Biderman: “The Most Damage Is Caused By Those Who Are Not As Smart As They Think They Are”

Wednesday, July 25th, 2012

 
It is not often we double-dip in the Sausalitan’s soliloquies but tonight’s glorious truthiness from Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs, is worth the price of admission. After explaining that the only way he could be any more bearish is to be double-levered – and that he believes that besides “believing in miracles” this market will see the March 2009 lows once the market-rigging is fully exposed, he makes probably the most clarifying statement we have heard regarding our central-planners-in-chief. With regards to Messrs. Bernanke, Geithner, and Obama: “The most damage is caused by those who are not as smart as they think they are.” They continue to believe they are smart enough to fix all our financial problems (and Europe’s – if they would just listen to Timmay) by building a bridge over the recession – thanks to asset-buying and ZIRP. “The only problem is we are running out of bridge and are nowhere near recovery” is how he sees it and reflecting on the massive gains that have been made on short-dated Treasuries as the Fed (who is the one buying them) extends the ZIRP horizon – it is clear that this is nothing but a huge Ponzi scheme.

Tags: Bernanke, Building A Bridge, Central Planners, Ceo, Europe, Geithner, Horizon, Lows, Market Rigging, Massive Gains, Messrs, Miracles, Obama, Ponzi Scheme, Price Of Admission, Recession, Soliloquies, Treasuries, Trimtabs, Truthiness
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Bill Ackman and Hunter Harrison Discuss Canadian Pacific

Tuesday, May 1st, 2012

 
Bill Ackman, [$11-billion activist billionaire hedgie] on Canadian Pacific [proxy battle]

A snippet from the transcript:

Ackman: “Even if you take the earnings away, they’re still reported. the profitability of the company is worse than it was six years ago. the profit margin, the so-called operating of the business was worse.

CNBC: But on you calling BS, if you will, on these numbers, are you prepared to walk that back or do you think the numbers are real?

Ackman: Unfortunately right now we’re in the middle of a proxy contest. i don’t know who to believe. Let’s just stick with the reported numbers. By the way, if I got them wrong, I’m happy to admit I’m wrong.

CNBC: If the numbers are right, you will say you were wrong?

Ackman: Sure.

CNBC: There are a number of reports where the company has asked you to apologize and —

Ackman: if I’m wrong, I’m delighted to apologize. Unfortunately right now, the company realizes they’re losing so they want to create a side show out of a technicality.

CNBC: Who do people want? Do people want Fred Green to be CEO of the company going forward?

Ackman: The answer is no. Hunter, by the way, is the most decorated CEO in the railroad industry.

 
Hunter Harrison and Bill Ackman on Running a Better Railroad

Tags: Activist, Bill Ackman, Billionaire, Ceo, Cnbc, Earnings, Hedgie, Hunter Harrison, Nbsp, Profit Margin, Profitability, Proxy Battle, Railroad Industry, Running, Six Years, Snippet, Technicality
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Jim Rogers: “Let Greece Go Bankrupt”

Friday, February 17th, 2012

“Let Greece go bankrupt, let all the people who bankrupt go bankrupt, and then you can start over, you reorganize the assets and start over,” Jim Rogers, CEO of Roger Holdings, told CNBC. “Until that happens, this is going to be an on-going endless discussion,” he said.

Source: CNBC.com

Tags: Assets, Ceo, Cnbc, Greece, Jim Rogers, People
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Canadian Pacific (CP) – Bill Ackman’s Proxy Fight Presentation

Friday, February 10th, 2012

Activist hedgie Bill Ackman gave his February 6, 2012 Canadian Pacific proxy fight presentation, in which he details his case for a change of management which would unlock value at Canada’s second largest railroad. Its a fascinating look inside the thinking process of one of this generation’s most successful activist investors.

There is also a historical look at Ackman’s past successes to serve as an indication of what is possible for the Canadian railroad, whose shares have traded at valuations well below its North American peers.

At the heart of his proxy fight, Ackman contends that Fred Green, current CEO is one reason the company has underperformed, and that Hunter Harrison, his nominee, would be a more suitable CEO, in leading a transformation of Canadian Pacific.

Among the factual arguments is this nugget:

“Canadian Pacific is 70% the size of Canadian National, yet has an enterprise value 40% as large, due to its inferior profitability and asset utilization.”

Here in the slidedeck below is the complete presentation – fullscreen it for the better read, or download:

Pershing Square – 2012-02-06 – CP

Tags: Activist, Asset Utilization, Bill Ackman, Canada Railroad, Canadian Railroad, Ceo, Enterprise Value, Generations, Heart, Hunter Harrison, Investors, Nugget, Peers, Pershing Square, Presentation, Profitability, Proxy Fight, Shares, Successes, Transformation, Valuations
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Richard Bernstein’s Top Picks for 2012

Monday, December 19th, 2011

In the following video clip, Richard Bernstein, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors, discusses his top equity picks and investment stories for 2012.

Source: USA Today – Investment Roundtable, December 16, 2011.

Tags: Ceo, Chief Investment Officer, Equity Investment, Investment Advisors, Investment Themes, Richard Bernstein, Stock Investment, Top Picks, Top Stock Picks, Top Stories, Top Themes, Usa Today, Video Clip
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Cooperman Hammers “Ineffectual” Obama

Thursday, December 1st, 2011

Leon Cooperman, Chairman & CEO of Omega Advisors, says he is very alarmed at the direction President Obama is taking the country. Click here for the open letter he wrote to Obama.

Source: CNBC, November 30, 2011.

Tags: Amp, Ceo, Cnbc, Direction, Hammers, Leon Cooperman, Obama, Omega, Stocks
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BlackRock’s Larry Fink Wants to be 100% in Stocks

Monday, July 4th, 2011

“There may be greater safety in equities, especially high dividend stocks and there’s greater safety in very high quality corporate bonds worldwide,” Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock told CNBC. “There are investment opportunities that are pretty unique today,” he added.

Source: CNBC, June 29, 2011.

Tags: Blackrock, Ceo, Cnbc, Corporate Bonds, High Dividend Stocks, Investment Opportunities, June 29, Larry Fink
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David Winters: Finding Value Opportunities Globally

Wednesday, June 22nd, 2011

David Winters, CEO, Wintergreen Advisers, who manages $2.2-billion (incl. $210-million Renaissance Global Markets Fund in Canada) is optimistic about finding great value around the world, and in the U.S., and he talks to CNBC about where and what he likes, even in these markets.

CNBC Transcript
Bill: Our next guest sees troubles as more of distraction from real opportunities he sees around the world in markets. David Winters, CEO of Wintergreen Advisors, considers himself in the minority and they have far outpaced the broader markets with returns of 25%. Where is he finding value with 60% of his $2 billion in assets in companies outside the U.S.? You get about 20% in the U.S. as well. Good to see you.

David Winters: Good to see you as well, Bill.

Bill: You’re not sitting here fretting about the Greek vote?

Winters: That’s the sideshow. There’s such big opportunities in the far east and around the world. There’s a couple billion people who want everything that we have, Bill, and they will work really hard to get it.

Bill: You came from the east, been in Asia the last six weeks. What did you find? We hear anecdotally, there’s wear and tear on margins now on the red hot economies over there.

Winters: Absolutely. At the end of the day though, girls still want jewelry, men want watches, everybody wants a better life for their children. So we think that if you focus on the long term, Bill, there’s a lot of money to be made.

Bill: What about here in the U.S.? You have 20%. What are you investing in?

Winters: We own companies like Norfolk Southern railroad, which will benefit from the recovery in the economy. They have vast coal reserves and they’re well run and we think there are companies to invest in, here in the United States, but if you cast your net globally, you have a lot of opportunity to make money.

Bill: You find a lot of opportunity in Singapore, right?

Winters: Singapore is interesting, but a small place. we like a company like Jardine Matheson that trades there, but earns its money throughout Southeast Asia. We like the idea of making money 24 hours a day.

Bill: Are you concerned China is due for a major correction at some time? does it concern you? I imagine you will look beyond that one as well.

Winters: I’m worried, of course. I have seen lots of construction, but at the end of the day, you have a billion and a half people and they want to work hard and they want everything. I’m sure there will be blips but we’re optimistic.

Do you play it by investing directly or do invest in Multinationals are are able to provide those goods and services overseas.

Winters: As they say, Bill, right on the nose. Global companies, super-regionals; we haven’t really found too many local companies yet but we’re looking.

Bill: Before I let you go, we should point out you like Berkshire Hathaway at these levels?

Winters: Yes, Berkshire, like most of the New York Stock Exchange is unloved, and we think it’s cheap. you would buy it at these levels here. I’m not supposed to say that, but I would say this.

Bill: What’s the catalyst to move that higher?

Winters: I think at some point the sentiment changes. People wake up and they go, things are really going to be all right and stocks move much higher, and I think Berkshire will be one of the stocks that moves higher.

Bill: David Winters, always good to see you.

Copyright © CNBC

Tags: Assets, Better Life, Canadian Market, Ceo, Cnbc, Coal Reserves, David Winters, Distraction, Global Markets, Jardin, Margins, Money Bill, Norfolk Southern, Norfolk Southern Railroad, Renaissance, Sideshow, Six Weeks, Value Opportunities, Watches, Wear And Tear, Wintergreen Advisers
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Why High Oil Prices Are Likely Here to Stay

Sunday, April 10th, 2011

Why High Oil Prices Are Likely Here to Stay

By Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer, U.S. Global Investors

A number of forces continued to push oil prices higher this week, reaching their highest levels in the U.S. since September 2008.

One factor fueling the run has been the continued decline of the U.S. dollar. You can see from the chart that oil and the dollar historically are negatively correlated. This means that a rise in oil prices generally coincides with a decline in the dollar, and vice versa. The U.S. dollar has seen a dramatic decline since the beginning of the year as oil prices have moved some 30 percent higher. This could be due to fact that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. trade deficit is related to oil imports.

Despite the run up, oil’s upward rate of change is still within its normal trading pattern over the past 60 trading days. Accordingly, this may imply that it isn’t a spike and we haven’t crossed into the extreme territory like we experienced in 2008 and 2009.

Conversely, oil prices are positively correlated with gold prices, which also saw a bounce this week. Looking back over the past one- and 10-year periods, oil and gold have roughly a 75 percent correlation. This means that three out of four times, when prices for one go up, prices for the other increase as well.

Another factor pushing prices higher is the seasonal strength that oil prices historically experience leading into the summer driving season. This chart shows the five-, 15- and 28-year patterns for oil prices. You can see that prices historically bottom in February before rising through the end of the summer.

We discussed in detail how these seasonal factors affect oil prices a few weeks ago. Click here to read “Oil’s March Madness a Boost for Refiners.”

Rising oil prices are also a result of what the Financial Times calls the “new geopolitics of oil.” The FT says three elements creating this new environment are becoming clear:

1. Young populations with high unemployment rates and a skewed distribution of income are a volatile combination for the people in power.
2. To placate these groups, oil-producing countries are increasing public expenditures.
3. Governments are also to extend energy subsidies to shelter the country’s consumers from rising energy prices.

A Deutsche Bank chart plots the share of population under the age of 30 for selected North African and Middle Eastern countries against the unemployment rate of this group. You can see that large oil producers such as Saudi Arabia have a high level of unemployment among youth populations.

This is why King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has announced a total of $125 billion worth (27 percent of the country’s GDP) on social programs for the public. For King Abdullah, this is the cost of keeping peace but has driven up the breakeven price for Saudi oil production to $88 per barrel, according to the FT.

Keeping these young populations happy and working is not only domestically important for these governments but for global oil markets as well. You can see from this chart that a significant portion of the world’s oil production comes from the Middle East.

With the unrest in Libya—a top-20 oil producer—essentially knocking out the country’s entire production, any further unrest in another country could threaten global supply. Upcoming elections in Nigeria have the potential to disrupt production for the world’s fifteenth-largest producer.

But it’s not just geopolitics that is threatening production. Natural decline rates from mature fields such as Mexico’s Cantarell oil field are starting to make a dent in global production. Reuters reported this morning that Norway, the world’s eleventh-largest oil producer, is experiencing a significant slowdown in production from the Oseberg oil field in the North Sea. Production is expected to be cut by 26 percent in May to only 118,000 barrels per day.

Meanwhile, oil demand has been picking up significantly in both emerging and developed markets. Oil demand in China and the U.S. has been rising since mid-2009, well before the uprisings began in the Middle East.

In China, a big driver has been growth in the Chinese automobile market. Auto sales increased 2.6 percent in February, and March data is expected to show another increase when the Chinese Auto Association releases March auto sales figures over the weekend.

The G7 economies have been in an up cycle since last year. In the U.S., employment rates and consumer spending have been steadily improving. Oil prices rising too fast remains a threat to this recovery but BCA Research estimates that oil prices need to rise above $120 per barrel before “significantly undermining consumer and business confidence.”

Tags: Ceo, Chief Investment Officer, China, Correlation, Dramatic Decline, Extreme Territory, Financial Times, Frank Holmes, Geopolitics, Gold, Gold Prices, March Madness, oil, Oil Imports, Periods, Refiners, Rising Oil Prices, Seasonal Factors, Spike, Three Elements, Trade Deficit, Two Thirds, U S Global Investors
Posted in Energy & Natural Resources, Gold, Markets, Oil and Gas | Comments Off

PIMCO’s El Erian on Libya

Thursday, February 24th, 2011

Mohamed El-Erian, CEO and co-CIO of Pimco, appeared on Bloomberg yesterday to discuss the unrest in the Middle East.

Source: Bloomberg (via YouTube), February 22, 2011(hat tip: Global Investor Blog).

Tags: Bloomberg, Ceo, Cio, February 22, Global Investor, Hat Tip, Libya, Mohamed El Erian, PIMCO, Unrest, Youtube
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