economy, China Gdp, China S Economy, Chinese Banks, Chinese Economy, Consumer Confidence, Economy China, Export Orders, GDP, Half Percent, Increments, Interbank Rates, liquidity, Manufacturing Sector, Pboc, Percent Change, Plexus Asset Management, Rrr, Stock Market, Yuan
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Chanos: How China Could Fail the World Economy

Wednesday, February 22nd, 2012

1. Hedge fund manager Jim Chanos says slowing demand in China will continue and may have ripple effects around the global economy.

2. China skeptic Jim Chanos says the air has already started to come out of China’s housing bubble.

Source: CNNMoney, February 21, 2012.

Tags: China Air, China Economy, China Housing, Economy China, Global Economy, Hedge Fund Manager, Housing Bubble, Jim Chanos, Ripple Effects, Skeptic, World Economy
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Cash Crunch in China Picks Up Momentum; Chinese Economy “Teetering On the Edge”

Tuesday, September 27th, 2011

Todd Martin, an Asia equity strategist at Societe General SA, talks about the outlook for China’s economy and credit market. Martin also discusses global stocks and commodities. He speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move Asia.”

The interview starts off with a very weak idea “fundamentals have been thrown out the window”. However the analysis gets much better as the video progresses. Here are a few key ideas from Todd Martin.

• RMB offshore vs. onshore rate is at a historic low. This shows Hong Kong or China mainlanders are hoarding cash, possibly to repay debts.
• The liquidation phase is concerning. Markets are looking into a deflationary abyss.
• Recent capital inflows into China are misleading. It was not investment but rather mainland money repatriated to repay debt.
• Cash crunch in China picks up momentum. We are going into a new down phase and true credit cycle in China. That can take on a life of its own.

Select Quotes

Rishaad Salamat: “Are you saying at the moment that the Chinese economy is teetering on the edge as a consequence of all this?”

Todd Martin: “It’s beginning to look like that. There are signals that there is a cash crunch and it is picking up momentum. The offshore RMB market for one. The repatriation of capital for two. This could cascade into a property correction. Once that gets going, you could probably get a lot of sellers jumping into the market.”

Rishaad Salamat: Is commodities the worst asset class to be in, at the moment?

Todd Martin: “Commodities is probability the worst asset class to get hit. If you are in a business seeing input prices fall and you have some pricing power downstream, then you could come out OK. Steel prices are still falling faster than iron ore, so that is still not one to be in yet. It’s pretty bloody. We are withing 15% of the bottom but the credit cycle concerns me.”

Fundamentals

I disagree with Martin about the fundamentals. I think fundamentals on China are horrible. I have been bearish on commodities because China is overheating at a time global demand from Europe and the US will collapse.

For further discussion, please see Michael Pettis: Long-Term Outlook for China, Europe, and the World; 12 Global Predictions written August 22.

Hopping into commodities or commodity-related currencies with a strengthening US dollar, falling global demand, a potential breakup of the Eurozone, a default by Greece, etc, was a poor investment idea.

Please see the link for a very nice discussion of 12 detailed ideas for the global economy.

This is what I said on August 22, in response to the ideas of Pettis.

Six Key Ideas

1. China Will Slow Much More than China Bulls and Commodity Bulls Think
2. Non-food Commodities Take Big Hit
3. Eurozone Experiment Ends in Breakup
4. US Protectionism Takes Hold
5. Deficit Countries Control Demand, Thus Have the Best Cards
6. Disaster Hits BRICs

Contrarian Thinking

Except perhaps for points three and four (and perhaps for all six points) investors and analysts have taken the opposite view. Most are looking to buy the dip, invest in commodities, invest in commodity producing currencies, and invest in the BRICs.

We did not have commodity producer decoupling in 2008 and there is no reason to expect it as debt-deflation plays out and China abandons its reckless investments in infrastructure.

I suspect China slows sooner than Pettis thinks, but no sooner than the next regime change in China. Markets, however, may react well in advance.

Global Deflationary Outlook

Pettis does not use the word “deflation” in his writeup, but he describes a very deflationary global outlook complete with protectionism, beggar-thy-neighbor policies, currency wars, and falling non-food commodity prices.

Pettis did not discuss energy, but the forces are clear: peak oil. vs. global slowdown. Given peak oil and the possibility of war over it, energy is a wildcard.

China did not decouple in 2008 (except perhaps in reverse), and it will not be immune from this global slowdown either.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Tags: Abyss, asset class, Bloomberg Television, Capital Inflows, Cash Crunch, China Economy, Chinese Economy, Commodities, Global Stocks, Infrastructure, Input Prices, Iron Ore, Liquidation Phase, Outlook, Repatriation, Salamat, Societe General, Steel Prices, Stocks And Commodities, Strategist, Teetering On The Edge, Todd Martin, True Credit
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Mapping China’s Growth

Tuesday, January 4th, 2011

China’s economy continues to be full of surprises. Estimates from CLSA show China’s macroeconomic growth outpaced consensus estimates in 2010. Many expected a dramatic slowdown as government stimulus expired, but strength from the private sector pushed GDP growth above 10 percent.

CLSA says 2011 will mostly be the same story. The firm expects China to grow about 9.5 percent this year, fueled by a mixture of investment (5.5 percent) and consumption (4 percent).

Once again, this growth is expected without the help of the U.S. and Western Europe, whose economies continue to be two steps forward, one step back. This means exports are expected to contribute little-to-nothing to the country’s economic growth in 2011.

We witnessed many shifts in the global economic balance over the past decade but none as profound as the tilt toward China. These three maps illustrate countries that have equal GDP to Chinese provinces in 2000, 2009 and 2020.

In 2000, China’s union of provinces was similar to poor, developing countries. By 2009, China had grown into a union of provinces similar to many booming, developing countries. By 2020, it is projected that China GDP will be the sum of top-tier developing countries.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.

Tags: China Economy, China Gdp, China Maps, China S Economy, Chinese Provinces, Clsa, Consensus Estimates, Developing Countries, Dramatic Slowdown, Economic Balance, Economic Growth, GDP, GDP Growth, Macroeconomic Growth, Private Sector, Rsquo, S Union, Stimulus, Tilt, Two Steps, Western Europe
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Marc Faber: “The bad news is essentially out”

Wednesday, August 4th, 2010

In this video clip, Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, discusses China’s economy. Faber, speaking with Deirdre Bolton on Bloomberg Television’s “InsideTrack”, also talks about Chinese stocks and interest-rate policy.

Here is an excerpt:

“I’ve been arguing this year that the economy would inevitably slow down, because the impact of the stimulus would diminish. But having said that, the economy hasn’t crashed yet. It could still crash. But on the other hand, if you look at the performance of equities worldwide, it seems that the worse the economic news is, that the more the markets go up, because the market participants expect further easing measures, and maybe further stimulus. So altogether I would say it’s not going to be a disaster for stock investors yet.

“It’s interesting. The Chinese stock market began to discount the slowdown in economic growth actually precisely a year ago, in August, 2009. The market peaked out. And then drifted lower, but now that the bad news is essentially out, the market has started to rebound.”

Source: Bloomberg (via YouTube), August 2, 2010.

Tags: Bad News, Bloomberg Television, China Economy, China S Economy, Chinese Stock Market, Chinese Stocks, Deirdre Bolton, Doom, Economic Growth, Economic News, Excerpt, Gloom, Interest Rate Policy, Marc Faber, Market Participants, Slowdown, Stimulus, Stock Investors, Video Clip, Youtube
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Commodities: Time To Go Long and Physical

Thursday, June 3rd, 2010

This article is a guest contribution by Dian L. Chu, Economic Forecasts and Opinions

Deutsche Bank AG recently noted that commodities will continue to “struggle” as the dollar strengthens and China seeks to restrain growth.  Looking at the recent performance between the CRB index, S&P 500 and Legg Mason Emerging Market (LGEMX) would certainly seem to support Deutsche’s view.  (Chart 1)

Bears Gripping Commodity

Right now, due to the sluggish growth in industrialized nations, China remains the single largest consumer and buyer of many commodities.

Although China’s long term growth prospect remains strong, Beijing has started monetary tightening measures, amid concern of asset bubbles and inflation. The latest PMI data also suggests China economy could be slowing down.

Furthermore, with the euro and European Union saddled by PIIGS, dollar could continue to strengthen against euro in the near to medium term amid global risk aversion. Since most commodities are priced in dollar, a stronger dollar typically would depress the price and returns of commodities.

Market Over-reacting

The current momentum of key commodities including oil, copper and gold should be moving higher.  This will happen as soon as investors feel less nervous about the Greek and European drama with the euro gaining support from four major central banks today, and signals of continuing easy monetary policy around the world.

The Gulf oil spill seems to be another event which the markets are having anxieties over. It is true that the Gulf oil spill disaster does have economic and environmental impact to the U.S. Gulf coast, but in the global scheme of things, this most likely will not cause significant enough impact to the fundamentals of crude oil or economic direction to warrant a full blown commodity bear market.

Tags: Bear Market, Central Banks, China, China Economy, Commodities, Commodities Market, Crb Index, Deutsche Bank Ag, Economic Direction, Economic Forecasts, Emerging Market, ETF, ETFs, European Drama, Global Scheme, Gold, Growth Prospect, Gulf Oil, Legg Mason, Natural Gas, oil, Oil Spill, Pullback, Risk Aversion, Scheme Of Things, Sluggish Growth, Term Investors
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