by Don Vialoux, EquityClock.com
Pre-opening Comments for Monday September 29th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 11 points in pre-opening trade.
Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for August Personal Income was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.2% in July. Actual was an increase of 0.3%. Consensus for August Personal Spending was an increase of 0.4% versus a decline of 0.1% in July. Actual was an increase of 0.5%.
Encana added $0.84 to $21.97 after the company reached an agreement to purchase Athlon Energy’s Texas properties for $5.9 billion.
Alibaba slipped $0.29 to $90.17 despite Susquehanna initiating coverage with a Positive rating. Target is $110.
FedEx added $0.34 to $160.12 after Cowen upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Outperform. Target is $210.
Mattel fell $0.42 to $30.39 after MKM Partners downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral. Target is $32.
Nike fell $0.51 to $88.99 despite Credit Suisse upgrading the stock from Neutral to Outperform. Target is $100.
Yahoo added $0.22 to $40.88 after Needham upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy. Target is $48.
EquityClock.com’s Daily Market Comment
Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2014/09/28/stock-market-outlook-for-september-29-2014/
Economic News This Week
August Personal Income to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Monday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.2% in July. August Personal Spending is expected to increase 0.4% versus a decline of 0.1% in July.
July Canadian GDP is expected to increase 0.2% versus an increase of 0.3% in June.
July Case/Shiller 20 City Home Price Index to b released at 9:00 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase on a year-over-year basis of 7.4% versus a gain of 8.1% in June.
September Chicago PMI to be released at 9:45 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to decline to 61.5 from 64.3 in August.
September Consumer Confidence to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to slip to 92.0 from 92.4 in August.
September ADP Employment Report to be released at 8:15 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to dip to 202,000 from 204,000 in August.
August Construction Spending to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to gain 0.4% versus an increase of 1.8% in July.
Weekly Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase to 297,000 from 293,000 last week.
August Factory Orders to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to fall 9.3% versus a gain of 10.5% in July (influenced by orders for new Boeing aircraft).
September Non-farm Payrolls to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase to 210,000 from 142,000 in August.Private Non-farm Payrolls are expected to increase to 205,000 from 134,000 in August. September Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged from August at 6.1%. September Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.2% in August.
August Trade Deficit to be released at 8:30 AM on Friday is expected to increase to $40.9 billion from $40.5 billion in July
September ISM Services to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to slip to 58.9 from 59.6 in August.
Earnings News This Week
Tuesday: Walgreen
Summary of Weekly Seasonal/Technical Parameters for Equity Indices/ETFs
Key:
Seasonal: Positive, Negative or Neutral on a relative basis applying EquityClock.com charts
Trend: Up, Down or Neutral
Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index: Positive, Negative or Neutral
Momentum based on an average of Stochastics, RSI and MACD: Up, Down or Mixed
Twenty Day Moving Average: Above, Below
Green: Upgrade or higher
Red: Downgrade or lower
The S&P 500 Index fell 27.55 points (1.37%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units fell below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average plunged last week to 44.40% from 62.00%. Percent continues to trend down.
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average plunged last week to 69.40% from 78.20%. Percent continues to trend down.
Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks dropped last week to 70.00% from 73.60% and remained below its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and is trending down.
Bullish Percent Index for TSX Composite stocks plunged last week to 72.13% from 77.05% and remained below its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down.
The TSX Composite Index lost 239.63 points (1.31%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to neutral from up on a move below 15,056.11 (Score: 0.5). The Index remains below its 20 day moving average (Score: 0.0). Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative (Score: 0.0). Technical score based on the above indictors slipped to 0.5 from 1.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down and are oversold.
Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average plunged last week to 25.51% from 36.63%. Percent is deeply oversold, but has yet to show signs of bottoming.
Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average dropped last week to 53.09% from 59.67%. Percent remains intermediate overbought and trending down.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 166.59 points (0.96%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Average remains above their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks was unchanged last week at 83.33% and remained below its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.
Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks dropped last week to 54.06% from 56.51% and remained below its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down.
The NASDAQ Composite Index lost 67.60 points (1.48%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index moved below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to negative from neutral. Technical score fell to 1.0 from 2.5. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
The Russell 2000 Index fell 27.58 points (2.40%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending dow.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average fell 148.92 points (1.72%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Average fell below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from positive. Technical score dropped to 1.5 from 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index plunged 120.70 points (2.22%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to down from neutral on a move below 5,354.70. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score fell to 0.0 from 0.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
The Nikkei Average slipped 91.31 points (0.56%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up, but are overbought.
Europe 350 iShares fell $1.12 (2.40%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Units remain below their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
The Shanghai Composite Index added 18.27 points (0.78%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up, but are overbought.
iShares Emerging Markets fell $1.12 (2.39%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to down from up following breaks below $43.14 and $42.80. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score dropped to 0.0 from 1.0 out of 3.0
Currencies
The U.S. Dollar gained another 0.89 (1.05%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Dollar remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up, but are overbought.
The Euro dropped another 1.49 (1.16%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Euro remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down, but are oversold.
The Canadian Dollar fell another US2.25 cents (2.45%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Canuck Buck remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
The Japanese Yen dropped another 0.29 (0.32%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Yen remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down and are oversold.
Commodities
The CRB Index fell another 0.66 (0.23%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0.
Gasoline gained $0.13 per gallon (5.14%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to neutral from down on a move above $2.635. Gas moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned positive from negative. Technical score improved to 2.5 from 0.0.
Crude Oil added $1.89 per barrel (2.06%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Crude moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index improved to neutral from negative. Technical score improved to 1.5 from 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.
Natural Gas gained $0.14 per MBtu (3.65%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. “Natty” moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral. Technical score improved to 2.5 from 1.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.
The S&P Energy Index fell 12.87 points (1.88%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators continue to trend down.
The Philadelphia Oil Services Index dropped 4.78 points (1.73%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down, but are oversold.
Gold slipped $1.20 per ounce (0.10%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Gold remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down, oversold and showing signs of bottoming.
Silver dropped another $0.30 per ounce (1.68%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Silver remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index and Gold remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down and oversold.
The AMEX Gold Bug Index fell another 6.79 points (3.26%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to down from neutral on a move below 201.65. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index and gold remains negative. Technical score slipped to 0.0 from 2.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down and are deeply oversold.
Platinum fell another $35.30 per ounce (2.64%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. PLAT remains below its 20 day MA. Strength relative to the S&P and Gold remains negative.
Palladium dropped another $28.80 per ounce (3.54%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. PALL remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index and Gold remains negative.
Copper fell $0.05 per lb. (1.62%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Copper remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
The TSX Metals & Mining Index added 2.55 points (0.31%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below is 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down, but are oversold.
Lumber slipped $1.80 (0.55%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Lumber remains below its 20 day MA. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
The Grain ETN lost another $0.82 (2.43%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Units remain below their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
The Agriculture ETF fell $0.65 (1.21%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Units remain below their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
Interest Rates
Yield on 10 year Treasuries slipped 5 basis points (2.01%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Yield remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
Price of the long term Treasury ETF added $1.40 (1.22%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Price remains above its 20 day moving average.
Other Issues
The VIX Index spiked 2.74 (22.63%) last week. ‘Tis the season! Intermediate trend remains up. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average.
Strength in the U.S. Dollar dominates the technical action in equity markets around the world. Full impact has yet to be felt. Watch out for negative earnings and revenue guidance released during the next three weeks by international companies based in the U.S. due mainly to currency conversions. Technology companies are particularly vulnerable.
Seasonal influences between mid-September and at least the first week in October are negative, particularly during mid-term election years.
Earnings news is not a factor this week. Consensus earnings estimates show year-over-year third quarter gains by Dow Jones Industrial Average companies of approximately 4%. Consensus earnings estimates for TSX 60 companies are a gain of 10.4%.
Economic focus this week is on the September employment report to be released on Friday. Consensus is that report will show a strong recovery from a dismal August report. Other than this report, economic data is expected to be mixed. Month-over-month comparisons are becoming difficult due to exceptionally strong data released in September.
Short and intermediate technical signals were bearish last week, but already are approaching oversold levels.
International events (Ukraine, Palestine, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya) remain a fading focus for equity market, but can flare up.
The Bottom Line
A continuing caution for North American equity markets is recommended. A healthy weight in cash and cash equivalents between now and early October makes sense.
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices. To login, simply go tohttp://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Following is an example:
Monitored Technical/Seasonal Trade Ideas
A security must have a Technical Score of 1.5 – 3.0 to be on this list.
Green: Increased Technical Score
Red: Reduced Technical Score
Disclaimer: Comments, charts and opinions offered in this report by www.timingthemarket.ca and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. Don and Jon Vialoux are Research Analysts with Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc.
Individual equities mentioned in StockTwits are not held personally or in HAC.
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC September 26th 2014
Copyright © EquityClock.com
