Archive for September 20th, 2012
Worst Mistakes Parents Make When Talking to Kids, and other Weekend Reads
Thursday, September 20th, 2012
Here are this week’s reading diversions for your personal enlightenment. Have a super duper weekend!
Eating Less Red Meat Could Benefit Health And Environment, Study Suggests
Cutting down the amount of red meat we eat not only affects our physical health, but also the health of the environment, a new study from the United Kingdom suggests.
*****
Feeling Tired? It’s Probably What You Ate / Nutrition
Food sensitivities are another area that can make a person tired and fatigued. When your body is sick of being exposed to certain foods or chemicals, it can create inflammation in the form of irritable bowel syndrome, migraines, or fibromyalgia that make you feel run down. Many of my clients report having “lots more energy” after they’ve gone through the first several days of a food elimination diet. Your liver and kidneys have to do a lot of filtering all day, so it’s best to keep chemicals and additives out of your diet to be able to keep energy levels up.
*****
High Blood Pressure Causes, Symptoms, Treatment – High Blood Pressure Causes on eMedicineHealth
In 90% of people with hypertension, the cause of high blood pressure is not known and is referred to as primary or essential hypertension. While the specific cause is unknown, there are risk factors that can contribute to developing high blood pressure.
*****
Strengthforcaring.com – Caring for Others – Coping with Crohn’s Disease
With the treatment options available today, most people with Crohn’s disease can live healthy and fulfilling lives. Sometimes though, it’s the psychological aspect that most affects a person who has a chronic illness. You may have to learn coping strategies to deal with embarrassing or painful symptoms. You also may have to learn how to tame your fear of possible surgeries, cancer, or unexpected complications of your disease.
*****
Natural Remedies to Prevent and Relieve Heartburn, Gas and Other Digestive Woes – iVillage
If you struggle with heartburn, you might be hesitant to chug something acidic, like apple cider vinegar.
*****
Hydration 101: How Much Water Do You Really Need?
It may surprise you to learn that there has never been any scientific evidence to support the “eight by eight” doctrine when it comes to proper hydration.
*****
David Wolfe’s 10 Immunity Superheroes You Never Heard of (But Should) | Gaiam Life
Your immune system is vast and complex. It is designed to detoxify your body as well as protect it from illness and foreign invaders.
*****
Foods For Liver: 10 Foods For A Healthy And Clean Liver
Suri says avoiding an excessive consumption of tobacco, alcohol, coffee and white sugar and adding in low impact exercises (like daily walks) and drinking lots of water are all ways to ensure good liver health.
*****
Warning Signs of a Stroke – Oprah.com
Dr. Taylor uses the word “stroke” to describe what symptoms to look for in those suffering from a stroke.
*****
Essentially, myokymia is a twitch — an involuntary muscle spasm in the upper eyelid muscle that causes a fluttery sensation. The trick to stopping it, according to Thau, is to “break the twitch.” She recommends trying alternating hot and cold compresses, which can soothe the overactive nerve that’s causing the spasm. If that doesn’t work, “try drinking a glass of tonic water,” she recommends. “The quinine helps nerve impulses.”
*****
Healthy habits pay off after age 75 – Health – CBC News
Living a healthy lifestyle can add five years to women’s lives and six years to men’s, researchers report in Thursday’s issue of the British Medical Journal.
*****
5 signs you’ll develop diabetes | Diabetes | Get Healthy | Best Health
Have you ever stopped to take stock of your risk factors for diabetes? By 2012, almost three million Canadians will know they have the disease. Will you be one of them? Here are five signs you might develop diabetes
*****
Secret Powers of Seeds | Reader’s Digest
Send in the seeds! Like nuts, they are emerging as nutritional superstars. Packed with protein, good fat, and fibre, they’re just what the doctor ordered
*****
Menopause: How to take charge and keep the… | Chatelaine.com
Changes in hormones also affect the strength of bones, heart health and blood sugar levels. That makes menopause management two-fold: It’s about addressing changes in quality of life and controlling disease risk. Now is the time to be vigilant for hormone-driven cancers (regular screening is often advised), osteoporosis from declining growth hormone and calcium levels, and cardiovascular- and diabetes-related issue from rising cholesterol and stress hormone levels.
*****
Healthy breakfast ideas: Eight ingredients to… | Chatelaine.com
Bottom line: I recommend adding a half cup of blueberries daily to your smoothie, topping your yogurt or enjoying them as a side dish to your breakfast. As an added bonus to boosting brain power, blueberries are the only berry I have seen proven in studies to aid the hormonal balance that shreds belly fat too.
*****
Worst Mistakes Parents Make When Talking to Kids | Psychology Today
Effective listening involves all of the non-verbals, such as maintaining eye contact, conveying understanding with our faces and voices, and using words to reflect our understanding. This parent is teaching her kid not to bother her, and that the things that are important to him are not important to her. This can make a kid feel alone and not good enough.
*****
Is Money the Secret to Happiness | Psychology Today
Find a Therapist
Search for a mental health professional near you.
Find Local:
- Acupuncturists
- Chiropractors
- Massage Therapists
- Dentists
- and more!
To answer this question, I looked at recent large research studies conducted by The Gallup Organization and researchers at Princeton and University of British Columbia, as well as experimental studies manipulating what people were asked to do with ‘found” money to shed light on the money-happiness link. These studies looked at the money-happiness link from different angles, suggesting the answer depends on how you frame the question.
*****
Good Health Habits at Age 60 and Beyond — FamilyDoctor.org
Regular physical activity is also good for your brain. Studies have shown that people who do simple exercises (for example, walking briskly) on a regular basis are better able to make decisions than people who aren’t physically active
*****
Tags: Canadian, Canadian Market
Posted in Markets | Comments Off
Retail Investors “Just Say No” To Bernanke’s Artificial Wealth Effect
Thursday, September 20th, 2012
And so the great standoff continues. On one hand, the Chairman will literally do anything and everything to get the retail investor to break their 4 year boycott of stocks, and come rushing back to the artificial and fabricated safety of an endlessly rising market: after all he has gone so far as to implicitly guarantee that there will never be a -1% day in the market ever again: all natural market forces will be crushed in the pursuit of the great asset bubble-based “wealth effect.” On the other hand, the retail investor, older, wiser, and most importantly poorer, observing inexplicable and unpunished daily flash crashes across the numerous ‘highly frequently traded‘ asset classes, still recovering from a market in which everyone told him to buy only to see a 50% loss in months, with ever less disposable income, is no longer interested in said “wealth effect” proposition, or any other proposition premised on the artificial manipulation of the political construct once upon a time known as the market, no matter how many personal guarantees of perpetual QEasing the Chairsatan will hand out. The culmination: the week ended September 12 domestic equity mutual funds saw the 8th consecutive outflow from stocks, amounting to $2.8 billion, and 32nd outflow of 37 weekly readings in 2012. The brings the total cumulative outflow year to date to $92 billion. The same period in 2011 had a total outflow of $79 billion, even though the market now is not only higher than it was in 2011, but the highest it has been since 2007.
Past two years:
And longer-term:
Of course, if the retail investor was still as dumb as everyone believes is the case (and still had money to invest in stocks), this cumulative outflow would be far smaller. It isn’t, and that in itself is a testament that more than the absolute level of the S&P, the now virtually extinct investor class has always been far more interested in knowing how it got there. It appears that dollar dilution and outright manipulation just don’t cut it when trying to inspire confidence in investing in stocks any longer. Or ever. Who would have thunk it…
Sadly what this means is that the lunatics in the Marriner Eccles building, who will not take no for an answer, will continue with their artificial inflation of equities, until such time as the retail herd comes storming back. Which it won’t, and can’t. And the charade will continue until it can no longer be perpetuated. At that point equities will finally tumble to fair values, and then, and only then, will the retail investor finally return to the stock market.
Copyright © Zerohedge.com
Tags: Equities, Qe, Quantitative Easing
Posted in Markets | Comments Off
QE Infinity is Nothing New
Thursday, September 20th, 2012
by Guy Lerner, The Technical Take
A lot has been made of the fact that QE3 is open ended. It can go on for as long as our financial stewards deem appropriate. Many have dubbed this QE – infinity, and in the end, maybe that is what we will get as many have questioned whether QE is the right tool to do the job of improving the economy and lowering unemployment. Like the Energizer Bunny, QE will just keep going and going and going.
QE – infinity is the wow factor of last week’s announcement, but it really isn’t anything new. Ever since QE2 came on the radar screen back at Jackson Hole 2010, the Fed has been implementing some sort of liquidity operation nearly 90% of the time. Starting with the expectation of QE2 back in August, 2010, the markets have been focusing on and influenced by QE in some form or another. QE – infinity didn’t start last week. It started in August, 2010, and it has been with us for 97 out of the last 108 weeks. The only difference between last week’s QE3 announcement and the past 2 years is that the Fed is acknowledging that QE will be open ended even though it has been essentially open ended for the past 2 years anyway.
The next figure is a weekly chart of the SP500. The yellow vertical line is Jackson Hole 2010 when Ben Bernanke hinted at QE2. The green vertical line is the actual FOMC meeting where the Fed announced a $600 billion program to purchase Treasurys. The red line is the completion of that program (QE2) in June, 2011. Then the markets went 11 weeks without any kind of intervention or liquidity operation. Oops! That wasn’t such a good idea. September, 2011 brought us Operation Twist (the dark gray vertical line) and June, 2012 saw the extension of that program (the light gray vertical line). The green vertical line is Jackson Hole 2012. The blue vertical line is the start of QE3.
Figure 1. SP500/ weekly
In essence, we have had QE- infinity for the last 2 years. We just didn’t know it.
Tags: Qe, Quantitative Easing
Posted in Markets | Comments Off
S&P 1500 Stocks With the Highest Short Interest (Bespoke)
Thursday, September 20th, 2012
Short interest figures for the month of August were released late last week, and below we highlight the thirty stocks in the S&P 1500 with the highest short interest as a percentage of float. Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI) has the highest SIPF at close to 55%, and is followed by more widely followed stocks like OpenTable (OPEN) at 49.8%, First Solar (FSLR) at 48.8%, and KB Home (KBH) at 44.4%. Other notable names on this month’s list include JC Penney (JCP), Boston Beer (SAM), Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR), Coinstar (CSTR) and Netflix (NFLX).
Looking at the list based on market cap, five of the stocks are in the S&P 500 large cap index, nine are mid caps, while 16 are small caps. This is a typical breakdown as you normally see greater short interest in smaller cap stocks. In terms of sector breakdown, 26 of the 30 stocks on the list come from just three sectors. More than half of the stocks on the list (16) are in the Consumer Discretionary sector, while Consumer Staples and Technology each have five stocks on the list.
Copyright © Bespoke Investment Group
Posted in Markets | Comments Off
The Most Overbought Stocks in Today’s Market
Thursday, September 20th, 2012
The stock market continues to trade well into overbought territory, and the average stock in the Russell 1,000 is now 5.5% above its 50-day moving average (that’s a lot). Below are the Russell 1,000 stocks that are currently the farthest above their 50-day moving averages. As shown, Allied Nevada Gold (ANV) ranks first at 31.27% above its 50-day, followed by Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR), Tahoe Resources (TAHO) and Pulte Homes (PHM).
For each stock on the list, we also include how far it is from its 52-week high. This way you can see if it is overbought in the midst of a long-term uptrend or a long-term downtrend.
Below are price charts of the ten Russell 1,000 stocks that are at least 15% above their 50-days and within 10% of their 52-week highs. As you can see, they’re all very extended here in the short term.
Copyright © Bespoke Investment Group
Seasonally Speaking, Next Three Weeks are Typically The Weakest of the Year
Thursday, September 20th, 2012
Upcoming US Events for Today:
- Weekly Jobless Claims will be released at 8:30am. The market expects Initial Claims to show 373K versus 382K previous. Continuing Claims are expedted to reveal 3293K versus 3283K previous.
- The Philadelphia Fed Index for September will be released at 10:00am. The market expects –4.0 versus –7.1 previous.
- Leading Indicators for August will be released at 10:00am. The market expects no change (0.0%) versus an increase of 0.4% previous.
Upcoming International Events for Today:
- German Producer Price Index for August will be released at 2:00am EST. The market expects a year-over-year increase of 1.5% versus 0.9% previous.
- German PMI Manufacturing for September will be released at 3:30am. The market expects 45.2 versus 44.7 previous.
- Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing for September will be released at 4:00am EST. The market expects 45.5 versus 45.1 previous.
- Great Britain Retail Sales for August will be released at 4:30am EST. The market expects a year-over-year increase of 3.2% versus 3.3% previous.
- Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence for September will be released at 10:00am EST. The market expects –24 versus –24.6 previous.
The Markets
Markets traded marginally higher on Wednesday, driven primarily by Consumer Discretionary stocks following a much better than expected report on Existing Home Sales. Homebuilders such as Pulte, Lennar, and Toll Brother pushed strongly higher, attacking multi-year highs that have been established over the past few trading sessions. Increasingly the housing industry is showing signs of recovering with Existing Sales hitting the highest level since early 2010 and back to levels witnessed prior to the 2008/2009 recession. Housing starts are also holding around the highest levels since the recession began. Seasonal tendencies for the home building industry, however, are less than favorable over the next month or so as the summer selling season concludes. Following the month-long “swoon”, the stocks see their best seasonal gains during the fourth quarter of the year as investors begin anticipating the spring building season.
Over the past couple of days markets have seen momentum starting to show signs of decline. Price is stagnating. Seasonally, equity markets are within the weakest three week period of the year, which concludes just past the first week of October. Weakness has also been known to persist throughout October, resulting in an intermediate-term bottom that is often realized just prior to the end of the month. Given this seasonal framework and technicals for a number of asset classes starting to see momentum rolling over, probability is high that a selloff/correction will occur in the weeks ahead, potentially related to earnings caution. FedEx has been a recent prominent company touting weak economic fundamentals and earnings caution. Another transportation stock confirmed what FedEx was saying on Wednesday after the closing bell. Railroad operator Norfolk Southern warned that earnings would trail analyst estimates due to weakness in coal and merchandise shipments. An unrelated company, Adobe, also issued an earnings forecast on Wednesday that also missed analyst estimates. Oracle, a industry titan, will report earnings on Thursday after the market close, a report that is typically a leading indictor of the strength within the technology sector going into the seasonally favouable fourth quarter.
Weakness in equity markets over the next few weeks may be fueled by recent destabilization in commodity markets. The price of light crude oil has dropped from a recent high of just over $100 to $92 as of yesterday’s close, representing an 8% decline in just three sessions. A number of commodities have become stretched to the upside, trading into overbought territory after benefitting from recent declines in the US Dollar. The dollar in showing signs of rebounding from significantly oversold conditions. Commodities in general are due for some kind of pause/consolidation after recent runs higher. The CRB Commodity Index is already showing signs of declining relative performance compared with equities, typically a leading indicator to broad market weakness, in both commodities and equities. Positive seasonal tendencies for Oil conclude around this time of year and metals, such as Gold and Silver, have been know to weaken in the month of October. The US Dollar index also concludes seasonal declines at the end of September, seasonally trading flat over the course of October and November. We are nearing logical points for the commodity complex to correct and the recent breakdown in Oil may already be signaling that consolidation is already upon us. The price of Oil had been trading within a rising wedge ever since the June lows, a pattern that has now been broken to the downside, implying a retracement anywhere between present values and the summer lows is possible before the commodity moves higher.
So with the increased probability of some kind of pullback in equity markets over the weeks ahead, particularly following futures and options expiration on Friday, investors are likely to take profits in various cyclical areas of the market and trade temporarily back into defensive areas in order to protect recent gains. On Wednesday, the Consumer Staple ETF and the Utilities ETF saw volumes ‘pop’, signaling renewed investor interest. Both Staples and Utilities can perform well relative to the market between now and the middle of October, making this an interesting place to hide should a multi-week correction take hold.
Sentiment on Wednesday, according to the put-call ratio, ended overly bullish at 0.68. Complacency is at an extreme. Not only is this the lowest ratio this year, but it is the lowest ratio since options and futures expiration week of July 2011, just prior to the significant plunge in the month of August. Extreme sentiment shifts, such as this, open up the possibility for shock events as investors drop negative bets and hedges. Any negative news events could pinch recent equity markets gains, perhaps initiating the multi-week correction that seasonal tendencies suggest. Any weakness that is realized in the weeks to come is likely to be in-line with the intermediate positive trend, meaning that losses beyond the lower limit of the almost four month old trend channel on the S&P 500 Index is probably unreasonable unless a significant negative catalyst becomes known. The chart for the S&P 500 Index is shown below.
S&P 500 Index
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
TSE Composite
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF (TSX:HAC)
- Closing Market Value: $12.62 (down 0.16%)
- Closing NAV/Unit: $12.64 (up 0.23%)
Performance*
| 2012 Year-to-Date | Since Inception (Nov 19, 2009) | |
| HAC.TO | 3.81% | 26.4% |
* performance calculated on Closing NAV/Unit as provided by custodian
Click Here to learn more about the proprietary, seasonal rotation investment strategy developed by research analysts Don Vialoux, Brooke Thackray, and Jon Vialoux.
Tags: Commodities, energy, Equities, ETF, ETFs, Gold, Natural Gas, oil, TechTalk
Posted in Markets | Comments Off
The New Con: Three-Card-Mario
Thursday, September 20th, 2012
Via Mark J. Grant, author of Out of the Box
The Red Ink in Europe
Sometimes you look at different stories and your focus is on the particular tilt of the headline. Recently there have been posts about the declining exports in both China and Japan and the slant has been on these two countries; some further consideration, however, also tells another story.
The exports by China to Europe were down almost 18% last month and, in some cases such as Italy, the decline was almost 38%. Today Japan reported out its export numbers and their shipments to Europe declined by 28% with Germany off 18% and the UK off 42%. These are quite steep declines and not insignificant numbers from two of the major economies in the world. Then if you consider the recent contractions in Europe, which are fairly minor, you begin to add up numbers that do not jibe. The discrepancy cannot be defended based upon internal demand or demand from other European nations or from America so, unless there is a significant lag time which would mean that the upcoming GDP numbers in Europe are going to horrid, something is amiss. While, in the past, I have calculated more accurate debt to GDP figures for a number of countries in Europe including all of their liabilities, current and contingent; I have never questioned the accuracy of their GDP data before and I have accepted it prima facie as provided. Now, however, I am beginning to wonder if that was a mistake.
Each nation in Europe compiles their own GDP figures and it is checked by no one. This data is accepted by Eurostat and the BIS as given. This only changes when the EU and/or the IMF lends some country money and then they are audited by outside sources. It is my opinion, such as with Spain that this is one of the primary reasons that Spain and also Italy are so reluctant to ask for funding. They want the capital no doubt but without a full blown bailout; they are scared to death of the audit and the actual numbers becoming public. Spain, we already know, engages in “dynamic provisioning” so that their data is highly suspect as they publically admit to making changes in the national ledger and their banks’ ledgers as they see fit. In the case of Spain, I pointed out a year ago that the property values in Spain did not match with the valuations of property on the books of the Spanish banks and that eventually came to public attention. In the case of the export fall-off from China and Japan to Europe I suspect the same type of thing; European GDP’s not exactly as stated and perhaps way overblown in an attempt to mollify investors.
Three Card Mario
“One of the classic short cons, three-card Mario is a new swindle that uses official and misleading statements and trickery to swindle victims out of large amounts of cash. It’s one of the oldest cons around, and dates back to “the shell game,” a similar scheme that was popular during the Middle Ages. The new version uses a Central Bank and a Ponzi Scheme that loans money for debt, substitutes debt for collateral and then returns cash back to the grifter as he pledges the collateral back to those that lent him the money. This new European con has eliminated the use of cards in its play. Investors are the ‘marks’ and governments are the perpetrators.”
-The Wizard
Following the Bouncing Ball in Madrid
There was the usual fluff this morning concerning the Spanish bond auction and the yields were down almost one full percent for their ten year. Many are attributing this to the recent action of the ECB with their “conditional” no cap and unlimited language. This is likely part of the story but certainly not all of it as we size up what is going on. Data published Tuesday by the Spanish Central Bank showed that non-performing loans rose to 169.33 billion euros ($222.13 billion) in July, or 9.9% of outstanding loans, from EUR168.37 billion in June. The data also showed that July deposits stood at EUR1.287 trillion, down 7.8% from a year earlier. Given this data I am forced to wonder how is it then that their funding rate has declined so dramatically and the answer is beyond the recent jawboning of the ECB in my opinion.
In August the Spanish banks borrowed $531.77 billion from the ECB which compares to $520 billion a month earlier and $106 billion just one year ago. This is a new record high and it represents 34% of all of the borrowings at the European Central Bank. So the game becomes apparent; the Spanish banks borrow from the ECB, they buy the sovereign debt of Spain and we have “Euroloans” which is the approved replacement for Eurobonds. I submit this morning that “Euroloans” are the strategy, the mechanism, and even the “con” if you will that is taking place in Europe. Germany is accountable for 22% of the ECB and they make their case for no Eurobonds on the basis of not assuming the liabilities of other nations but this is not an accurate statement; they have substituted, along with the ECB, “Euroloans” for Eurobonds while denying liability which is, in fact, incorrect. The banks borrow from the ECB, they buy the debt of their country, they submit the sovereign debt as collateral at the ECB or to Target2 for more funding and they receive the cash back on their balance sheets. Utilizing this circle of borrowing, buying debt, use of it as collateral and then receiving their money back they have replicated Eurobonds and have just employed a different strategy to accomplish it.
“But you’re a con man! And you blew it like a pimp!”
-The Sting
Posted in Markets | Comments Off
More Japan QE
Thursday, September 20th, 2012
by Mark Hanna, Market Montage
It is all getting a bit “jump over the shark” at this point. Overnight the Bank of Japan announced additional QE as countries and regions are now engaging in a form of currency war. Each time a country/region QE’s their currency takes a hit, so other competing countries/regions must counteract that by also trying to weaken their own currency as all the world wants to export their way out of recessions or slowdowns. Of course this is impossible to do as someone needs to import. So this appears like nothing more than a weak attempt to try to weaken the yen to some degree but no one other than the ECB could in theory reach the magnitude of QE as the U.S., so it seems doubtful to have much effect. But QEn Global is in effect.
Via CNBC Asia:
- Under pressure to ease monetary policy in the face of a strong yen, Japan’s central bank said Wednesday it would expand its asset-buying program, which resulted in the currency falling to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar in a month. Analysts warned, however, that this could just be a temporary drop.
- Given the aggressive easing from the U.S.Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank over the past two weeks, the Bank of Japan’s latest effort to weaken the yen may prove to be futile, say experts. “The BOJ action is an insufficient step in the right direction. We’re talking about unlimited easing by the ECB, the Fed and then you have in Japan a limited approach,” Hans Redeker, head of global foreign-exchange strategy at Morgan Stanley, told CNBC.
- The BOJ boosted its asset-buying and loan program by a more-than-expected 10 trillion yen ($126 billion) to 80 trillion. It also extended the deadline for asset purchases by six months to the end of 2013.
- Economists argued, however, that this will not be enough given the Fed’s decision to engage in open-ended quantitative easing, and the ECB’s pledge to make unlimited purchases of euro zone government bonds in the secondary market. Junko Nishioka, chief Japan economist at RBS Securities Japan, agrees that it’s getting harder for the BOJ to fight a surging yen.
Copyright © Market Montage
Tags: Qe, Quantitative Easing
Posted in Markets | Comments Off
Major Automakers Firm Up
Thursday, September 20th, 2012
by Mark Hanna, Market Montage
There are 2 main cyclical drivers of the domestic market – autos and housing. We’ve been mentioning how well housing has been acting much of the year. Well look who suddenly is acting better as well – the major automakers. These names have been in the doghouse much of the year due to their European exposure but have cut so many costs (read: labor) domestically during the Great Recession that 14-15M a year in U.S. car sales (versus peak levels of 16-17M) is going to be a very profitable level for their business.
Specific to GM of course, they dumped a lot of debt in their government orchestrated restructure. Also reading a lot locally how subprime is back in a big way in the auto loan market because lenders notice now how car loans have come before home loans in importance to people if forced to pick one. We’ve talked about this many times in the past 3-4 years – a sea change in attitude, especially for those who put nothing down in the heydey of the housing boom. Hence, nothing to lose. Even now, you need a car to get to work and repossession happens much faster with a car than a house.
Copyright © Market Montage
Posted in Markets | Comments Off
