by Don Vialoux, Timing the Market
Apr 21
(Editorâs Note: Jon Vialoux is scheduled to appear on BNNâs Market Call Tonight at 6:00 PM EDT on Tuesday)
Economic News This Week
March U.S. Leading Indicators to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday are expected to increase to 0.7% versus a gain of 0.5% in February.
March Existing Home Sales to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to ease to 4.55 million from 4.60 million in February
Canadian February Retail Sales to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 1.3% in January.
March New Home Sales to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase to 450,000 from 440,000 in February.
March Durable Goods Orders to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 1.9% versus a gain of 2.2% in February. Excluding Transportation, Orders are expected to increase 0.5% versus a gain of 0.1% in February.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase to 315,000.
April Michigan Consumer Sentiment to be released at 9:55 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase to 83.0 from 82.6.
Earnings News This Week
Equity Trends
The S&P 500 Index gained 49.16 points (2.71%) last week. Trend remains neutral. The Index recovered above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are recovering from slightly oversold levels.
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average recovered last week to 56.20% from 39.20%.
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average recovered last week to 82.00% from 73.00%. Percent remains intermediate overbought.
Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks was unchanged last week at 66.20% and remains below its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down.
Bullish Percent Index for TSX Composite stocks slipped last week to 80.82% from 81.22% and remained above its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.
The TSX Composite Index added 242.70 points (1.70%) last week to close at a six year high (Score: 1.0). The Index recovered above its 20 day moving average (Score: 1.0). Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive (Score: 1.0). Technical score improved to 3.0 from 2.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.
Percent of TSX Composite stocks trading above their 50 day moving average increased last week to 63.52% from 56.97%. Percent remains intermediate overbought.
Percent of TSX Composite stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 79.92% from 77.87%. Percent remains intermediate overbought.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 381.79 points (2.38%) last week. Trend remains neutral. The Average recovered above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score improved to 2.5 from 1.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.
Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial stocks was unchanged last week at 66.67% and remained below its 15 day moving average. Percent remains intermediate overbought and trending down.
Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks fell last week to 53.91% from 55.89% and remained below its 15 day moving average. Percent remains overbought and trending down.
The NASDAQ Composite Index gained 95.59 points (2.39%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 and 50 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are recovering from oversold levels.
The Russell 2000 Index gained 26.46 points (2.38%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 and 50 day moving average. Strength relative to theS&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trying to recover from oversold levels.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average gained 272.03 points (3.69%) last week. Trend remains neutral. The Average moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed from neutral to positive. Technical score improved to 2.5 from 1.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.
The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index added 21.20 points (0.39%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed from positive to neutral. Technical score slipped to 2.5 from 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.
The Nikkei Average added 457.48 points (3.28%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Average remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.
iShares Europe 350 units added $0.83 (1.74%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units moved above their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 31.66 points (1.49%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing signs of rolling over.
iShares Emerging Markets added $0.18 ( 0.43%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and trending down.
Currencies
The U.S. Dollar Index added 0.37 (0.46%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. The Index remains below its 20 and 50 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.
The Euro slipped 0.71 (0.51%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Euro remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.
The Canadian Dollar fell US 0.30 cents (0.33%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. The Canuck Buck remains above its 20 and 50 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.75 (0.76%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Yen remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.
Commodities
The CRB Index added 2.17 (0.70%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0.
Gasoline gained $0.04 per gallon (1.33%) last week. Intermediate uptrend was confirmed on a move above $3.05. Gasoline remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0.
Crude Oil added $0.56 per barrel (0.54%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. Crude remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are overbought.
Natural Gas added $0.12 (2.60%) last week. Intermediate trend remains negative, but changes to neutral on a move above $4.74. Gas remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 2.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.
The S&P Energy Index gained 30.32 points (4.67%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are overbought.
The Philadelphia Oil Services Index gained 13.68 points (4.83%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score improved to 3.0 from 2.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are overbought.
Gold fell $25.10 per ounce (1.91%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Gold fell below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed from positive to neutral. Technical score fell to 1.5 from 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are neutral.
Silver fell $0.35 per ounce (1.75%) last week. Trend changed from up to down on a move below $19.57. Silver remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed from neutral to negative. Technical score fell to 0.0 from 1.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed. Strength relative to Gold remains negative.
The AMEX Gold Bug Index fell 5.76 points (2.55%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Strength relative to Gold remains negative.
Platinum dropped $33.90 per ounce (2.32%) last week. Trend remains up. Platinum fell below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed from positive to negative. Technical score falls to 2.0. Strength relative to Gold remains positive
Palladium added $0.30 (0.04%) last week. Trend remains up. Palladium remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 and Gold remains positive. Score: 3.0
Copper added $0.01 per lb. (0.33%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Copper remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed from positive to neutral. Technical score slipped to 1.5 from 2.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.
The TSX Metals & Minerals added 22.91 points (2.81%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 2.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are overbought.
Lumber added $1.40 (0.43%) last week. Trend remains negative. Lumber remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral.
The Grain ETN added $1.14 (2.31%) last week. Trend remains up. Units moved above their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score increased to 3.0 from 2.0 out of 3.0.
The Agriculture ETF gained $0.14 (0.26%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score improved to 3.0 from 2.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are neutral.
Interest Rates
The yield on 10 year Treasuries added 10.2 basis points (3.89%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Yield remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.
Conversely, price of the long term Treasury fell $0.68 (0.61%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units remain above their 20 day moving average.
Other Issues
The VIX Index plunged 3.07 (21.60%) last week. The Index fell below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.
First quarter reports by S&P 500 companies will flood in this week. Reports by TSX companies will start to trickle in. Earnings results to date for TSX companies have been encouraging. 63% or reporting companies exceeded consensus, 14% met consensus and 23% were lower than consensus. Look for more of the same this week.
Despite gains by broadly based U.S. and Canadian equity indices last week, technical action by individual equities was mixed, Break outs and breakdowns were approximately equal.
Intermediate technical indicators remain overbought.
Historically during mid-term U.S. Presidential Cycle years, U.S. equity indices have reached an intermediate high near the middle of April followed by a correction that lasts until October.
Economic news is expected to confirm a rebound in the U.S. economy from December/early March weather-depressed levels.
International focus this week is on Ukraine, the Eurozone Flash Manufacturing Index on Wednesday and the Flash HSBC China Manufacturing Index on Wednesday.
The Bottom Line
Chances are high that broadly based U.S. equity indices reached an intermediate peak on April 4th. Any strength this week is an opportunity to reduce positions.
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NASDAQ Biotechnology Seasonal Chart
^NBI Relative to the S&P 500  |
Disclaimer: Comments, charts and opinions offered in this report by www.timingthemarket.ca and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. Don and Jon Vialoux are Research Analysts with Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons ETFs Investment Management (Canada) Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons ETFs Investment Management (Canada) Inc.
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC April 17th 2014
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