2013-2015: The Great Ellipsis of 2006-2022

by Conor Sen

Some years matter more than others. 1989 mattered. 1994. 2000. 1995-97, not so much. So itā€™ll be for 2013-15.

2006-12 was a big period. The Great Recession. From the Bush Surge and housing bubble to Obama gridlock and inequality/stagnation concerns, with a brief Pelosi/Obamacare and tea party/debt ceiling crisis interlude. The Pelosi/Reid/Boehner/McConnell era began in 2007. The Blankfein/Dimon era began in 2006. As did the Bernanke era. Social and mobile boomed. The iPhone was introduced in 2007, the iPad in 2010. Steve Jobs died in 2011. LinkedIn IPOā€™ed in 2011, Facebook in 2012. 22 of the nationā€™s 50 governors took office in 2011. We were introduced to the TARP, ZIRP, and QE. Millennials entered the workforce in large numbers.

2013-15 is looking fairly uneventful. The one midterm election didnā€™t produce much change. No recessions. Inflation remains subdued. In tech, social and mobile are maturing, and the Uber/Airbnb/Snapchat class of private tech companies feels a bit like Facebook/LinkedIn/Twitter in 2010, at least 12-24 months away from the glare of the public markets. The iPhone era is still going strong. Housing markets bottomed 3+ years ago but weā€™ve yet to hit the Millennial household formation boom. The megacity-renting Millennial trend is getting long in the tooth but not yet exhausted. Even if the Fed increases interest rates this year for the first time since 2006, weā€™re unlikely to see Chair Yellen tested yet in a major way. Government spending mentalities are still fragile given how many elected leaders came to power during the crisis years. TV ratings continue to erode but weā€™ve yet to hit an existential crisis for the industry. Taylor Swift, the Walking Dead, and superhero movies still rule mainstream culture. Aging iconic companies like AT&T, IBM, McDonaldā€™s, Coke, General Mills, and Kellogg are in various stages of transition.

2016-2022 feels like another era of major change. Two presidential elections and the 2020 Census/redistricting. The acceleration of Millennial household formation and childbirths. The acceleration of Baby Boomer retirements. A new, more pronounced era of migration from the Northeast and Midwest to the Sun Belt. The political power handoff from Baby Boomers to Gen-X and the beginning of Millennials flooding into government. The likelihood of a tech bust and recession, ergo the likelihood of the 2016 presidential winner being a one-termer. Persistent labor and single-family housing shortages. The possibility of the Fed tested by inflation in a major way for the first time in 25+ years. Transportation (Uber, Tesla, self-driving car technology) changing more in 6 years than it has in the past 6 decades. Solar power making significant inroads everywhere. The explosive growth of charter schools. More and more pressure on public sector unions and pensions. The possibility of blue Georgia and North Carolina, and red Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio. A post-Obama/Clinton vacuum for the Democratic party as they rebuild their bench. A big gubernatorial transition in 2018 as the 2010 class gets term-limited. New Congressional leadership as Harry Reid (age 75), Nancy Pelosi (age 74), and Mitch McConnell (age 73) all retire, as well as in all probability Speaker Boehner. The actuarial likelihood of new leadership at Berkshire Hathaway. The possibility of the cable TV bundle giving way to the ā€œOTT bundle.ā€ Gigabit internet goes mainstream. The repurposing of American malls.

The good news is this era should be a lot friendlier to the American worker than 2006-12 was, but may create just as much anxiety all the same.

 

Copyright Ā© Conor Sen

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